Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman: Odds, Analysis & Pick

Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman Fight Analysis

The Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman matchup is set to kick off the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., taking place on June 21, 2025, at the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. The scheduled bell time for this heavyweight clash is 4:00 PM local time, marking the start of an action-packed evening in MMA’s deepest division.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.
• Date & Time: Saturday, June 21, 2025, 4:00 PM (local Baku time)
• Venue: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
• Card Position: Preliminary Card, Heavyweight Division
• Broadcast: Live on ESPN+ (U.S.) and UFC Fight Pass (International)

The Favorite: Hamdy Abdelwahab (-205)

Egyptian wrestler Hamdy Abdelwahab enters the Octagon as the betting favorite with odds of -205 at both Caesars and BetRivers (and -204 at BetOnline.ag). The 32-year-old made his UFC debut on July 30, 2022, and has since compiled a flawless 6-0 record, showcasing an undefeated résumé built on relentless takedowns and punishing ground-and-pound. Abdelwahab’s stats tell the story of a grappling force:

• Record: 6-0-0
• Wins by Knockout: 5
• First-Round Finishes: 4
• Takedown Accuracy: 80%
• Takedown Defense: 100%

His wrestling pedigree and near-perfect takedown defense make him a daunting challenge for any heavyweight, especially against opponents who lack the same level of elite grappling experience. Abdelwahab’s average fight time sits at 15:00, indicating a patient, methodical pace that wears opponents down over three rounds.

The Underdog: Mohammed Usman (+170)

Standing across the cage is Nigerian striker Mohammed Usman, an 11-win veteran hoping to derail Abdelwahab’s perfect run. Usman is listed at +170 (Caesars), with similar lines at BetRivers (+160) and BetOnline.ag (+174). At 35 years old, “The Nigerian Nightmare” carries an 11-4-0 record into this bout, demonstrating durability and finishing ability:

• Record: 11-4-0
• Wins by Knockout: 4
• Wins by Submission: 2
• First-Round Finishes: 5
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 37%
• Takedown Defense: 60%

Usman’s recent outings have been a mixed bag, as he looks to rebound from back-to-back unanimous decision losses. His heart and experience in high-pressure environments cannot be understated, but he must find a way to neutralize Abdelwahab’s takedowns and impose his own striking game if he hopes to pull off the upset.

Why This Matters

This bout not only highlights contrasting styles—Abdelwahab’s high-octane wrestling versus Usman’s veteran striking—but also carries significant implications in the heavyweight landscape. A win for Abdelwahab solidifies his status as a top contender in the division, while a victory for Usman would snap Abdelwahab’s undefeated streak and propel Mohammed back into the win column, potentially setting up higher-profile matchups down the line.

With the odds heavily favoring Abdelwahab, bettors and fans alike will be tuning in to see if the Egyptian wrestler can enforce his will or if Usman’s experience and finishing instincts can engineer a memorable upset in Baku.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

In this heavyweight showdown, we have a classic wrestler-versus-striker dynamic as Hamdy Abdelwahab squares off with Mohammed Usman on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. on June 21, 2025, at Baku Crystal Hall. Let’s dive into each fighter’s background, recent form, and statistical profile to see how their strengths and weaknesses match up.

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Hamdy Abdelwahab Profile

Age: 32
Country: Egypt
Fighting Style: Wrestler
UFC Record: 6-0-0 (per official stats)
Pro Record (incl. last 2 UFC fights): 6-1-0

Recent Form (Last 2 UFC Bouts):

• Loss vs Jamal Pogues (Feb. 1, 2025) – First professional setback, decision result untelevised
• Win vs Dontale Mayes (Jul. 30, 2022) – Split decision

Background & Fighting Style

Abdelwahab burst onto the UFC scene with a decorated amateur wrestling background. At 6'2" with a 72" reach, he relies on relentless takedowns and suffocating top-control to grind opponents out. His 80% takedown accuracy and perfect 100% takedown defense (UFC career) make him one of the division’s most dangerous grapplers. His five knockout wins—including four in Round 1—highlight his ability to blend power with positional dominance.

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Mohammed Usman Profile

Age: 35
Country: Nigeria
Fighting Style: Striker / Well-Rounded MMA
UFC Record: 6-4-0
Pro Record (Last 5 UFC Bouts): 11-4-0

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Bouts):

• Loss vs Thomas Petersen (Jul. 20, 2024) – Unanimous decision
• Loss vs Mick Parkin (Mar. 23, 2024) – Unanimous decision
• Win vs Jake Collier (Sep. 23, 2023) – Unanimous decision
• Win vs Junior Tafa (Apr. 22, 2023) – Unanimous decision
• Win vs Zac Pauga (Aug. 6, 2022) – TKO (Round 2, 0:36)

Background & Fighting Style

A latecomer to elite MMA, Usman brings a striking-first approach with solid submission chops. Standing 6'2" with a 79" reach, he leverages long-range combinations and power punches, compiling four knockouts and two submission wins. His 37% significant strike accuracy and 50% defense reflect a volume-based striking game that capitalizes on counters and pressure.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Hamdy Abdelwahab

Strengths

• Elite Wrestling: 80% TD accuracy; 100% TD defense
• Power Finishing: 5 KOs in 6 fights; thrives in ground-and-pound
• Striking Efficiency: 52% significant strike accuracy (tops in HW)
• Durability: Never been finished

Weaknesses

• Cardio Questions: Average fight time of 15:00 hints at potential gas in high-pace clashes
• Limited Stand‐up Volume: Primarily a grappler—may lack high-volume striking if TDs are denied
• Experience Gap: Only two UFC bouts—susceptible to veterans who can adapt mid-fight

Mohammed Usman

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 5 first-round finishes; dangerous early fight
• Well‐Rounded: 4 KO, 2 Sub wins; can adapt to opponent’s weakness
• Takedown Defense: 60%—able to keep fights standing

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy: 37%—inefficient output against slippery wrestlers
• Grappling Deficit: 18% TD accuracy—struggles to initiate his own wrestling
• Cardio & Consistency: Back-to-back UD losses suggest issues pushing pace for 15 minutes

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When Abdelwahab locks up for the takedown, Usman’s 18% TD success may not suffice to slow the Egyptian’s ground assault. Conversely, if Usman can keep the fight upright and land his long-range shots—despite a modest 37% accuracy—he could expose Abdelwahab’s striking inexperience. This matchup is a true stylistic puzzle: Abdelwahab’s suffocating wrestling versus Usman’s power and veteran savvy. Expect a chess match that will reveal which skill set reigns supreme in the heavyweight ranks.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Ahead of Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., the sportsbooks have firmly installed Abdelwahab as the favorite, but there’s value to be had if you like the underdog’s chances. Below is a detailed look at the current lines, their movement, and what a $1,000 wager would net you on either fighter.

Current Odds Snapshot

• Hamdy Abdelwahab (Favorite)
  • Caesars: –205
  • BetRivers: –205
  • BetOnline.ag: –204
• Mohammed Usman (Underdog)
  • Caesars: +170
  • BetRivers: +160
  • BetOnline.ag: +174

Key Takeaway:

• Abdelwahab is the clear favorite, priced around –205 at most books.
• Usman is the underdog, with the most generous line at +174 on BetOnline.ag.
• Best Sportsbook
  • For backing the favorite: BetOnline.ag at –204 (slightly better juice).
  • For backing the underdog: BetOnline.ag at +174 (highest payout potential).

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Line Movement & Historical Trends

Hamdy Abdelwahab Odds History (BetOnline.ag)

• May 22: –180
• May 28: –175
• June 4: –205
• June 7: –206

Mohammed Usman Odds History (BetOnline.ag)

• May 22: +155
• May 28: +150
• June 4: +175
• June 7: +176

Notable Swings:

• Between May 28 and June 4, Abdelwahab’s line shifted from –175 to –205, while Usman moved from +150 to +175.
• This 30-cent move on Abdelwahab (and corresponding 25-cent rise on Usman) suggests heavy betting on the Egyptian wrestler or potential sharp action identifying a mismatch.
• Minor tweaks at Caesars and BetRivers mirror this trend, with Abdelwahab holding steady at –205 and Usman settling around +160 to +170.

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Payout & Implied Probability

If you’re looking to bet $1,000 on fight night, here’s what you’d be looking at:

• Bet $1,000 on Abdelwahab at –204 (BetOnline.ag)

  • Payout: ~$1,490.20 (your $1,000 stake plus ~$490.20 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~67%

• Bet $1,000 on Usman at +174 (BetOnline.ag)

  • Payout: ~$2,740.00 (your $1,000 stake plus ~$1,740.00 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~36%

Why It Matters:

• Value on the Underdog: If you believe Usman can keep the fight standing and land his power shots, that +174 line is the most lucrative of the major sportsbooks.
• Sharp Money on Abdelwahab: The sharp swing toward Abdelwahab indicates confidence from professional bettors in his wrestling dominance.
• Shop for Lines: Small differences (–204 vs. –205, +174 vs. +170) can swing hundreds of dollars on a four-figure bet, so always compare books before pulling the trigger.

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By monitoring these odds and line movements, you can make an informed decision on where to put your money, whether you’re backing the undefeated grappling force of Abdelwahab or betting on the veteran power of Usman to pull off the surprise.