Winner: Alexandre Pantoja
Confidence Score: 74Alexandre Pantoja is the current flyweight champion with a strong all-around MMA skillset and a proven record against elite competition. He has a better overall record (29-5 vs 25-11), significantly more submission wins (11 vs 3), and a higher takedown accuracy (47% vs 33%), which is critical against a striker like Kai Kara-France. While Kai has excellent takedown defense (88%) and dangerous knockout power, Pantoja's relentless grappling, submission threat, and ability to mix striking and takedowns have historically troubled opponents with similar profiles to Kai. Pantoja has also shown he can go five rounds at a championship pace, whereas Kai has faltered in longer fights. Historically, fighters with Pantoja's grappling edge and finishing ability have a higher win rate in flyweight title bouts against striking-heavy opponents. Recent form favors Pantoja, who is on a title run, while Kai has lost two of his last three, including a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno, whom Pantoja has beaten. The stylistic matchup and championship experience give Pantoja the edge.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.