Winner: Josh Hokit
Confidence Score: 67Josh Hokit is an undefeated, younger heavyweight with a strong wrestling base and a high finish rate (6 of 9 wins in the first round). He boasts superior significant strike accuracy (62% vs 50%), better strike defense, and a much higher takedown defense (75% vs 52%) than Derrick Lewis. While Lewis has massive knockout power (24 KOs) and a big size/reach advantage, his recent form is inconsistent and his takedown defense has been a persistent weakness against strong wrestlers. Historically, younger, undefeated heavyweights with a wrestling style and high takedown defense have a strong win rate against aging power punchers with declining durability. Hokit's ability to control where the fight takes place, combined with his finishing instincts and superior defense, make him the more likely winner, though Lewis' power always poses a threat and keeps the confidence below 70%.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for UFC Freedom 250 can be found on the UFC Freedom 250 event page.
