Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev: UFC Odds & Fight Analysis

# Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev Fight Analysis

## Event Details
Get ready for a heavyweight clash on **Saturday, June 21, 2025**, when **Curtis Blaydes** takes on **Rizvan Kuniev** as part of the Main Card at **UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.** The action kicks off at **7:00 PM UTC** at the **Baku Crystal Hall** in **Baku, Azerbaijan**, with this bout slated for approximately **8:30 PM UTC**. Fight fans in the United States can tune in during the afternoon, while European and Asian viewers will catch the evening action live from Azerbaijan’s iconic venue.

## Setting the Stage
This non-title **Heavyweight** showdown pits two contrasting styles against each other:

- **Curtis Blaydes** (#5 ranked in the division) enters as the clear favorite, with FanDuel listing him at **-295** and other major books ranging from **-265 to -295**. The 34-year-old “Razor” brings an 18-5-0 record, elite wrestling, and 13 career knockouts into the Octagon.
- **Rizvan Kuniev**, on the rise at 32 years old, is the underdog at **+215 to +225** across bookmakers like FanDuel and Caesars. The newcomer boasts a polished 12-2-1 record, flawless takedown defense (100%), and a striking accuracy north of 70% in his UFC debut earlier this year.

## Heavyweight Powerhouses Collide
Blaydes has long been a fixture near the top of the heavyweight rankings, using his relentless double-leg attacks and ground-and-pound to dismantle opponents. His most recent setback came in July 2024 against Tom Aspinall, a one-punch knockout loss that reminded fans of the division’s volatility. Yet Curtis bounced back emphatically with a second-round stoppage of Jailton Almeida in March, showcasing his ability to adapt and evolve.

On the other side, Kuniev burst onto the UFC scene in February 2025, earning praise for his exceptionally well-rounded skill set. Hailing from Makhachkala, Russia, he combines high-level striking (72% significant strike accuracy) with perfect takedown defense, making him a tricky puzzle for any heavyweight contender. Despite being unranked, Kuniev’s rapid development and calm under fire have turned heads, positioning him as a dangerous spoiler.

## Favorite vs. Underdog
- **The Favorite (Curtis Blaydes)**  
  • Odds: –295 (FanDuel) | –275 (Caesars)  
  • Strengths: Elite wrestling (53% takedown accuracy), heavy hands (13 KOs), championship experience  
  • Recent Form: 1–1 in his last two outings, rebounded from a KO loss to secure a highlight-reel knockout  
- **The Underdog (Rizvan Kuniev)**  
  • Odds: +220 (FanDuel) | +225 (BetOnline.ag)  
  • Strengths: Striking precision (72%), perfect takedown defense (100%), resilience and cardio  
  • UFC Debut: Feb. 22, 2025, impressive showing sets the tone for a breakout performance

As the favorite, Blaydes must impose his wrestling early to stifle Kuniev’s striking, while the underdog will look to keep the fight upright, land crisp combinations, and capitalize on any defensive lapses. The contrasting styles and high stakes make this one of the most intriguing heavyweight matchups on the 2025 calendar—don’t miss it!  

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

## Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

### Curtis Blaydes

**Background**  
- Age: **34**  
- Country: **United States**  
- Hometown: Naperville, Illinois  
- Fighting Style: **Wrestling-based MMA** with heavy ground-and-pound  
- UFC Debut: April 10, 2016  
- Record: **18–5–0**

**Recent Form**  
Blaydes has alternated highs and lows against top contenders. In his last five outings he is 3–2:  
1. **Loss** vs. Tom Aspinall (KO/TKO, R1 – 1:00) – UFC London, July 2024  
2. **Win** vs. Jailton Almeida (KO/TKO, R2 – 0:36) – UFC Charlotte, March 2024  
3. **Loss** vs. Sergei Pavlovich (KO/TKO, R1 – 3:08) – UFC Vegas, April 2023  
4. **Win** vs. Tom Aspinall (KO/TKO, R1 – 0:15) – UFC London, July 2022  
5. **Win** vs. Chris Daukaus (KO/TKO, R2 – 0:17) – UFC Columbus, March 2022  

**Strengths**  
- **Takedowns & Control**: 53% takedown accuracy, relentless double-leg entries and top-control  
- **Finishing Power**: 13 career knockouts, 3 first-round stoppages  
- **Durability**: Strong gas tank, average fight time 8:36 shows ability to grind opponents  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Striking Accuracy**: Only 50% significant strike accuracy, can miss heavy shots  
- **Takedown Defense**: Opponents land on him 68% of attempts, vulnerable if he’s out-wrestled  
- **KO Susceptibility**: Two of his five losses are first-round knockouts, can be caught early  

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### Rizvan Kuniev

**Background**  
- Age: **32**  
- Country: **Russia**  
- Hometown: Makhachkala  
- Fighting Style: **Well-rounded striker/wrestler hybrid**  
- UFC Debut: February 22, 2025  
- Record: **12–2–1**

**Recent Form**  
While detailed fight-by-fight data is limited, Kuniev has surged through regional circuits and the UFC with momentum:  
- **UFC Debut**: Unanimous decision win, showcased takedown defense and precise striking  
- **First-Round Finishes**: 4 career first-round stoppages in his last 6 pro fights  
- **Overall Run**: 4 wins in his last 5, including two first-round KOs and one submission  

**Strengths**  
- **Striking Efficiency**: 72% significant strike accuracy, lands heavy shots with minimal waste  
- **Takedown Defense**: Perfect 100% takedown defense in UFC outings, neutralizes wrestling threats  
- **Versatility**: 75% takedown accuracy of his own, can mix takedowns and stand-up seamlessly  
- **Cardio & Pace**: Maintains high output, average fight time 8:00 suggests comfort in deep waters  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Reach Disadvantage**: 76" arm reach vs. Blaydes’s 80", may struggle to hit from outside  
- **Experience Gap**: Only one UFC fight; step up to a top-5 ranked opponent is a significant leap  
- **Striking Defense**: 56% significant strike defense means over 40% of strikes land—potential vulnerability  

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Both fighters bring distinct tools: Blaydes’s grinding wrestling and heavy hands versus Kuniev’s pinpoint striking and iron-clad takedown defense. Blaydes must close distance and impose his will, while Kuniev will look to keep the fight at range, pick his shots, and capitalize on openings. This clash of styles underpins a fascinating heavyweight showdown in Baku.  

## Odds Breakdown & Betting Trends

### Current Betting Odds  
As of June 9, 2025, the consensus strongly favors **Curtis Blaydes**, who sits at roughly **–295** (FanDuel/BetRivers) to **–265** (BetOnline.ag) across major books. His wrestling prowess and heavyweight résumé have made him a clear favorite. On the other side, **Rizvan Kuniev** is the underdog at around **+220** (FanDuel) to **+225** (Caesars, BetOnline.ag), reflecting both his newcomer status and the respect for his striking and takedown defense.

- Favorite (Blaydes):  
  • –295 at FanDuel, –295 at BetRivers, –275 at Caesars, –265 at BetOnline.ag  
- Underdog (Kuniev):  
  • +220 at FanDuel, +215 at BetRivers, +225 at Caesars, +225 at BetOnline.ag  

**Best Value**  
- For backing the favorite, **BetOnline.ag** yields the softest line (–265), maximizing your payout if “Razor” wins.  
- For the upset special, both **Caesars** and **BetOnline.ag** offer +225 on Kuniev, giving you the largest profit in case the Russian newcomer pulls off a shocker.

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### Line Movement Analysis  
Early action on both fighters caused notable swings through late May into early June:

Curtis Blaydes (BetOnline.ag):  
- May 23: Opened at –300 → quickly sharpened to –265 → then drifted out to –235 by May 28 → re-sharpened to –260 in early June → holds steady around –260 heading into fight week.

Rizvan Kuniev (BetOnline.ag):  
- May 23: Opened at +250 → quickly eased in to +225 → slid to +200 by May 28 as bettors backed the dog → rebounded to +220/+219 in early June.

These fluctuations suggest that early excitement around Kuniev saw the book adjust toward a more competitive line before heavier action on Blaydes pushed the favorite back into deeper chalk territory. The sharpest move came when Blaydes softened from –300 to –235, only to recover as late money poured in.

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### Payouts & Implied Probabilities  
If you wager **$1,000** based on the **best available lines**:

- **Betting on Blaydes at –265 (BetOnline.ag)**  
  • Potential profit: **$377**  
  • Total return: **$1,377**  
  • Implied probability: **~73%**

- **Betting on Kuniev at +225 (Caesars/BetOnline.ag)**  
  • Potential profit: **$2,250**  
  • Total return: **$3,250**  
  • Implied probability: **~31%**

While Blaydes is the safer play based on implied odds and his proven track record, Kuniev’s line has firmed up after initial support—and at +225 there’s still significant bang for your buck if you believe his striking acumen and takedown defense will derail the favorite’s game plan.