Winner: Ilia Topuria
Confidence Score: 70Ilia Topuria is undefeated and entering his prime at age 28, while Charles Oliveira is 35 and has shown some decline in recent fights, including losses to Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria's takedown defense (93%) and significant strike defense (64%) are elite, which is crucial against Oliveira's submission-heavy style (21 submission wins). Historically, fighters with Topuria's age, undefeated record, and defensive stats have a high win rate against older, submission-based opponents who are coming off recent losses. Topuria also has a high takedown accuracy (61%) and first-round finishing ability (9 first-round finishes in 16 fights), suggesting he can dictate where the fight takes place and avoid Oliveira's grappling threats. Oliveira's reach and striking accuracy are advantages, but Topuria's durability, defensive acumen, and momentum make him the likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.