UFC Baku: Mullins vs Zhelezniakova Odds & Analysis

Melissa Mullins vs Daria Zhelezniakova Fight Breakdown

Introduction

The highly anticipated Women’s Bantamweight clash between Melissa Mullins and Daria Zhelezniakova takes center stage on Saturday, June 21, 2025, as part of the preliminary card for UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. The action kicks off at 4:00 PM UTC inside the illustrious Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, where fight fans from around the globe will tune in to witness two dynamic fighters collide at 135 pounds.

On paper, the betting markets have made their stance crystal clear: Melissa Mullins, the #15-ranked Women’s Bantamweight from England, enters as the favorite with odds hovering around -250. A powerful striker with a professional record of 7–1–0, Mullins has demonstrated finishing prowess—boasting 4 knockouts and an impressive 3 first-round stoppages—and carries into this bout a blend of precision striking (56% significant strike accuracy) and robust takedown defense (86%). She’ll be looking to extend her winning streak after her October 2023 UFC debut victory over Irina Alekseeva and a memorable second-round KO of Klaudia Syguła in November 2024.

Meanwhile, standing across the Octagon is Russia’s rising star Daria Zhelezniakova, the underdog at +195 to +211, who owns a 9–2–0 ledger and is no stranger to front-foot pressure. At 29 years old, Zhelezniakova blends striking aggression (100% takedown accuracy in her limited grappling forays) with a sturdy takedown defense (50%). After a unanimous decision win over Montserrat Rendon in March 2024, she faced a setback via first-round submission to Ailin Perez in September but has since been training to tighten her defensive grappling and sharpen her counter-striking.

What’s at Stake

• For Melissa Mullins: A win cements her status among the division’s elite, pushing her closer to top-10 contention and potentially earning a spot on the main card in future events.
• For Daria Zhelezniakova: An upset victory would catapult her up the rankings, showcase her evolution as a well-rounded threat, and prove that she can overcome seasoned foes on the international stage.

Key Takeaways

• Venue & Timing: Baku Crystal Hall, June 21 at 4:00 PM UTC (Preliminary Card)
• Favorite: Melissa Mullins (–250) – Strong striking, elite takedown defense, #15 ranked
• Underdog: Daria Zhelezniakova (+195) – High-pressure striker, perfect takedown accuracy in UFC, looking to rebound

This bout promises fireworks as Mullins’ polished stand-up meets Zhelezniakova’s unrelenting aggression. Will the seasoned English contender dictate distance and pace, or can the Russian underdog land that decisive strike to spring a major upset? Stay tuned for an electric showdown under the lights of Baku.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Melissa Mullins vs Daria Zhelezniakova can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Melissa Mullins

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: England (Oxford)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with a focus on power and precision

Melissa “The Oxford Assassin” Mullins has rapidly climbed the Women’s Bantamweight ranks since her UFC debut in October 2023. Standing 67 inches tall with a 68-inch reach, she blends crisp boxing combinations with explosive finishes, leveraging her superior reach to keep opponents at bay.

Recent Form

Over her last three UFC appearances, Mullins has shown both her strengths and areas for improvement:

1. Win – KO/TKO vs. Klaudia Syguła (Nov. 9, 2024) – 2nd round, 1:20
2. Loss – KO/TKO vs. Nora Cornolle (Apr. 6, 2024) – 2nd round, 3:06
3. Win – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Irina Alekseeva (Oct. 14, 2023) – 3 rounds

These results illustrate her ability to both go the distance and finish fights early, though the loss to Cornolle exposed vulnerabilities in her defensive striking under pressure.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Significant Strike Accuracy (56%) – Among the highest in the division, enabling her to pick apart opponents with precision.
• Takedown Defense (86%) – Elite level, neutralizing ground threats and allowing her to keep the fight standing.
• Finishing Instinct – 4 KOs and 3 first-round stoppages in 7 wins highlight her power and fight-ending instincts.

Weaknesses:

• Significant Strike Defense (50%) – Lower than average, indicating she can be hit when pressed against the cage or during exchanges.
• Takedown Offense (38%) – Below division average, suggesting limited wrestling versatility if her striking is neutralized.
• Durability Questions – The TKO loss to Cornolle raises concerns about her chin when facing powerful punchers.

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Daria Zhelezniakova

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Russia (Saint Petersburg)
• Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with developing grappling credentials

Zhelezniakova burst onto the UFC scene in March 2024, showcasing relentless forward pressure and a willingness to mix takedowns with striking. At 69 inches tall and with a 68-inch arm reach, she uses her height advantage to overwhelm opponents.

Recent Form

In two UFC outings and a broader 9–2 professional ledger, Zhelezniakova’s recent trajectory is:

1. Loss – Submission vs. Ailin Perez (Sep. 28, 2024) – 1st round, 3:52
2. Win – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Montserrat Rendon (Mar. 23, 2024) – 3 rounds

Prior to her UFC tenure, she accumulated seven straight wins—five by knockout—demonstrating her finishing capability on the regional circuit.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Takedown Accuracy (100%) – Perfect in her limited shoots, adding a dangerous dimension to her stand-up assault.
• Significant Strike Defense (80%) – Exceptional at avoiding big shots, making her a tough target on the feet.
• Power Striking – 5 KO wins attest to her ability to change the fight with one blow.

Weaknesses:

• Submission Defense – The loss by arm-triangle choke to Perez exposes gaps in her grappling defense.
• Striking Accuracy (38%) – Below par, indicating her aggression can lead to wasted energy and missed opportunities.
• Takedown Defense (50%) – Vulnerable to wrestlers who can neutralize her striking and drag her into deep grappling exchanges.

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This matchup pits Mullins’ polished stand-up and takedown defense against Zhelezniakova’s pressure striking and perfect takedown success. Each fighter enters with clear blueprints for victory—and known vulnerabilities—setting the stage for a compelling stylistic battle at 135 pounds.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As fight week approaches, the wagering markets have firmly established Melissa Mullins as the favorite and Daria Zhelezniakova as the underdog.

• Melissa Mullins (–250 to –251)

  • Caesars: –250
  • BetRivers: –250
  • BetOnline.ag: –251

• Daria Zhelezniakova (+195 to +211)

  • Caesars: +205
  • BetRivers: +195
  • BetOnline.ag: +211

The gap between a –250 favorite and a +195 underdog underscores the market’s confidence in Mullins’ superior striking and takedown defense. However, Zhelezniakova’s best line at +211 (BetOnline.ag) makes her the more lucrative pick for value seekers.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Underdog Value: BetOnline.ag at +211
• For Favorite Value: BetOnline.ag at –251 (marginally better than other books)

If you’re chasing maximum upside on Zhelezniakova, BetOnline.ag is the go-to. For a more balanced experience with competitive juice on Mullins, Caesars or BetRivers will suffice.

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Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking the line movement offers insight into how money has shifted and where sharp bettors are backing their fighters:

1. Early Open (June 4)

   • Zhelezniakova opened at +210 (BetOnline.ag) ; Mullins at –250.

2. Midweek Adjustment

   • Caesars released Zhelezniakova at +205 (June 6), indicating light action on the favorite. Mullins stayed put at –250.

3. Late Sharpening (June 9)

   • BetRivers trimmed Zhelezniakova from +200 to +195 as bettors backed the Russian.
   • BetOnline.ag floated Zhelezniakova back up to +211, suggesting sharp accounts picking apart the early dip.

Key Takeaway:

• Mullins’ line has remained remarkably stable (–250/–251), reflecting sustained confidence in her skill set.
• Zhelezniakova’s line has oscillated between +195 and +211, hinting at a tug-of-war between value seekers and public money.

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$1,000 Bet Payouts

If you’re staking $1,000 on fight night, here’s your potential haul:

• Melissa Mullins (–250)

  • Profit: $400
  • Total Return: $1,400

• Daria Zhelezniakova (+211)

  • Profit: $2,110
  • Total Return: $3,110

With over $2,000 in profit on a Zhelezniakova lean, the underdog route offers a significant payday—albeit with lower implied chances.

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Implied Probability

• Mullins (–250): ~71% chance to win
• Zhelezniakova (+211): ~32% chance to win

While the numbers skew heavily toward Mullins, the volatility in Zhelezniakova’s line suggests there is appetite among bettors who believe she can spring a major upset. Whether you back the favorite’s consistency or chase the underdog’s upside, these odds and their movement will be critical for crafting smart bets on fight night.