Fiziev vs Bahamondes Prediction & Odds | UFC Baku Analysis

Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes fight breakdown

Event Overview

Mark your calendars for June 21, 2025, when two of the UFC’s most exciting lightweights collide on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. The action gets underway at 19:00 UTC (local time) inside the iconic Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. This pivotal matchup sits squarely in the Lightweight Division, where every win or loss can dramatically reshape the top-15 picture.

Betting Odds & Title Implications

Oddsmakers have installed Rafael Fiziev as the favorite at -130 (American odds) with both Caesars and BetOnline.ag, banking on his proven finishing power and top-15 ranking (#11). On the flip side, Ignacio Bahamondes checks in as the underdog at +110, despite a red-hot 4-fight winning streak in the UFC.

• Favorite: Rafael Fiziev (–130)
• Underdog: Ignacio Bahamondes (+110)

A victory for Fiziev could vault him back into serious contention toward a top-10 spot, especially after a pair of razor-thin losses to Justin Gaethje and Mateusz Gamrot. For Bahamondes, a win over a ranked opponent on foreign soil would mark the biggest triumph of his UFC career, instantly elevating him into the divisional conversation.

Contrasting Styles & Stakes

At 32 years old, Fiziev brings a Muay Thai arsenal that has produced 8 knockouts in 12 UFC victories. He boasts a crisp 52% significant strike accuracy and a 57% takedown success rate, making him a versatile threat both standing and on the mat. His average fight time of 12:01 underscores his willingness to engage into the championship rounds.

Meanwhile, 27-year-old Bahamondes relies on a freestyle striking background, peppering opponents with creative stand-up and unnerving pace. With 11 KO wins in 17 professional victories and a scorching 47% significant strike accuracy, he has finished 9 fights in Round 1. His 0% takedown offense indicates a clear game plan: keep it upright and land the knockout blow early.

Why This Fight Matters

• Momentum vs. Redemption: Bahamondes is riding high on three consecutive opening-round finishes, while Fiziev is desperate to halt a two-fight skid against elite contenders.
• Ranking Ramifications: A win for either man in Baku’s main card will deliver an immediate jolt up the lightweight ladder.
• Fan Appeal: Expect fireworks from bell to bell. With both fighters carrying double-digit KO totals, a finish—especially in the opening rounds—remains highly likely.

Whether you back the precision and experience of Rafael Fiziev or the unbridled aggression of Ignacio Bahamondes, this matchup has all the makings of a classic lightweight showdown. Don’t miss the fireworks on June 21 in Baku!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Ignacio Bahamondes: The Chilean Powerhouse

Age: 27
Country: Chile
Fighting Style: Freestyle Striking

Recent Form (Last 5):

• Win vs. Jalin Turner (Submission, R1 – UFC 300)
• Win vs. Manuel Torres (KO/TKO, R1 – Sep. 14, 2024)
• Win vs. Christos Giagos (KO/TKO, R1 – Apr. 6, 2024)
• Loss vs. Ludovit Klein (Decision – Unanimous, Mar. 2023)
• Win vs. Trey Ogden (Decision – Unanimous, Apr. 2023)

Bahamondes has ripped through his last three UFC opponents—scoring two opening-round knockouts and a slick first-round armbar on Jalin Turner. His 47% significant strike accuracy and 58% strike defense reflect both his precision and head-movement prowess. He thrives on early aggression, averaging just 9:55 minutes per fight, and has recorded 9 first-round finishes in his 22 pro outings.

Strengths:

• Explosive Power: 11 KOs on his ledger; fights rarely see Round 2.
• Striking Defense: At 58%, he consistently avoids heavy counters, staying elusive in pocket exchanges.
• Quick Starts: High‐octane at the opening bell, forcing opponents into firefights.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Offense: 0% takedown accuracy signals a serious deficiency on the mat; against a wrestler or heavy grappler, his offense stalls.
• Accuracy Ceiling: Sub-50% striking accuracy means he can miss big bombs, especially against high-volume strikers.
• Cardio Durability: His penchant for early finishes can leave him gasping if the knockout fails to materialize.

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Rafael Fiziev: The Muay Thai Technician

Age: 32
Country: Kyrgyzstan / Azerbaijan
Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Recent Form (Last 5):

• Loss vs. Justin Gaethje (Decision – Unanimous, Mar. 8, 2025)
• Loss vs. Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2 – Sep. 23, 2023)
• Loss vs. Justin Gaethje (Decision – Majority, Mar. 18, 2023)
• Win vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (KO/TKO, R5 – Jul. 9, 2022)
• Win vs. Brad Riddell (KO/TKO, R3 – Dec. 4, 2021)

Fiziev’s 52% significant strike accuracy and 57% takedown success underscore his versatility: he can pick opponents apart at range or drag them down to punish on the mat. His 12:01 average fight time speaks to both his finishing ability and willingness to push a relentless pace deep into Round 5. Despite a three-fight skid—two razor-thin decisions to Gaethje and a TKO at the hands of Gamrot—he remains a perennial top-15 threat.

Strengths:

• Well‐Rounded Attack: Lethal Muay Thai clinch, elbows, and kicks; plus a reliable wrestling entry game.
• Takedown Offense & Defense: 57% accuracy on takedowns, while thwarting 90% of opponents’ attempts.
• Experience & Championship Rounds: Comfortable in deep waters, often shining when others fade.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: At 49%, he absorbs nearly half of significant strikes thrown his way—vulnerable in brawls.
• Chin Durability: The KO loss to Gamrot hints at a susceptibility to heavy counters.
• Mindset Under Pressure: Two unanimous decision losses to Gaethje suggest difficulty adjusting mid-fight against elite-level pace.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This clash pits Bahamondes’ explosive, finish‐first mentality against Fiziev’s technical precision and grappling tools. Will the Chilean storm start overwhelm the Muay Thai specialist before the championship rounds, or will Fiziev’s durability and diverse arsenal turn off the lights on the main card in Baku? Each fighter’s statistical profile and recent results set the stage for a classic striker vs. striker battle—with the added wrinkle of grappling for Fiziev and pure knockout power for Bahamondes.

Betting Odds & Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

• Rafael Fiziev (Favorite): –130 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag)
• Ignacio Bahamondes (Underdog): +110 (Caesars, BetOnline.ag)

Oddsmakers have installed Rafael Fiziev as the favorite at –130, meaning you’d risk $130 to win $100 on his victory. Ignacio Bahamondes checks in as the underdog at +110, so a $100 wager returns $110 profit if he pulls off the upset. Both Caesars and BetOnline.ag currently mirror these lines, making them the go-to sportsbooks for this fight—offering tight juice, reliable odds posting, and user-friendly interfaces.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

A close look at the line history reveals some fascinating shifts:

• Caesars

  • Rafael Fiziev: Opened at –150 on June 6 and has since tightened to –130.
  • Ignacio Bahamondes: Opened at +125 on June 6 and has since shortened to +110.

  This 20-point convergence suggests significant early money backing Bahamondes, prompting the book to adjust and entice more action on Fiziev.

• BetOnline.ag

  • Ignacio Bahamondes: Began at +120 on June 4, dipped to +115, then inverted to –101 (momentarily a favorite!), before settling at +110.
  • Rafael Fiziev: Fluctuated between –140 and –130, even peaking at –150 on June 6, but closed at –130.

  That dramatic swing—turning Bahamondes into a temporary favorite—points to substantial sharp action or a hedge by professional bettors, followed by a recalibration once public money poured in on Fiziev.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Chances

If you’re eyeing a $1,000 bet on fight night:

• Bahamondes (+110): You’d pocket $1,100 in profit (total return $2,100) if he wins.
• Fiziev (–130): You’d bank roughly $769 in profit (total return ~$1,769) if he prevails.

In terms of implied probabilities, the current odds translate to about a 56% chance for Fiziev and a 48% chance for Bahamondes—underscoring a fairly competitive matchup despite the favorite/underdog designation.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

• Underdog Value: Bahamondes’ line shortening from +125 to +110 hints at growing confidence in his finish-first style. A $1,000 bet on him not only offers a solid return but also capitalizes on the momentum he’s built in recent fights.
• Favorite Stability: Fiziev’s status as a technical Muay Thai threat keeps him on the right side of the line, yet the modest juice reduction (-150 to -130) suggests the market isn’t fully sold on his ability to dominate.
• Sharp vs. Public Money: The volatile swings at BetOnline.ag—particularly Bahamondes’ brief stint as a –101 favorite—signal early professional interest. Once retail bettors piled on, the lines stabilized closer to even money.

Whether you side with the seasoned precision of Rafael Fiziev or the explosive power of Ignacio Bahamondes, understanding these line movements and payout structures will help you find the sharpest angle heading into fight night.