Ismail Naurdiev vs JunYong Park UFC Odds, Picks & Analysis

Ismail Naurdiev vs JunYong Park Fight Analysis

Introduction

On June 21, 2025, fight fans will tune in for a thrilling Middleweight showdown between Morocco’s rising grappler Ismail Naurdiev and South Korea’s seasoned striker Junyong Park. This bout is slated to air on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., kicking off at 16:00 UTC (20:00 local time in Baku) from the iconic Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. While the headliners promise fireworks, this five-round, 185-pound clash brings its own high-stakes intrigue, pitting a powerful wrestler against a precision boxer in a classic styles matchup.

Fight Context

This contest marks another chapter in both fighters’ UFC journeys:

• Junyong Park (18-6-0) enters with a split-decision win over Brad Tavares at UFC 294 and boasts five career first-round finishes, blending sharp boxing with a respectable submission arsenal.
• Ismail Naurdiev (24-7-0) returns off a unanimous decision over Bruno Silva in October 2024, carrying a career-high 15 first-round finishes and a reputation for relentless wrestling pressure.

With both athletes seeking to climb the middleweight rankings, the stakes could not be higher. A victory here could propel the winner into the conversation for a top-15 berth in a division that features elite talents such as Dricus du Plessis, Kevin Holland, and Marvin Vettori.

Betting Odds: Favorite and Underdog

The current odds firmly establish Junyong Park as the favorite across major sportsbooks:

• FanDuel: Park –235
• BetMGM: Park –225
• DraftKings: Park –225

In contrast, Ismail Naurdiev is viewed as the underdog, offering significant value to bettors willing to back his wrestling pedigree:

• FanDuel: Naurdiev +180
• BetMGM: Naurdiev +185
• DraftKings: Naurdiev +185

These lines reflect Park’s superior striking accuracy (52% significant strike accuracy) and notable takedown defense (58%), whereas Naurdiev’s strengths lie in his wrestling (73% takedown defense, 40% takedown accuracy) and finishing instincts (12 knockouts).

Why This Fight Matters

• Styles Clash: Will Park’s boxing superiority neutralize Naurdiev’s wrestling? Or can Naurdiev impose his grappling and grind down the Korean striker?
• Momentum Shift: Park’s recent split-decision loss to André Muniz showcased vulnerabilities on the ground, while Naurdiev’s fan-friendly, finish-first approach continues to earn highlight-reel finishes.
• Division Dynamics: A win for Naurdiev could disrupt the established middleweight hierarchy, while Park solidifying his spot would signal his readiness for increasingly higher-profile matchups.

As the preliminary card approaches, this battle of contrasting game plans promises to deliver high drama and potentially a turning point in both fighters’ careers. Bettors and MMA strategists alike will be watching closely to see which athlete can execute their game plan under the bright lights of the Baku Crystal Hall.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ismail Naurdiev vs JunYong Park can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Fighter Profiles & Matchup Analysis

Junyong Park Profile

Age: 34
Country: South Korea
Fighting Style: Boxing (with a growing submission arsenal)
UFC Record: 18-6-0

Recent Form

• Oct. 12, 2024 – Win vs. Brad Tavares (Split Decision)
• Dec. 9, 2023 – Loss vs. Andre Muniz (Split Decision)
• Jul. 15, 2023 – Win vs. Albert Duraev (Submission, R2 – 4:45)
• Feb. 5, 2023 – Win vs. Denis Tiuliulin (Submission, R1 – 4:05)
• Oct. 29, 2022 – Win vs. Joseph Holmes (Submission, R2 – 3:04)

Park has rattled off four finishes in his last five outings, showcasing a hybrid skill set that blends crisp boxing with opportunistic grappling. His split-decision loss to Muniz exposed some ground-game vulnerabilities, but he rebounded against veteran Tavares to reassert his striking pedigree.

Strengths

• Significant Strike Accuracy (52%) – Park lands over half his power shots, making him one of the more precise strikers at 185 lb.
• Finishing Versatility – Five first-round stops: three by submission, two by knockout. He can end fights standing or on the mat.
• Takedown Offense (47%) – Nearly half of his takedown attempts succeed, a testament to his improving wrestling.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (58%) – Park has been taken down in nearly half of the attempts against him. A strong grappler could exploit this.
• Average Fight Time (11:48) – His tendency to go deep suggests potential cardio issues if pressured early by a relentless wrestler.
• Ground Defense vs. Elite Grapplers – The split loss to submission ace Andre Muniz highlighted ongoing defensive lapses on the mat.

---

Ismail Naurdiev Profile

Age: 28
Country: Morocco
Fighting Style: Wrestling (ground-and-pound aggressor)
UFC Record: 24-7-0

Recent Form

• Oct. 26, 2024 – Win vs. Bruno Silva (Unanimous Decision)
• Feb. 29, 2020 – Loss vs. Sean Brady (Decision)
• Sep. 28, 2019 – Win vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (Unanimous Decision)
• Jul. 6, 2019 – Loss vs. Chance Rencountre (Unanimous Decision)
• Feb. 23, 2019 – Win vs. Michel Prazeres (Decision)

Naurdiev returns after a nearly five-year hiatus, fresh off a dominant decision over Bruno Silva. His sample size of recent activity is small, but it underscores a durable athlete capable of maintaining pace over fifteen minutes.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (73%) – Among the best in the division, Naurdiev stuffs nearly three-quarters of all takedown attempts.
• Significant Strike Defense (67%) – He avoids two-thirds of incoming power shots, enabling him to engage on the feet with confidence.
• First-Round Finishes (15) – More early stoppages than anyone in UFC middleweight history, showcasing explosive power and submission savvy.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (40%) – A below-average rate for a wrestler, suggesting he may struggle to impose his game on elite strikers.
• Sig Strike Accuracy (54%) – While strong, his stand-up isn’t overwhelmingly superior to Park’s, making a striking match less lopsided than it appears.
• Ring Rust? – Five years between fights may leave him behind the cardio and timing curve, especially against a high-volume boxer.

---

Styles Clash & Key Matchup Factors

• Wrestling vs. Boxing: Naurdiev must bridge the distance, land takedowns, and control Park on the mat. Park needs to keep the fight upright, use his jab and lateral movement, and punish Naurdiev’s entries.
• Pace & Cardio: Park’s history of deep waters (avg. 11:48) aligns with Naurdiev’s grind-heavy approach (avg. 15:00). Whoever dictates the tempo could sap the other’s gas tank.
• Finishing Edge: Both fighters excel at early stoppages—Park via slick submissions, Naurdiev with ferocious ground-and-pound. A scramble or transition could end this fight swiftly.

This clash of contrasting strengths—boxing precision vs. wrestling might—hinges on which athlete can force the other into his realm. Park’s takedown offense faces its sternest test, while Naurdiev’s stand-up defense will be taxed by one of the division’s sharpest strikers. Expect a chess match of feints, level changes, and explosive finishes as both men vie for middleweight momentum.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

The latest moneylines for Ismail Naurdiev vs. Junyong Park show a clear favorite and underdog split:

• Jun Yong Park (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: –235
  • BetMGM: –225
  • DraftKings: –225
  • BetUS / BetOnline.ag: –220

• Ismail Naurdiev (Underdog)

  • BetMGM: +185
  • DraftKings: +185
  • BetUS: +182
  • FanDuel: +180
  • BetOnline.ag: +185

Park’s odds in the –220 to –235 range reflect his status as the betting favorite, while Naurdiev’s +180 to +185 lines reward backers with a significant return if the Moroccan grappler pulls off an upset.

Line Movement & Historical Trends

Tracking the odds over the past few weeks reveals modest but telling shifts:

• Jun Yong Park

  • June 4: –215 at BetOnline.ag
  • June 11: Drifted to –220 / –225 at major books
  • Current peak: –235 at FanDuel

• Ismail Naurdiev

  • June 6: +180 at BetRivers
  • June 11: Brief swing to +175 (BetRivers), then back up to +185 at BetMGM & DraftKings

These movements indicate steady money on Park—pushing his line from –215 into the –230s at sharp books—while Naurdiev’s odds have bounced between +175 and +185. No extreme swings suggest neither camp has unearthed a game-changing piece of intel, but sportsbooks are slowly adjusting to bettor confidence in Park’s proven striking and takedown defense.

Implied Probabilities & Potential Payouts

Based on current moneylines (no deep math explanation needed), the implied win chances roughly are:

• Jun Yong Park: ~69%
• Ismail Naurdiev: ~35%

If you wager $1,000 on either fighter today, your gross payout (stake + winnings) would be:

• Park at –225: Receive $1,444.44 back ($444.44 profit)
• Naurdiev at +185: Receive $2,850 back ($1,850 profit)

These potential payouts underscore the value in backing Naurdiev as the underdog, but likewise demonstrate why Park commands the shorter price.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

When hunting for the sharpest lines:

• Favorite (Park):

  • BetOnline.ag and BetUS at –220 offer slightly better value than the –225 to –235 options.

• Underdog (Naurdiev):

  • BetMGM and DraftKings lead with +185, maximizing your payout if Naurdiev pulls off the upset.

By targeting the softest favorite lines and the juiciest underdog offers, bettors can squeeze extra edge out of this intriguing middleweight tilt. Whether you side with Park’s boxing precision or Naurdiev’s wrestling power, knowing where to place your $1,000 wager can mean the difference between a modest return and a lucrative payday.