Winner: Vinicius Oliveira
Confidence Score: 67Vinicius Oliveira is the pick due to his superior finishing ability and more efficient striking metrics. He has 16 KO wins and 14 first-round finishes, showing a high level of explosiveness. His significant strike accuracy (44%) and defense (57%) both edge out Fili's (38% accuracy, 51% defense), and his takedown defense (70%) is nearly on par with Fili's (72%), making him tough to control. Oliveira is five years younger, which is a notable advantage in the featherweight division, and he is in his athletic prime. Fili has a reach advantage and more UFC experience, but his recent form shows inconsistency, with KO and submission losses in his last five. Historically, fighters with Oliveira's finishing stats, youth, and striking accuracy have won a majority of similar matchups, especially against older, less defensively sound opponents. While Fili's experience and reach can't be ignored, the data trends and stylistic matchup favor Oliveira to get his hand raised.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Kape vs Horiguchi can be found on the Kape vs Horiguchi event page.
