Winner: Ketlen Souza
Confidence Score: 68Ketlen Souza holds significant statistical advantages in this matchup. She boasts a much higher significant strike accuracy (56% vs 39%) and better significant strike defense (53% vs 44%) compared to Ariane Carnelossi. Souza also has a reach advantage (arm reach 63" vs 61.5"), which is relevant in a striking-heavy contest. While Carnelossi is more aggressive with takedowns (50% accuracy), her takedown defense is extremely low (23%), suggesting she can be controlled or taken down if Souza chooses to mix in grappling. Both have similar finishing rates and are close in age, but Souza's recent performances and the overall trend in UFC women's strawweight bouts favor fighters with superior striking accuracy and defensive metrics. Souza's style and statistical profile are better suited for a three-round decision or late finish, especially against opponents with porous striking defense like Carnelossi.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Muhammad vs Bonfim can be found on the Muhammad vs Bonfim event page.
