Winner: Vinicius Oliveira
Confidence Score: 65Vinicius Oliveira is in his prime at age 30 and has shown strong recent form, winning 4 of his last 5 fights, including wins over tough competition like Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov. He boasts a high finish rate with 16 KOs and 14 first-round finishes, indicating dangerous power and aggression early. Statistically, Oliveira has a higher significant strike accuracy (44% vs 38%) and better strike defense (57% vs 51%) than Fili, and his takedown defense (70%) is solid enough to keep the fight standing against an opponent like Fili who can mix in wrestling. While Fili is more experienced in the UFC and has a reach advantage, he is 35 and has been inconsistent in recent years. Historically, fighters in their early 30s with Oliveira's power and finishing ability have outperformed aging veterans with similar defensive stats. The main risk is Oliveira's lack of UFC experience compared to Fili, but the data and trends point to Oliveira as the more dynamic and dangerous fighter at this stage.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Andre Fili vs Vinicius Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Kape vs Horiguchi can be found on the Kape vs Horiguchi event page.
