UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Betting Guide 2026

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Event Details

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh is set to take place on February 28, 2026, at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. This event marks the promotion's eighth visit to Mexico City and the first since UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg in March 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)

Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

Originally, former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno was scheduled to face Asu Almabayev in the main event. However, due to an injury, Almabayev withdrew, and Lone'er Kavanagh has stepped in as a replacement. (ufc.com)

Fighter Backgrounds

• Brandon Moreno: With a professional record of 23 wins, 9 losses, and 2 draws, Moreno is aiming to rebound from a second-round technical knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira in December 2025. (espn.com)

• Lone'er Kavanagh: At 26 years old, Kavanagh holds a record of 9 wins and 1 loss. He earned his UFC contract with a first-round knockout on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2024. Kavanagh's most recent bout was a second-round knockout loss to Charles Johnson in August 2025. (ufc.com)

Betting Odds

As of February 23, 2026, the betting odds for the main event are:

• Brandon Moreno: -250

• Lone'er Kavanagh: +205

These odds reflect Moreno's status as the favorite, despite Kavanagh's impressive knockout record.

Event Significance

This matchup is pivotal for both fighters. Moreno seeks to reestablish himself as a top contender in the flyweight division, while Kavanagh has the opportunity to make a significant impact by defeating a former champion.

Fans can anticipate an exciting and competitive bout as both fighters aim to make their mark in the UFC.

Live odds

All the fighter matchups and live odds for Moreno vs Kavanagh can be found on the Moreno vs Kavanagh event page.

Betting Guide: UFC Fight Night - Moreno vs. Kavanagh

As UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh approaches, the anticipation is building around this prominent card, featuring a mix of established stars and promising fighters. This betting guide will analyze each matchup, the associated odds, line movements, and what insights can help you make wise betting choices.

Main Card Overview

The main card features some thrilling bouts, especially the highly anticipated main event between Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh. The card's depth ensures fans of mixed martial arts are in for a treat, with intriguing matchups that could sway odds and betting strategies alike.

Featured Fight: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh

Brandon Moreno is coming into this fight as the favorite with betting odds sitting around -250 across various bookmakers. Despite his recent loss to Tatsuro Taira, Moreno's overall record of 23-9-2 indicates he is a seasoned competitor. He has ten wins by submission and is known for his grappling skills, making him a formidable opponent in the flyweight division.

In contrast, his opponent Lone'er Kavanagh (currently at +205) boasts a record of 9-1, showing promise with four wins by knockout but coming off a recent KO loss to Charles Johnson. While Kavanagh's striking ability is undeniable, his defensive capabilities will be put to the test against a veteran grappler like Moreno.

Betting Advice: If you are leaning towards Moreno due to consistency, consider placing a bet on him for a safe approach. Kavanagh, however, represents a high-risk, high-reward option due to his potential for an upset.

Fight Card Matchups

1. Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes (Flyweight)

   • Chairez: -300
   • Bunes: +240

   Edgar Chairez enters as a significant favorite against Felipe Bunes. Despite a mixed record, Chairez's performance in previous bouts shows an ability to dominate early rounds, with several first-round finishes. Bunes, with an overall record of 14-8, isn't to be underestimated, especially with his submission skills.

   Betting Insight: The clear odds suggest favoring Chairez, but consider props for Bunes' ability to win via submission, given Chairez's occasionally questionable takedown defense.

2. Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas (Flyweight)

   • Rodriguez: -400
   • Borjas: +310

   Imanol Rodriguez comes in as a robust favorite. Having only one official fight in UFC (a victory) gives him an aura of unpredictability. Kevin Borjas has seen mixed results, and though he has knockout power, he will need to outlast Rodriguez’s early aggression.

   Consideration: Look towards a Rodriguez victory, but shop props that could cover total rounds—Rodriguez excels by early stoppage.

3. Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight)

   • Vera: +210
   • Martinez: -270

   Marlon Vera may come in as the underdog after a recent run of disappointing performances, but he counters with incredible experience. David Martinez, on the other hand, sits higher in the odds due to his tactical skillset and knockout power.

   Recommendation: While it's tempting to bet Martinez, consider betting on Vera by decision—his grit can turn the tide.

Odds Analysis and Line Movement

The betting odds can showcase trends often reflective of personal performance or external factors like injuries. For instance, since opening, Moreno's odds have fluctuated slightly from -230 to -250, symbolizing slightly increased confidence from the betting community regarding his chances. In contrast, Kavanagh's odds have shown stability around +205.

Chairez's odds opened at -270 and have increased to -300, indicating sharp betting action in favor of him, likely due to impressive training camp reports or public confidence.

For Rodriguez vs. Borjas, Rodriguez's line movement from -350 to -400 illustrates that money is moving heavily in his direction as his fight approaches. Conversely, Borjas has etched upwards slightly from +280, hinting at value as an underdog.

Staying Clear: Fights that feature extreme odds, such as Silva's lines (-750), may be deceptive. Betting on heavily-favored fighters often yields low returns, and their match can hinge on a single moment.

Takeaway: Betting on favorites offers reliability but diversifying your bets into props or totals can amplify your potential profit while mitigating risk.

Conclusion

As UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh nears, careful analysis of these match-ups and ongoing line movements will be crucial to your betting strategy. Favor Moreno for reliability but keep an eye on the potential for underdog wins through measured considerations on Bunes, Vera, and others. This card has the potential for surprises, and arming yourself with information will enable you to navigate these waters skillfully.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendations

As we approach UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, fans and bettors alike have a thrilling card ahead. With several intriguing matchups, focusing your bets wisely is essential. Among the standout fighters to consider betting on, Brandon Moreno remains a solid choice given his experience, grappling prowess, and current momentum. Another fighter worth considering is Edgar Chairez, who has shown tremendous potential and comes in as the favorite against Felipe Bunes.

For those interested in maximizing returns, a strategic parlay could include Moreno, Chairez, and Imanol Rodriguez, who is also favored in his matchup. This combination allows you to leverage the odds while adding some security with high-probability fighters against their opponents. Always stay updated on the line movements closer to fight time, as they could affect your betting strategy.

Pro Tip: Make sure to check out the live odds on the event page at UFC Bet Companion: Moreno vs. Kavanagh for the most current betting lines and insights. Stay informed and place your bets wisely to make the most of this exhilarating event!