Winner: Karol Rosa
Confidence Score: 68Karol Rosa has a significant edge in UFC experience, having competed at a higher level and against more ranked opponents for a longer period. Statistically, she lands more significant strikes with higher accuracy (56% vs. 53%) and has a comparable takedown accuracy (48% vs. 47%). While Luana Santos has a strong submission game and excellent takedown defense (86%), Rosa's experience against stronger grapplers and her own 70% takedown defense suggest she can keep the fight standing, where she has a slight edge in volume and accuracy. Historically, fighters with Rosa's profile (Muay Thai base, high-volume striking, and durability) tend to do well against submission-focused judokas who are newer to the division. While Santos is a live underdog with finishing potential, the data and matchup history favor Rosa by decision due to her output, durability, and experience at the top 10 level in the division. The confidence is moderate due to Santos' finishing ability and athletic upside, but Rosa is the more proven and reliable pick in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Kape vs Horiguchi can be found on the Kape vs Horiguchi event page.
