Dariush vs Moicano UFC 317: Odds, Analysis & Picks

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano fight analysis

Introduction

Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano is set to light up the Octagon on June 29, 2025, at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of the stacked UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira card. The lightweight clash kicks off on the prelims at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT, and it features a battle between two top-ten contenders—#9 Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) and #10 Renato Moicano (20-6-1). Across major sportsbooks like FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, and BetRivers, Moicano enters as the clear favorite at roughly –160 (FanDuel: –166; DraftKings: –162), while Dariush lines up as the underdog in the +130 range (DraftKings: +136; BetRivers: +120). This pricing reflects Moicano’s recent three-fight winning streak—highlighted by a vicious second-round TKO over Jalin Turner and a doctor’s stoppage win against Benoit Saint Denis—contrasted with Dariush’s two early‐round knockout losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira in his last five outings.

On paper, this matchup is a stylistic chess match: Moicano’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree, 10 submission victories, and improved striking power will test Dariush’s legendary grit, relentless pressure, and top-notch takedown defense (81%). Both fighters boast a 49% significant strike accuracy, but Moicano’s superior 61% strike defense could frustrate Dariush’s volume-based assault, while Dariush’s 8 first-round finishes and eight career submissions remind us that he is never out of a fight on the ground. Bettors should note that Moicano’s takedown accuracy sits at 44%, meaning Dariush’s stalwart defense could force this bout to play out standing, where Dariush’s counter-striking and leg-kick arsenal have earned him unanimous decision victories over Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot.

The odds have shifted over the past month—Moicano’s line dipped as low as –184 (FanDuel) before settling near –160, while Dariush’s number climbed from +140 to +150 on DraftKings before ending around +130—demonstrating growing confidence in Moicano’s momentum but also lingering respect for Dariush’s veteran savvy. As both athletes chase the next rung toward title contention, this fight carries high stakes: a win for Moicano cements his spot in the top eight and keeps him on a collision course with division elites, whereas a victory for Dariush would silence critics, avenge recent setbacks, and potentially place him back among the lightweight elite. Expect a calculated, high-tempo affair where precision, cardio, and tactical adaptability decide who emerges victorious on Las Vegas fight night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Renato Moicano: The Brazilian Submission Specialist

• Age: 35
• Country: Brasilia, Brazil
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Well-Rounded Striker

Renato Moicano (20-6-1) enters this clash riding a 4-1 run over his last five outings. After a dominant 2022 submission win over Brad Riddell, he notched back-to-back victories in early 2024—a second-round KO/TKO of Jalin Turner and a doctor’s stoppage win against Benoit Saint Denis—before falling via first-round arm-triangle to lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev at UFC 295. Moicano’s record boasts 10 submission triumphs, but his striking has come on in recent years, culminating in 49% significant strike accuracy and a laudable 61% significant strike defense rate. On the mat, he converts 44% of takedown attempts and defends 71% of incoming trips, making him a dual-threat who can blend slick grappling with crisp stand-up.

Strengths:

• Elite submission pedigree (10 subs) and 4 first-round finishes keep opponents wary on the ground.
• Excellent striking defense (61%) allows him to negate volume punchers.
• Improved knockout power, evidenced by two knockout victories in 2024.

Weaknesses:

• Modest takedown accuracy (44%) may invite counter-wrestling specialists to control the pace.
• Only 2 KO wins in a 27-fight career suggest limits to one-punch stopping power.
• A 9:09 average fight time indicates fewer early finishes against top-level opposition.

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Beneil Dariush: The Durable Pressure Fighter

• Age: 36
• Country: Iran / United States
• Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA (Wrestling Base / Submission Savvy)

Veteran Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) arrives after a 3-2 skid, dropping back-to-back first-round knockout losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan in 2023. Prior to those setbacks, he had reeled off three consecutive unanimous decision wins over Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson, and Diego Ferreira between 2021–22. Dariush’s toolkit features 5 KO wins, 8 submissions, and an impressive 8 first-round finishes, underpinned by a relentless forward pace and gritty durability. He lands 49% of his significant strikes and defends 58%, while his 81% takedown defense is among the division’s best—though his offensive wrestling has produced just a 34% takedown accuracy.

Strengths:

• Elite takedown defense (81%) frustrates wrestlers and grapplers alike.
• High finishing rate: 13 stoppages (KO & sub) in 22 wins, including 8 first-round finishes.
• Exceptional cardio and pressure, grinding out decisions over five rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Vulnerable to early power strikes, as shown by two first-round KO losses in his last five.
• Below-average takedown offense (34%) against elite defensive wrestlers.
• Strike defense (58%) lags behind Moicano’s 61%, potentially exposing him to counters.

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Head-to-Head Breakdown

Stylistically, Moicano’s grappling acumen and improved boxing could clash with Dariush’s pressure wrestling and submission hunting. Moicano will look to use superior strike defense and underhook entries to set up trips or drag this fight to the mat, where his Jiu-Jitsu offers multiple submission pathways. In contrast, Dariush must leverage his pressure, leg-kick volume, and top-tier takedown defense to keep Moicano honest in striking exchanges. Should this scrap stay standing, Moicano’s elusive counters and technical striking advantage may accumulate damage. If it hits the mat, Moicano remains the favorite, but Dariush’s ability to scramble and defend makes him a dangerous foe on the canvas. This clash of high-level grappling credentials and evolving striking arsenals promises a compelling stylistic duel with momentum swinging on every exchange.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Renato Moicano is firmly installed as the favorite across the board, while Beneil Dariush carries the underdog tag:

• FanDuel:

  • Moicano: –166
  • Dariush: +130

• BetOnline.ag:

  • Moicano: –160
  • Dariush: +140

• DraftKings:

  • Moicano: –162
  • Dariush: +136

• BetRivers:

  • Moicano: –155 ← Best price on the favorite
  • Dariush: +120

Key Takeaways:

• Moicano commands roughly a –160 to –166 line, implying he enters the cage with about a 61% chance to win.
• Dariush hovers in the +130 to +140 range, suggesting around a 42% shot.
• The sharpest line on Moicano is at BetRivers (–155), and the juiciest underdog odds on Dariush sit at BetOnline (+140).

Line Movement & Historical Swings

A quick glance at the betting markets reveals notable swings over the past month:

• FanDuel (Moicano):

  • Opened near –180 on May 21
  • Ticked down to –184 by June 15
  • Settled at –166 as of June 16

• BetOnline.ag (Moicano):

  • Early quote: –142
  • Sharp push to –185 as pundits leaned on Moicano’s recent KO wins
  • Retreat back to –145 amid public money on Dariush

• FanDuel (Dariush):

  • Started around +140
  • Brief bump to +142
  • Now back at +130

• BetOnline.ag (Dariush):

  • Initial offering: +122
  • Lounded out to +160 after Moicano’s impressive TKO victories
  • Crashed back to +140 as bettors wagered on Dariush’s veteran experience

These shifts underscore two narratives: the market’s respect for Moicano’s finishing power and a counterflow of support for Dariush’s resilience and wrestling acumen.

Payout & Implied Probability

If you’re laying down $1,000 on fight night:

• BetRivers on Moicano (–155)

  • Profit: $645
  • Total return: $1,645

• BetOnline.ag on Dariush (+140)

  • Profit: $1,400
  • Total return: $2,400

Based on these lines, Moicano’s likelihood to win sits near 61%, while Dariush’s chances are pegged at roughly 42%.

Best Sportsbook Picks:

• To back the favorite at optimal value, BetRivers’ –155 line on Moicano is the standout.
• To ride the underdog, BetOnline.ag’s +140 on Dariush maximizes your payout.

Whether you side with the dynamic Brazilian grappler or the battle-tested Iranian-American slugger, understanding these odds and their movement is crucial for crafting a winning wager on fight night.