Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov UFC 317 Odds & AI Pick

Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Sunday, June 29, 2025, fight fans will descend on the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for what promises to be a thrilling Middleweight clash on the main card of UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira. Scheduled to begin at 2:00 AM ET, the bout pits Brazil’s power-punching veteran Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa against surging Russian contender Roman Kopylov.

When and Where

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Time: Main card slate kicks off at 2:00 AM ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira (Main Card)

This contest represents a pivotal moment for both athletes. Roman Kopylov (14-3-0) enters the Octagon riding a two-fight winning streak, including a spectacular third-round TKO over Chris Curtis at UFC 293. Boasting a 51% significant striking accuracy and 87% takedown defense, the #14-ranked contender has firmed into a heavy favorite on the boards, with moneyline odds hovering between –240 and –295 across top sportsbooks like BetRivers, DraftKings, and FanDuel.

Opposite Kopylov stands Paulo Costa (14-4-0), a former title challenger known for his explosive power and high-octane striking. “Borrachinha” has secured 11 knockouts and an impressive nine first-round finishes during his UFC tenure. Despite a recent two-fight skid against elite opposition (Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker), Costa remains a dangerous underdog, fetching odds of +180 to +220 depending on your bookmaker of choice.

| Fighter | Record | Odds Range | Notable Stat | |-------------------|-----------|---------------|----------------------------------------| | Roman Kopylov | 14-3-0 | –240 to –295 | 12 KOs, 87% Takedown Defense | | Paulo Costa | 14-4-0 | +180 to +220 | 58% Strike Accuracy, 9 First-Round KOs |

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

• Favorite: Roman Kopylov
  • Ranked #14 in the Middleweight division
  • Versatile striker with a 51% landing rate, 55% strike defense
  • Proven finishing ability (12 KOs)
• Underdog: Paulo Costa
  • Former title challenger, known for one-punch power
  • Elite takedown offense (75% accuracy) and persistent forward pressure
  • Seeking redemption after split-decision losses in his last two outings

As the betting markets suggest, Kopylov enters with a clear edge—his recent rise, coupled with a well-rounded skill set, has sportsbooks leaning heavily in his favor. However, Costa’s knockout prowess and relentless aggression ensure this won’t be a straightforward walkover. Expect high-octane striking exchanges, with both men looking to land their devastating power shots early.

In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s key strengths and weaknesses, analyze their head-to-head matchup potential, and provide strategic betting insights to help you make the most informed picks for this captivating Middleweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa Profile

Background & Style

• Age: 34
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Height: 6'1" (73"), Reach: 72"/39.5" (arm/leg)
• UFC Debut: March 12, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jun. 1, 2024 – Loss vs Sean Strickland (Decision – Split)
2. Feb. 17, 2024 – Loss vs Robert Whittaker (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Aug. 20, 2022 – Win vs Ruku Rotsukuhoruto (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Oct. 23, 2021 – Loss vs Marvin Vettori (Decision – Unanimous)
5. Sep. 26, 2020 – Loss vs Israel Adesanya (KO/TKO, R2)

Costa’s recent record (1–4) belies the sheer power and finishing ability that made him a feared title contender. His lone victory in this span came by unanimous decision, as opponents began adapting to his aggressive style and timing.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 11 KOs in 14 UFC wins, with 9 first-round finishes.
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 58% of significant strikes.
• Takedown Offense: Converts 75% of attempts, able to mix in level changes and keep opponents guessing.
• Durability & Heart: Willing to press forward under pressure, often dictating pace early.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Concedes 51% of opponent’s significant strikes, leaving him open in exchanges.
• Cardio Under Duress: Tends to slow after first stanza, which opponents have exploited in later rounds.
• Vulnerability to Elite Wrestlers: While his takedown offense is strong, his 80% takedown defense can be tested by high-level grapplers.
• Decision Outcomes: Only 1 decision win in his last 5 outings; prolonged fights haven’t favored his style.

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Roman Kopylov Profile

Background & Style

• Age: 33
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: Power Striker / Well-Rounded Finisher
• Height: 6'0" (72"), Reach: 75"/41" (arm/leg)
• UFC Debut: November 9, 2019

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Jan. 11, 2025 – Win vs Chris Curtis (KO/TKO, R3)
2. Jun. 1, 2024 – Win vs Cesar Almeida (Split Decision)
3. Feb. 17, 2024 – Loss vs Anthony Hernandez (Submission, R2)
4. Sep. 16, 2023 – Win vs Josh Fremd (KO/TKO, R2)
5. Jul. 29, 2023 – Win vs Claudio Ribeiro (KO/TKO, R2)

Kopylov has rattled off four wins in his last five, showcasing his knack for finishes and resilience after a submission loss in early 2024.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: 12 of 14 wins by KO/TKO.
• Takedown Defense: Staunch 87% success rate defending takedowns, forcing stand-up battles.
• Balanced Striking: Hits at 51% clip and defends 55% of incoming strikes, allowing him to counter effectively.
• Fight IQ & Adaptability: Has shown ability to adjust mid-fight—evident in split-decision victory over Almeida and composed KO of Curtis.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: Only 42% accuracy on takedown attempts, limits his grappling threat.
• Submission Defense: One submission loss suggests vulnerability on the mat if taken down cleanly.
• Average Fight Time: Rounds average 11:21, indicating potential pacing issues in longer scrambles.
• Experience Against Top-10 Opponents: Lacks marquee victories over elite middleweights, which may test his confidence in the championship picture.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Striking vs. Striker: Both men favor stand-up exchanges, but Costa’s higher accuracy (58% vs. 51%) and three-inch height advantage could tip early battles in his favor.
• Grappling Edge: Costa’s takedown offense (75%) vs. Kopylov’s takedown defense (87%). If Costa can mix levels and bully Kopylov to the mat, he forces the Russian to fight off his back.
• Power & Durability: Both fighters boast high KO ratios. Expect heavy leather from the opening bell—whoever lands first may seize momentum.
• Cardio & Endurance: Costa’s gas tank has faded in recent deep waters, whereas Kopylov’s ability to settle into mid rounds suggests he might finish stronger in later frames.

This Middleweight matchup is a classic striker’s duel with pivotal grappling nuances. While Costa brings explosive power and wrestling confidence, Kopylov counters with veteran savvy, resilient defense, and his own finishing acumen. The contrast of their skill sets sets the stage for a compelling tactical war—and plenty of FOTN potential at UFC 317.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

Heading into UFC 317, Roman Kopylov is firmly established as the favorite, with moneyline odds ranging from –240 (BetRivers) to –295 (FanDuel). On the other side, Paulo Costa wears the underdog tag, priced between +180 (BetRivers) and +220 (FanDuel). This gap of more than 400 points underscores the market’s confidence in Kopylov’s well-rounded skill set and recent form, while casting Costa as the dangerous long shot seeking redemption.

| Fighter | BetRivers | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetOnline.ag | |-------------------|-----------|------------|----------|--------------| | Roman Kopylov | –240 | –258 | –295 | –250 | | Paulo Costa | +180 | +210 | +220 | +210 |

• Favorite: Roman Kopylov (–240 to –295)
• Underdog: Paulo Costa (+180 to +220)

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history reveals several notable swings:

• Roman Kopylov:

  • Opened at –215 on BetRivers (June 9) before drifting to –240 (May 31).
  • On DraftKings, Kopylov moved from –230 up to –258, dipped to –238, and has since stabilized around –250.
  • BetOnline.ag mirrored this pattern: –210 → –235 → –255.

• Paulo Costa:

  • Initially listed at +165 (BetRivers, June 9), then slipped to +180 by June 17.
  • DraftKings saw Costa climb from +190 to +210, briefly drift to +195, and bounce back to +205.
  • BetOnline.ag showed a similar trend: +180 → +200 → +215.

These movements suggest early sharp money on Kopylov, driving his line more negative, while Costa’s odds have softened as action accumulated on the Brazilian underdog.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Roman Kopylov: BetRivers offers the shortest negative line at –240, meaning every dollar risked yields more profit than at –258 or –295.
• For Paulo Costa: FanDuel pays the most generous underdog return at +220, maximizing profit if “Borrachinha” pulls off the upset.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probability

If you risk $1,000 on either fighter:

• Betting on Kopylov (–240 at BetRivers):

  • Your total payout would be $1,416 (includes your $1,000 stake).
  • The implied chance of victory sits around 70–75%.

• Betting on Costa (+220 at FanDuel):

  • A successful bet returns $3,200 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,200 profit).
  • The implied probability for Costa to win is roughly 30%.

These figures illustrate the trade-off between backing the chalk at a lower payout versus chasing the bigger payday on the underdog. With Kopylov’s line tightening over time, early bettors locked in stronger value. Meanwhile, those convinced Costa can rekindle his power and wrestling mix can capitalize on the inflated +220 odds.

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Whether you side with the surging Russian or back the comeback story of Brazil’s knockout artist, understanding these line movements and payout structures is crucial. In the final stretch before fight night, keep an eye on any late shifts—sharp money or insider leaks could nudge the odds again before the cages close at T-Mobile Arena.