Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr - Odds Analysis & AI Pick

Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, June 21, 2025, two explosive Light Heavyweights collide on the main card of UFC Fight Night at the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. Scheduled to begin at 19:00 UTC, the bout pits former Contender Series standout Jamahal Hill (#4 in the division) against the hard-hitting veteran Khalil Rountree Jr. (#7). With both men riding peaks and valleys in their careers, this matchup promises fan-friendly action and significant divisional implications.

Event Details

• Date & Time: June 21, 2025 • 19:00 UTC
• Venue: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
• Card Position: Main Card (Light Heavyweight Bout)
• Weight Class: 205 lbs (Light Heavyweight)

Betting Odds at a Glance

• Favorite: Khalil Rountree Jr. (–160 to –155, depending on bookmaker)
• Underdog: Jamahal Hill (+125 to +136, depending on sportsbook)

Rountree enters as the betting favorite across top U.S. books (BetRivers, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetOnline), while Hill carries underdog status despite his four-fight UFC win streak earlier in his career. The narrowing line reflects Hill’s striking acumen and recent experience at the championship limit, but Rountree’s precision and power make him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the top ten.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Divisional Momentum: A win for Hill keeps his resurgence alive after back-to-back knockout losses to elite opponents. A victory here could re-establish him as a dark-horse contender in the crowded Light Heavyweight picture.
2. Title Aspirations: Rountree is one big shot away from snapping back into the title conversation. A decisive performance in Baku could vault him toward a top-five matchup later this year.
3. Stylistic Clash: Both fighters are known for explosive stand-up. Hill boasts a 53% significant strike accuracy and a penchant for head-kick knockouts, while Rountree has racked up 10 KOs in 14 wins, including seven first-round finishes.

Fighters to Watch

• Jamahal Hill: A 33-year-old Chicago native with a 12-3 professional record, four first-round finishes, and a 79-inch reach. Despite recent setbacks, Hill remains a potent striker who can alter the course of a fight with one well-timed kick or punch.
• Khalil Rountree Jr.: Hailing from Los Angeles, the 35-year-old carries a 14-6 record, seven first-round finishes, and a 76.5-inch arm reach. His 38% striking accuracy belies his explosive knockout power and ability to capitalize on openings.

As the sun sets over the Caspian Sea, fans around the globe will tune in to see which dynamic finisher leaves Baku one step closer to championship gold—and which contender’s dream stalls on the world stage. Get ready for a high-octane, highlight-filled showdown in this critical Light Heavyweight clash.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Jamahal Hill Profile

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: United States (Chicago, IL)
• Fighting Style: MMA striker with high-volume combinations and dynamic kicking arsenal
• Physical Attributes: 76-inch reach, 79-inch arm reach, 205.5 lb walking weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Loss vs. Jiri Prochazka – KO/TKO, Round 3 (3:01), Jan. 18, 2025
2. Loss vs. Alex Pereira – KO/TKO, Round 1 (3:14), Apr. 13, 2024
3. Win vs. Glover Teixeira – Decision (Unanimous), 5 Rds, Jan. 21, 2023
4. Win vs. Thiago Santos – KO/TKO, Round 4 (2:31), Aug. 6, 2022
5. Win vs. Johnny Walker – KO/TKO, Round 1 (2:55), Feb. 19, 2022

Hill carried a three-fight win streak through 2022–early 2023, showcasing crisp striking and fight IQ. However, back-to-back knockout losses to Prochazka and Pereira raise questions about his durability against top-tier power punchers.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (53%): Tops the division in landing more than half of his significant strikes, reflecting precision and timing.
• Reach Advantage: With a 79-inch arm reach, Hill can dictate distance, peppering opponents before they close the gap.
• Takedown Defense (73%): Rarely gets taken down, allowing him to remain in his comfort zone on the feet.
• Low Cardio Drain: Average fight time sits at 9:02, indicating solid gas tank and ability to push late rounds if needed.

Weaknesses

• Chin Susceptibility: Two recent KO defeats highlight vulnerability to heavy hitters—especially elite power strikers.
• Strike Defense (45%): Concedes over half of incoming significant strikes, risking damage when pressured.
• Lack of Finishing Early: Only four first-round finishes in 15 UFC fights, suggesting potential sluggish starts against explosive opponents.

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Khalil Rountree Jr. Profile

Background

• Age: 35
• Country: United States (Los Angeles, CA)
• Fighting Style: Power-punch specialist with emphasis on knockouts, utilizes reach to set up knockout blows
• Physical Attributes: 73-inch height, 76.5-inch arm reach, 205 lb walking weight

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

1. Loss vs. Alex Pereira – KO/TKO, Round 4 (4:32), Oct. 5, 2024
2. Win vs. Anthony Smith – KO/TKO, Round 3 (0:56), Dec. 9, 2023
3. Win vs. Chris Daukaus – KO/TKO, Round 1 (2:40), Aug. 12, 2023
4. Win vs. Dustin Jacoby – Decision (Split), 3 Rds, Oct. 29, 2022
5. Win vs. Karl Roberson – KO/TKO, Round 2 (0:25), Mar. 12, 2022

Rountree boasts a four-fight win streak over top-15 opponents, showcasing his marquee knockout power and ability to bounce back after losses.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 10 KOs in 14 wins (71%), with seven first-round finishes—an elite stoppage rate in Light Heavyweight.
• Aggression & Forward Pressure: Constantly walks opponents down, often ending fights early.
• Average Strike Defense (48%): Slightly above Hill’s, giving him an edge when trading.
• Durability in Late Rounds: Average fight time of 8:34 shows he can withstand long exchanges and still deliver power.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (38%): Below divisional average, often missing wide power shots and leaving himself open during follow-ups.
• Takedown Defense (59%): Vulnerable to wrestlers—Hill’s high takedown defense won’t be tested, but against grapplers, Rountree can be controlled.
• Tactical Variability: Relies heavily on power; lacks diverse attack patterns, which can be exploited by technical strikers.
• Age & Wear: At 35, his reflexes and recovery might lag against a younger, more precise striker.

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Matchup Summary:
This clash pits Hill’s pinpoint accuracy and reach against Rountree’s brute power and finishing instincts. Hill must use movement, feints, and top-tier accuracy to avoid Rountree’s bomb-throwing moments, while Rountree will look to cut angles, turn defense into offense, and land one decisive blow. Strategically, this fight will be won in the striking exchanges—Hill’s precision vs. Rountree’s power. Expect a tactical chess match that erupts into a high-octane finish.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest odds across major U.S. sportsbooks, Khalil Rountree Jr. is firmly established as the favorite, while Jamahal Hill carries underdog status. Here’s how the moneylines shake out:

• Khalil Rountree Jr. (Favorite)

  • DraftKings: –155
  • BetRivers: –159
  • FanDuel: –160
  • Caesars: –160
  • BetOnline.ag: –156

• Jamahal Hill (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +136
  • Caesars: +135
  • DraftKings: +130
  • BetRivers: +125
  • FanDuel: +124

The spread between the two fighters sits at roughly 285 to 300 points on the American odds scale, confirming that Rountree is viewed as the more likely winner.

Best Sportsbook for Value

• If you’re backing Rountree, DraftKings (–155) offers the shortest juice and the best return for your wager.
• If you’re betting on Hill, BetOnline.ag (+136) represents the top underdog price on the board.

Line Movement Analysis

An examination of each fighter’s odds progression reveals some notable swings:

• Khalil Rountree Jr. (Caesars movement)

  • Opened at –160, shifted to –170, then –180, peaked at –190, and has since settled back to –185.
  • This aggressive movement suggests early sharp money on Rountree, then minor profit-taking as bettors secured positions.

• Jamahal Hill (Caesars movement)

  • Began at +135, climbed to +140, then +150, spiked at +158, and now sits around +155.
  • That pattern indicates initial heavy underdog money, a push back by sportsbooks, and a slight easing as more balanced action came in.

• DraftKings adjustments

  • Rountree: from –148 → –142 → –155
  • Hill: +124 → +120 → +130
  • These changes reflect back-and-forth money on both sides, but heavier volumes on Rountree as the event date approaches.

Overall, the most dramatic swing occurred at Caesars for both fighters, with Rountree moving 30 points and Hill moving 23 points off their opens. That kind of movement often reflects institutional (sharp) action early, followed by recreational bettors pushing lines back.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you decide to risk $1,000 on either man, here’s what you’d stand to win and the implied likelihood of each outcome:

• Bet $1,000 on Khalil Rountree Jr. at –155

  • Potential profit: $645
  • Total return: $1,645
  • Implied probability: ≈ 61%

• Bet $1,000 on Jamahal Hill at +136

  • Potential profit: $1,360
  • Total return: $2,360
  • Implied probability: ≈ 42%

Despite Rountree’s edge in probability, Hill’s underdog payout is significantly more lucrative—making him an attractive value play if you believe in his precision striking and reach advantage.

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Whether you lean toward Rountree’s one-punch power or Hill’s pinpoint accuracy, understanding these odds and line dynamics is critical to maximizing your ROI on fight night.