Zhelezniakova vs Mullins UFC Betting Odds & Analysis

Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa Mullins Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, June 21, 2025, fight fans will be treated to an action-packed women’s bantamweight clash between Daria Zhelezniakova and Melissa Mullins. This bout is set to kick off on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., hosted at the iconic Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. With the preliminaries scheduled to begin at 16:00 UTC, expect Zhelezniakova vs Mullins to hit the Octagon roughly around 17:30 UTC, as the first wave of high-octane matchups paves the way for the main event.

Fighters to Watch

• Melissa Mullins (England)
  • Record: 7-1-0
  • Average Fight Time: 9:49
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 56%
  • Odds: -275 (favorite)
• Daria Zhelezniakova (Russia)
  • Record: 9-2-0
  • Average Fight Time: 9:26
  • Takedown Accuracy: 100%
  • Odds: +226 (underdog)

Setting the Stage

This women’s bantamweight bout brings together two contrasting styles. Mullins, a powerful striker known for her four knockout victories (three in Round 1), enters as the clear favorite across major sportsbooks (e.g., -260 at Caesars, -300 at BetMGM). At 33 years old, her experience and knockout prowess make her a formidable hurdle for any rising contender. Her lone loss came via KO/TKO to Nora Cornolle in April 2024, a setback she immediately erased with a 2nd-round finish of Klaudia Sygula last November.

Opposite her stands 29-year-old Zhelezniakova, a technically gifted striker with perfect takedown conversion (100%). With five knockouts on her résumé and only two career defeats (one by submission), she boasts a diverse skill set capable of disrupting Mullins’ rhythm. As the underdog at +210 to +240 across various books, Zhelezniakova will look to exploit her reach (69" height, 68" arm reach) and wrestling acumen to neutralize Mullins’ stand-up game.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Ranking Implications – A win for Zhelezniakova could vault her into the top 10 of the women’s bantamweight division, while Mullins aims to solidify her status as a serious title contender.
2. Styles Make Fights – The classic striker vs. striker-wrestler narrative will test Mullins’ defense (50% significant strike defense) against Zhelezniakova’s precision and takedown-heavy approach.
3. Preliminary Spotlight – As one of the earliest televised bouts, an explosive finish or tactical chess match here could set the tone for the rest of the evening.

Conclusion

From Baku Crystal Hall to screens worldwide, the clash between favorite Melissa Mullins and underdog Daria Zhelezniakova promises fireworks and intrigue. Whether you back the seasoned knockout artist or the versatile Russian striker-wrestler hybrid, this is one prelim bout you won’t want to miss. Stay tuned for in-depth round-by-round analysis, betting breakdowns, and live odds updates as fight night draws nearer!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa Mullins can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Melissa Mullins: Profile & Recent Form

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: England
• Fighting Style: MMA striker with heavy hands and sudden explosive power

Melissa Mullins burst onto the UFC scene in October 2023 and quickly established herself as a knockout artist. Standing at 5’7” with a 68” reach, she combines crisp striking with solid takedown defense to keep fights on her terms.

Recent Form

1. Nov. 9, 2024 – Win vs. Klaudia Sygula (KO/TKO, Round 2, 1:20)
2. Apr. 6, 2024 – Loss vs. Nora Cornolle (KO/TKO, Round 2, 3:06)
3. Oct. 14, 2023 – Win vs. Irina Alekseeva (Unanimous Decision, 5:00)

In three UFC outings, Mullins holds a 2-1 record. Her lone setback—a second-round knockout by Cornolle—served as a wake-up call, but she responded emphatically with a second-round finish over Sygula.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Knockout Power: 4 of her 7 career wins come via KO/TKO, including three stoppages in Round 1.
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (56%): She lands more than half of her power shots.
  • Takedown Defense (86%): Rarely gets taken down, forcing foes to stand and trade.

• Weaknesses:
  • Strike Defense (50%): Susceptible to significant strikes—half of opponent’s power shots land.
  • Takedown Offense (38%): When pressed, her own takedowns land under 40% of the time.
  • Consistency: Tends to start fast but can slow in later rounds, as shown in her decision win.

---

Daria Zhelezniakova: Profile & Recent Form

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: Striker with elite wrestling credentials

A former undefeated prospect in regional circuits, Zhelezniakova made her UFC debut in March 2024. At 5’9” with a 68” reach, she blends precise striking with relentless takedown pressure.

Recent Form

1. Sept. 28, 2024 – Loss vs. Ailin Perez (Submission, Round 1, 3:52)
2. Mar. 23, 2024 – Win vs. Montserrat Rendon (Unanimous Decision, 5:00)

With a 1-1 UFC record so far, Zhelezniakova has shown her two strongest attributes—a high-output striking game and perfect takedown success—yet remains vulnerable on the mat.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Takedown Accuracy (100%): Converts every attempted takedown, a rare feat at bantamweight.
  • Strike Defense (80%): Evades 80% of significant strikes, making her a slippery target.
  • Knockout Upside: 5 of 9 career wins by KO/TKO showcase heavy hands.

• Weaknesses:
  • Significant Strike Accuracy (38%): Less efficient in landing her own power strikes.
  • Takedown Defense (50%): Only half of opponents’ takedown attempts are denied, opening her up to wrestlers.
  • Submission Vulnerability: Lacks submission finishes and suffered a first-round armbar loss.

---

Matchup Implications
This clash pits Mullins’ raw power and takedown defense against Zhelezniakova’s strike defense and flawless grappling. Expect a battle for distance where Mullins looks to land big shots, while Zhelezniakova will hunt takedowns to neutralize the Englishwoman’s knockout threat. The winner emerges with a significant boost in the women’s bantamweight rankings—and a statement performance on the Baku prelims.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of June 17, major sportsbooks show Melissa Mullins as the clear favorite and Daria Zhelezniakova as the underdog in this women’s bantamweight clash:

• Melissa Mullins (Favorite)
  • Caesars: -260
  • BetRivers: -275
  • DraftKings: -278
  • BetMGM: -300
  • BetOnline.ag: -275
  • BetUS: -275
  • FanDuel: -310

• Daria Zhelezniakova (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +210
  • BetRivers: +205
  • DraftKings: +225
  • BetMGM: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +235
  • BetUS: +226
  • FanDuel: +230

Betting Gap: On average, Mullins sits around -280 while Zhelezniakova is near +230, reflecting a nearly 1:3 payout ratio in favor of the favorite.

Line Movement Over Time

A look at the line history reveals steady drift toward Mullins—and larger payouts for bettors backing her—suggesting heavy action on the English striker:

• Caesars: from -250 → -260
• BetRivers: from -250 → -275
• DraftKings: from -258 → -278
• BetMGM: from -250 → -300
• FanDuel: from -265 → -310

Meanwhile, Zhelezniakova’s odds have lengthened from roughly +200 to the +225–+240 range across all shops. The biggest swings occurred at BetMGM (+200 → +240) and BetOnline.ag (+210 → +255), highlighting one of the sharpest lines in the underdog market.

Payout & Implied Probability

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what you’d pocket if they win—plus the implied chance of victory based on the current numbers:

• Bet $1,000 on Mullins at -260
  You’d collect ≈ $1,385 total return (your $1,000 stake + $385 profit).
  Implied Win Probability: ~72%

• Bet $1,000 on Zhelezniakova at +240
  You’d collect ≈ $3,400 total return (your $1,000 stake + $2,400 profit).
  Implied Win Probability: ~30%

Best Sportsbook for Your Bet

• Backing the Favorite?
  Caesars currently offers the best value on Mullins at -260, giving you the highest profit on a winning wager.

• Backing the Underdog?
  BetMGM’s +240 on Zhelezniakova is the most generous line, maximizing potential upside if the Russian pulls off the upset.

---

Whether you believe Mullins will steamroll her way to victory or have faith in Zhelezniakova’s wrestling-heavy style to turn the tables, understanding these odds trends and line movements is crucial—especially if you’re eyeing a four-figure payday on fight night.