Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier Fight Odds & AI Pick

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier fight breakdown

Introduction

The highly anticipated Lightweight clash between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier is set to take place on Sunday, July 20, 2025, as part of the Main Card at UFC 318. The fight goes down at the iconic Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, with the Octagon doors opening around 2:00 AM ET (7:00 AM GMT). This contest marks the rubber-match between two of the division’s most seasoned veterans and promises fireworks as they vie to stake their claim in one of the sport’s deepest weight classes.

Venue & Date

• Event: UFC 318 – Holloway vs Poirier 3
• Date: July 20, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM ET (5:00 AM PT, 7:00 AM GMT)
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Fighters & Rankings

• Max Holloway (#5 Lightweight) – The former Featherweight champion has carried his blistering volume striking and elite cardio up to 155 pounds, compiling a 26-8-0 record. At 32 years old, Holloway’s Muay Thai pedigree and championship experience have made him a perennial fan favorite, renowned for his relentless pace and pinpoint striking.
• Dustin Poirier (#6 Lightweight) – Known as “The Diamond,” Poirier enters with a 30-9-0 record and finishing power in both strikes and submissions. At 36, his Jiu-Jitsu background and improved boxing have propelled him into title contention, earning memorable wins over top contenders across two weight classes.

Betting Landscape: Favorite vs. Underdog

Across major sportsbooks, Max Holloway holds the edge as a slight favorite (ranging from –122 to –136 on FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, and BetRivers), underscoring his status as the strategic striker with championship DNA. Conversely, Dustin Poirier sits on the underdog line (roughly +105 to +110), reflecting belief in his finishing ability but caution over his recent inconsistencies against top-ranked opposition.

This matchup carries significant implications. A win for Holloway would bolster claims for a lightweight title shot and demonstrate his seamless transition from Featherweight dominance. A victory for Poirier not only evens the series at 1–1 but also cements his legacy as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers. With contrasting styles—Holloway’s volume striking and takedown defense against Poirier’s power and submission prowess—this fight promises a chess match punctuated by moments of explosive action.

As the fighters make their final preparations in New Orleans, fans and bettors alike are bracing for a technical war that could swing in either direction. From Holloway’s signature leg kicks to Poirier’s precision counters and ground transitions, every exchange will be pivotal in determining who controls the lightweight pecking order moving forward. Whether you’re a casual fan or a seasoned handicapper, this bout encapsulates the essence of high-stakes MMA: stylistic intrigue, division legacy, and the ever-present potential for a knockout or submission finish.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Max Holloway Profile

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai
• Height: 71 in • Reach: 69 in

Max “Blessed” Holloway is a former Featherweight champion who has seamlessly transitioned to Lightweight, bringing his legendary volume striking and elite cardio into one of the UFC’s deepest divisions. Since his UFC debut in February 2012, Holloway has amassed a 26-8-0 record, with victories over top contenders like Justin Gaethje, Chan Sung Jung and Arnold Allen.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Oct. 26, 2024 vs. Ilia Topuria — Loss (KO/TKO), R3, 1:34
• Apr. 13, 2024 vs. Justin Gaethje — Win (KO/TKO), R5, 4:59
• Aug. 26, 2023 vs. Chan Sung Jung — Win (KO/TKO), R3, 0:23
• Apr. 15, 2023 vs. Arnold Allen — Win (Decision – Unanimous), R5, 5:00
• Jul. 2, 2022 vs. Alexander Volkanovski — Loss (Decision – Unanimous), R5, 5:00

Strengths

• High-Volume Striking: Averages 301 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes with a 48% accuracy.
• Elite Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 16:05, often outworking opponents deep into championship rounds.
• Takedown Defense: Stout at 83%, neutralizing wrestling threats and keeping the fight standing.
• Championship Experience: Five-round veteran with proven ability to adjust mid-fight.

Weaknesses

• Chin Exposure: Two of Holloway’s last three defeats came by KO/TKO, raising questions about his ability to weather one-shot power.
• Submission Game: Only 2 submission wins in 26 victories and limited grappling finishes may be a liability if taken down.
• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages in UFC; slow starter against rush-heavy opponents.

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Dustin Poirier Profile

Background

• Age: 36
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• Height: 69 in • Reach: 72 in

“The Diamond” has carved out a legendary career with a well-rounded arsenal of boxing power and world-class grappling. Since his UFC debut on Jan. 2, 2011, Poirier holds a 30-9-0 record, highlighted by wins over Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor and Justin Gaethje.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Jun. 1, 2024 vs. Islam Makhachev — Loss (Submission), R5, 2:42
• Mar. 9, 2024 vs. Benoit Saint Denis — Win (KO/TKO), R2, 2:32
• Jul. 29, 2023 vs. Justin Gaethje — Loss (KO/TKO), R2, 1:00
• Nov. 12, 2022 vs. Michael Chandler — Win (Submission), R3, 2:00
• Dec. 11, 2021 vs. Charles Oliveira — Loss (Submission), R3, 1:02

Strengths

• Striking Power & Accuracy: 51% sig-strike accuracy, capable of ending fights with precise counters.
• Finishing Instincts: 16 KO wins, 7 submissions and 13 first-round finishes, showcasing versatility.
• Ground Game: Solid takedown defense (64%) and submission pedigree—dangerous once on top.
• Explosive Offense: Average fight time 10:17 means Poirier often dictates action early.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Concerns: Fights often end in early rounds; less tested in deep championship rounds.
• Strike Defense: 53% defense rate suggests vulnerability to volume strikers and leg-kick accumulations.
• Weight-Class Wear: At age 36 and over 30 UFC fights, durability in later rounds against Bull-headed opponents is a question mark.

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Head-to-Head Implications

Holloway’s relentless pace and superior cardio will aim to outwork Poirier over five frames, while “The Diamond” will look to land fight-ending power shots or secure takedowns to exploit Holloway’s limited wrestling offense. The clash of styles—Holloway’s high-volume Muay Thai versus Poirier’s explosive boxing and Jiu-Jitsu—creates a compelling strategic battle, with each man’s strengths directly targeting his opponent’s areas of vulnerability.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of July 7, 2025, Max Holloway is a clear favorite over Dustin Poirier, albeit by a slim margin. Here’s a snapshot of the best available lines:

• Max Holloway: –122 (FanDuel) | –115 (Caesars) | –130 (BetOnline.ag, DraftKings)
• Dustin Poirier: +110 (BetOnline.ag, DraftKings) | +107 (BetRivers) | +105 (BetMGM)

Holloway’s status as the favorite reflects confidence in his volume striking and takedown defense, while Poirier’s plus-money line marks him as the underdog. If you’re shopping for the best value:

• For a favorite wager: FanDuel’s –122 on Holloway is your best bet.
• For an underdog play: BetOnline.ag or DraftKings at +110 on Poirier offers the highest payout.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking the line movement over the past few weeks reveals some notable swings for both fighters:

• Dustin Poirier

  • June 21: Opened around –105 (DraftKings) / +100 (BetOnline)
  • June 29 (Caesars): Peaked at –120
  • July 2: Drifted to –105, then to +100 (Caesars) before settling back at +110
  • July 7: Steady at +107 (BetRivers) and +110 (BetOnline)

  Poirier’s line has vacillated nearly 20 cents on the moneyline, swinging from favorite territory back into underdog status. This volatility suggests bettors are split on whether his power and submissions can overcome Holloway’s pace.

• Max Holloway

  • July 1: Started at –108 (FanDuel)
  • July 2: Sharpened to –125 (FanDuel) and –115 (Caesars)
  • July 5: Extended to –136 (BetRivers)
  • July 7: Pulled back slightly to –122 (FanDuel) / –115 (BetMGM)

  Holloway’s line saw a sharp move toward him early in July, likely driven by sharp action on his championship pedigree, before easing off slightly as Poirier’s backers returned.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• FanDuel stands out for betting on Holloway at –122, the shortest favorite line and thus the best return among major books.
• BetOnline.ag (and DraftKings) lead for Poirier at +110, delivering the highest payout on the underdog.

Line shopping across these sportsbooks can net you an extra few percentage points edge, which is crucial in tight fights.

$1,000 Wager Payouts & Implied Chances

• If you back Max Holloway at –122 with $1,000, you’d collect roughly $1,820 back (your $1,000 stake + ~$820 profit).
• If you roll with Dustin Poirier at +110 and risk $1,000, you’d receive about $2,100 total (your $1,000 stake + $1,100 profit).

In terms of implied likelihood:

• Holloway’s odds imply he’s favored to win just over half the time, reflecting his elite cardio and volume striking.
• Poirier’s return suggests he’s viewed as roughly a 45–48% chance winner, highlighting respect for his power and grappling but acknowledging the threat of Holloway’s pace.

By understanding these odds nuances and tracking line movement, bettors can make more informed decisions—whether chasing value on the underdog or locking in a slight favorite edge.