Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov: UFC Abu Dhabi Preview

Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov fight analysis

Event Overview

Mark your calendars for Saturday, July 26, 2025: Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov is set to kick off the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder. The bout will take place at the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, with the preliminary action slated to begin at 4:00 PM UTC (8:00 PM local Gulf Standard Time). Fans tuning in worldwide can catch the live stream on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ (U.S.), as the fighters look to make a statement early on in one of the deepest divisions in combat sports.

Contender Breakdown

This Light Heavyweight clash features two dynamic strikers at different crossroads of their UFC careers:

• The Favorite – Nikita Krylov (-185)

  • Ranking: #10 in the Light Heavyweight division
  • Record: 30-10-0 (12 KOs, 16 submissions)
  • Style: Karate base with heavy hands and slick submissions
  • Recent Form: Coming off a first-round knockout loss to Dominick Reyes, Krylov will be eager to reassert himself among the divisional elite.

• The Underdog – Bogdan Guskov (+155)

  • Ranking: #13 in the Light Heavyweight division
  • Record: 17-3-0 (14 KOs, 3 submissions)
  • Style: Pure MMA puncher with blistering power (12 first-round finishes)
  • Recent Form: Guskov suffered a decision loss to Billy Elekana in January but boasts highlight-reel knockouts over the likes of Ryan Spann and Zac Pauga.

What’s at Stake

With knockout power on both sides, an early finish is more than likely. Krylov needs to shake off the frustration of a rare early setback, while Guskov aims to solidify his growing reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous men in the first five minutes. A win here could catapult the victor into the top-10 discussion and set up a potential clash with a marquee name later in the year.

Betting Outlook

Oddsmakers have installed Nikita Krylov as a solid favorite (-185) across major books such as Caesars and BetMGM, reflecting his veteran savvy and well-rounded skill set. Meanwhile, Bogdan Guskov sits firmly on the plus side (+155), offering an enticing payout for bettors banking on his heavy-handed style and momentum in the division.

As UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for this pivotal night of fights, all eyes will be on Krylov and Guskov to deliver fireworks. Will the seasoned submission artist regain his form, or will the Uzbek powerhouse shock the world and upset the rankings hierarchy? This is the Light Heavyweight showdown you won’t want to miss.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup & Individual Fighter Profiles

Nikita Krylov: The Well-Rounded Veteran

Age: 33
Country: Donetsk, Ukraine
Fighting Style: Karate base with heavy hands and slick submission transitions

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

• Apr. 12, 2025 – Loss vs Dominick Reyes (KO/TKO, R1, 2:24)
• Mar. 11, 2023 – Win vs Ryan Spann (Submission, R1, 3:38)
• Oct. 22, 2022 – Win vs Volkan Oezdemir (Unanimous Decision, 5:00)
• Jul. 23, 2022 – Win vs Alexander Gustafsson (KO/TKO, R1, 1:07)
• Mar. 19, 2022 – Loss vs Paul Craig (Submission, R1, 3:57)

Krylov enters this contest 2-1 in his last three and 3-2 in his last five. After rattling off three straight wins—including highlight-reel finishes of Gustafsson and Spann—he was dethroned by the explosive Dominick Reyes.

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 23 of his 30 wins end in Round 1, and he boasts a rapid average fight time of 6:41.
• Submission Prowess: 16 career submissions; his transitions off the clinch and striking feints keep opponents guessing.
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 55% of significant strikes, leveraging his karate footwork to set up counters.
• Takedown Offense: 38% takedown accuracy adds a second dimension, forcing strikers to respect his level changes.

Weaknesses

• Defense Under Duress: His 45% significant strike defense indicates he absorbs damage when pressured.
• Takedown Defense: At 53%, he can be vulnerable to heavy wrestlers who force him into scrambles.
• Consistency at Elite Level: Losses to Reyes and Craig suggest difficulty when opponents match his wrestling or power.

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Bogdan Guskov: The Uzbek Power Puncher

Age: 32
Country: Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Fighting Style: MMA all-around striker with a puncher’s pedigree

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

• Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs Billy Elekana (Decision)
• Apr. 27, 2024 – Win vs Ryan Spann (KO/TKO, R2, 3:16)
• Feb. 10, 2024 – Win vs Zac Pauga (KO/TKO, R1, 3:38)
• Sep. 2, 2023 – Loss vs Volkan Oezdemir (Submission, R1, 3:46)

Guskov is 2-2 in his last four, with both wins coming by devastating knockout and both losses exposing gaps in his grappling and late-round pacing.

Strengths

• Elite Power: 14 of 17 wins by KO/TKO; 71% finishing rate via strike—dangerous anytime he closes distance.
• Fast Starters: 12 first-round stoppages; opponents must weather an early onslaught.
• Striking Defense: Baffles foes with 50% significant strike defense, blending head movement with high guard counters.
• Volume & Pressure: Maintains high output in early rounds, forcing exchanges where he excels.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Void: 0% takedown accuracy demonstrates almost no wrestling threat, leaving his ground defense (50%) exposed.
• Cardio Concerns: No fights beyond Round 2 end in his favor—if Krylov survives early, Guskov may fade.
• Limited Adaptability: Relies heavily on power; technically precise opponents can weather storms and exploit holes in his defense.

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Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker-versus-striker clash with a grappling twist. Krylov’s submission pedigree and varied attack could neutralize Guskov’s knockout power if he drags the bout into deeper waters. Conversely, Guskov’s one-punch finishing ability makes any exchange potentially fight-ending in the blink of an eye. The outcome rests on whether Krylov can impose a wrestling-striking hybrid game plan before the Uzbek bull rush unsettles him.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of July 14, 2025, Nikita Krylov is the clear favorite across all major books, while Bogdan Guskov sits firmly on the plus side. Here’s how the moneylines line up:

• Nikita Krylov:
  • Caesars, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag: –185
  • DraftKings: –192
  • BetRivers: –180 (best price for favorites)
• Bogdan Guskov:
  • Caesars: +155
  • BetMGM: +150
  • DraftKings: +160 (best price for underdogs)
  • BetRivers: +140
  • BetOnline.ag: +160

The gap between –185 and +155 implies a sizable edge for Krylov, but Guskov’s power and recent line swings suggest value on the underdog.

Line Movement & Swings

A close look at the odds history reveals some dramatic shifts:

• Krylov opened around –170 at BetOnline.ag on July 10, dropped to as low as –145, then rocketed back to –185 after a flurry of early bets.
• Guskov began near +145, slid to +125 on heavy early action, then bounced back to +160 at DraftKings and BetOnline.ag as sharp money countered.

These swings indicate two camps of bettors:

1. Sharp Action on Guskov Early: Bettors jumped on his early underdog line, pushing it from +145 to +125.
2. Public Backing of Krylov: As mainstream bettors piled in on the veteran, his line firmed up to nearly –200 before settling around –185.

If you like Guskov, snagging +160 at DraftKings or BetOnline.ag is your best play. If you’re siding with Krylov, BetRivers offers the juiciest –180.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Underdog Play (Guskov): DraftKings or BetOnline.ag at +160—highest return.
• Favorite Play (Krylov): BetRivers at –180—smallest juice on the favorite.

$1,000 Bet Payout & Implied Probability

• $1,000 on Nikita Krylov (–185):

  • Payout: $1,555 (your $1,000 stake + $555 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: about 65%

• $1,000 on Bogdan Guskov (+155):

  • Payout: $2,550 (your $1,000 stake + $1,550 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: about 39%

While Krylov’s implied probability reflects his veteran savvy and all‐around skill set, Guskov’s payout is far more lucrative and caters to bettors expecting a power‐punching upset. Choose your side based on risk tolerance: a safer return backing Krylov, or a high‐upside play on Guskov’s finishing ability.