Winner: Jack Hermansson
Confidence Score: 65Jack Hermansson has a significant edge in experience and durability at the UFC level, as well as a more well-rounded MMA game. He holds a better significant strike defense (56% vs. 51%) and a higher takedown defense (81% vs. 89% for Rodrigues, but Hermansson has faced stronger wrestlers historically). Hermansson's 11:33 average fight time suggests he is more comfortable in longer, grinding bouts, whereas Rodrigues has been finished by KO/TKO in both of his recent losses, exposing a potential vulnerability to Hermansson's pace and ground-and-pound. Rodrigues is a dangerous finisher early, but Hermansson's experience, reach, and ability to mix striking and grappling should allow him to weather early storms and take over as the fight progresses. Historically, fighters with Hermansson's profile (older, longer reach, high-level experience, and MMA style) have a slight edge in similar middleweight matchups, especially against aggressive but hittable brawlers like Rodrigues. Recent form is a concern for both, but Hermansson's style and resume give him the edge in a competitive but winnable fight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.