Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz Betting Odds & Fight Analysis

Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, May 2, 2026, fight fans will turn their attention to Western Australia as the ultimate Middleweight prospect showdown takes center stage at the RAC Arena in Perth. Kicking off the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs Prates, this intriguing bout is scheduled to begin at 8:00 Z (UTC), pitting Australia’s newcomer Ben Johnston against American grappling specialist Wes Schultz. With both men boasting contrasting styles and impressive finishing prowess, this clash offers an early glimpse of fireworks for those tuning in.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Della Maddalena vs Prates
• Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
• Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
• Start Time (Prelims): 8:00 Z (UTC)
• Division: Middleweight (185 lb)

Betting Lines: Favorite vs. Underdog

Heading into this matchup, sportsbooks have installed Ben Johnston as the clear favorite, with his moneyline averaging around –165 across major bookmakers (Bovada, Caesars, FanDuel). On the flip side, Wes Schultz enters as the underdog, trading in the +130 to +140 range depending on the book. Those looking to back the Aussie striker will need Johnston to justify the odds, while value seekers might eye Schultz’s superior submission résumé at a tempting long price.

Fighter Profiles

• Ben Johnston (5-1-0): A 35-year-old striker from Brisbane making his UFC debut on home soil. Johnston’s pro record features four submission triumphs and one knockout, underscoring his deadly ground game and opportunistic finishing instincts.
• Wes Schultz (8-3-0): A 29-year-old American with a well-rounded MMA background. Schultz has rattled off five submissions and two knockouts, charting six first-round stoppages in his eight career wins. His only UFC appearance ended in a loss to Damian Pinas, but Schultz has since sharpened his takedown offense (25 % accuracy) and boasts a respectable 44 % significant strike accuracy.

Why This Fight Matters

As a preliminary card highlight, this Middleweight clash carries significant implications for both men. Johnston aims to kick off his UFC tenure with a statement victory in front of a passionate Australian crowd. A win would instantly vault the 35-year-old into the conversation for more prominent matchups on future cards. Conversely, Schultz is determined to shake off his UFC debut setback and reassert himself as a rising contender in the 185 lb ranks. His blend of submission expertise and improving stand-up makes him a dangerous test for any debuting prospect.

With styles set to collide—Johnston’s aggressive striking and submission transitions versus Schultz’s grappling pedigree and early-fight explosiveness—this bout promises to set the tone for a thrilling night of action in Perth. Whether you’re backing the hometown favorite or chasing an upset with the underdog, this is one Middleweight scrap you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates can be found on the Della Maddalena vs Prates event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Fighter Backgrounds

Ben Johnston

• Age: 35
• Country: Australia (Brisbane)
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Division: Middleweight

Making his UFC debut on home soil, Johnston brings a professional record of 5-1-0 into the Octagon. A late bloomer at 35, he has quickly established himself in the regional scene with a résumé featuring four submission wins and a lone knockout. Though his UFC statistics are not yet registered, Johnston’s pro background highlights a fighter comfortable both standing and on the mat.

Wes Schultz

• Age: 29
• Country: United States (Madison)
• Fighting Style: MMA (Grappling-oriented)
• Division: Middleweight

Schultz enters his sophomore UFC appearance after a loss on debut. At 8-3-0, the 6’2’’ American blends grappling pedigree—five career submissions—with knockout power. Schultz has already shown early-fight explosiveness, boasting six first-round finishes in eight wins.

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Recent Form

Ben Johnston (5-1-0)
Last five fights (pre-UFC):

1. Win – Submission (RNC) – March 2026
2. Win – Unanimous Decision – January 2026
3. Win – TKO (Punches) – November 2025
4. Win – Submission (Arm-Triangle) – September 2025
5. Loss – Split Decision – July 2025

Johnston rode a four-fight finish streak before narrowly dropping his fifth pro outing. His penchant for early finishes underscores aggressive striking transitions into submissions.

Wes Schultz (8-3-0)
Last five fights:

1. Loss – Unanimous Decision vs. Damian Pinas (UFC debut, Feb. 2026)
2. Win – Submission (Armbar) – December 2025
3. Win – Submission (Guillotine) – October 2025
4. Loss – TKO (Ground & Pound) – August 2025
5. Win – Unanimous Decision – June 2025

Schultz displayed dominant grappling in regional bouts but ran into a well-rounded Pinas in his Octagon bow. His two recent submission victories highlight a clear path to victory.

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Strengths and Weaknesses

Ben Johnston
Strengths:

• Veteran Striker: With a knockout and multiple decision wins, Johnston’s stand-up is polished.
• Submission Savvy: Four career taps via choke or joint lock make transitions dangerous.
• Composure: Despite being 35, he has shown calm pressure and fight-finishing instincts.

Weaknesses:

• UFC Inexperience: No Octagon rounds under his belt means untested against top-tier athletes.
• Age/Durability: At 35, recovery between camps may be slower, and pace late in fights could suffer.
• Cardio Uncertainty: Average fight time data unavailable; extended rounds and pace are unproven.

Wes Schultz
Strengths:

• Submission Specialist: Five career submission wins, with a high first-round finish rate (75%).
• Finishing Urgency: An average fight time of 4:25 shows he attacks early and decisively.
• Physical Tools: Solid 77” reach and athletic frame allow for effective clinch and ground control.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: A 46% significant strike defense suggests vulnerability to clean shots.
• Takedown Efficiency: At 25% accuracy, his wrestling entries can be stuffed by experienced strikers.
• Octagon Adjustments: Lack of successful takedown defense (0%) may expose him when opponents chain strikes and grappling.

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This clash of styles—Johnston’s striking-submission hybrid against Schultz’s grappling urgency—presents an intriguing chess match. Johnston must leverage his veteran acumen and submission instincts, while Schultz will look to dictate with early wrestling and avoid sapping exchanges. Both fighters carry clear paths to victory, setting the stage for a compelling Middleweight showdown on the Perth preliminary card.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of April 28, 2026, Ben Johnston is the clear favorite across major sportsbooks, while Wes Schultz sits firmly on the underdog line. Here’s how the moneylines stack up:

• Ben Johnston (Favorite)

• Bovada: –165
• Caesars: –160
• BetRivers: –182
• BetUS: –150 ← Best value for betting the favorite
• BetMGM: –160
• FanDuel: –174

• Wes Schultz (Underdog)

• Bovada: +140
• Caesars: +135
• BetRivers: +145 ← Best value for betting the underdog
• BetUS: +126
• BetMGM: +135
• FanDuel: +136

Johnston’s line ranges from –150 to –182, implying a roughly 60–65% chance to win. Schultz’s range (+126 to +145) reflects a 41–44% implied probability. Bettors looking to back the Aussie striker should target BetUS (–150) for the biggest payout on the favorite. Conversely, those chasing an upset with Schultz will find the juiciest return at BetRivers (+145).

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking line movement reveals where the sharp money has flowed:

• Ben Johnston

• Bovada: –172 → –170 → –168 → –165 (7-point shift)
• Caesars: –185 → –180 → –165 → –160 (25-point shift)
• BetUS: –185 → –180 → –175 → –160 → –165 → –160 → –150 (35-point swing)

• Wes Schultz

• Bovada: +147 → +145 → +142 → +140 (7-point shift)
• Caesars: +155 → +150 → +140 → +135 (20-point shift)
• BetUS: +154 → +150 → +146 → +134 → +138 → +134 → +126 (28-point swing)

Early on, Johnston opened as a hefty favorite, but a steady influx of bets on Schultz has narrowed the gap—especially on Caesars and BetUS, where Schultz’s line has dropped over 20 points. This suggests confidence in Schultz’s grappling upside or value-seeking bettors looking for a mid-tier upset.

Potential Payouts and Implied Chances

If you were to risk $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what you’d get back:

• Bet $1,000 on Ben Johnston at –150 (BetUS):
– Payout: ~$1,667 total ($667 profit)
– Implied win probability: ~60%

• Bet $1,000 on Wes Schultz at +145 (BetRivers):
– Payout: $2,450 total ($1,450 profit)
– Implied win probability: ~41%

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For the favorite (Johnston): BetUS’s –150 line offers the smallest vig on a negative dog, translating to the highest net return if Johnston wins.
• For the underdog (Schultz): BetRivers at +145 stands out, giving you the largest upside on Schultz’s path to victory.

As line movements indicate growing confidence in Schultz, bettors may find value on the underdog, while Johnston backers can lock in the sharpest favorite odds at BetUS. Whichever side you choose, understanding these fluctuations and targeting the right book will maximize your edge on fight night.