Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault UFC Betting Analysis

Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault Fight Analysis

Introduction

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder’s Middleweight main card brings us a high-stakes clash on July 26, 2025, live from the state-of-the-art Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Scheduled to kick off at 7:00 PM UTC (11:00 PM local time), the bout between Shara Magomedov and Marc-Andre Barriault promises fireworks for fight fans and sharp-eyed bettors alike. With both athletes boasting heavy hands and contrasting styles, this showdown has already captured the attention of the MMA world—and the sports books.

Fight Details at a Glance

• Date & Time: July 26, 2025 • 19:00 UTC (23:00 Abu Dhabi)
• Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
• Division: Middleweight (185 lb)
• Card Placement: Main Card, prelims to precede Whittaker vs de Ridder

Odds and Betting Outlook

As the fight approaches, Shara Magomedov enters as the clear favorite, commanding odds around –500 across top bookmakers (Caesars: –480; FanDuel: –520; BetMGM: –500). Her impressive 15-1-0 UFC record, coupled with a 12-KO résumé and 62% significant strike accuracy, positions her as a formidable force in the division.

On the other side is Marc-Andre Barriault, the resilient Canadian striker who’s pegged as the underdog at roughly +360 (FanDuel: +350; BetMGM: +375; DraftKings: +370). With a 17-9-0 pro record and an 11-KO highlight reel, Barriault is no stranger to proving odds-makers wrong—most recently earning a first-round TKO over Bruno Silva in May 2025.

Why This Fight Matters

• Contrast in Styles: Magomedov’s precision striking and defensive footwork versus Barriault’s power-punching aggression and underdog grit.
• Tactical Implications: Can Magomedov impose her jab-heavy approach and clinch control, or will Barriault’s patented pressure and counter-fire create early chaos?
• Betting Angles: Despite the lopsided line, value seekers may find compelling odds on Barriault’s live-money prop potential, especially given his penchant for first-round finishes (7 total).

As the global MMA community tunes in to the desert capital, this Middleweight bout is poised to deliver a dynamic chapter in both men’s UFC journeys. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down their recent performances, statistical matchups, and strategic keys to victory—as well as identify the most lucrative betting opportunities ahead of fight night. Whether you’re backing the chalk in Magomedov or hunting a payout on Barriault’s upset, our comprehensive fight breakdown will equip you with the insights you need to make informed wagers and savor every moment of this electrifying headliner.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Shara Magomedov

Background

Age: 30
Country: Republic of Dagestan, Russia
Height / Reach: 74 in / 73 in
Fighting Style: Aggressive striker with heavy hands and crisp combinations
UFC Debut: Oct. 21, 2023

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Feb. 1, 2025 – Loss vs Michael Page (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Oct. 26, 2024 – Win vs Armen Petrosyan (KO/TKO, R2 @ 4:52)
3. Aug. 3, 2024 – Win vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Jun. 22, 2024 – Win vs Antonio Trocoli (KO/TKO, R3 @ 2:27)
5. Oct. 21, 2023 – Win vs Bruno Silva Blindado (Decision – Unanimous)

Magomedov stormed into the UFC with four straight victories, showcasing a lethal striking arsenal. Her lone defeat came at the hands of Michael Page, where she struggled to close distance against a rangy, evasive opponent.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (62%): Lands nearly two out of every three significant strikes attempted, among the best in the division.
• Finishing Power: 12 of 15 career wins by KO/TKO, with 7 first-round finishes.
• Takedown Defense (73%): Rarely compromised on the mat, forcing opponents to stand and trade.

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense (43%): Allows over half of incoming significant strikes, leaving her vulnerable to counter-punchers like Barriault.
• Grappling Offense (0%): Has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC; limited ground game could be exploited if pressured.

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Marc-Andre Barriault

Background

Age: 35
Country: Gatineau, Canada
Height / Reach: 73 in / 74 in
Fighting Style: Power striker with heavy hands and relentless forward pressure
UFC Debut: Jul. 11, 2025

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. May 10, 2025 – Win vs Bruno Silva Blindado (KO/TKO, R1 @ 1:27)
2. Nov. 2, 2024 – Loss vs Dustin Stoltzfus (KO/TKO, R1 @ 4:28)
3. Jun. 29, 2024 – Loss vs Joe Pyfer (KO/TKO, R1 @ 1:25)
4. Jan. 20, 2024 – Loss vs Chris Curtis (Decision – Split)
5. Jun. 10, 2023 – Win vs Eryk Anders (Decision – Unanimous)

Barriault’s roller-coaster UFC tenure features highlight–reel knockouts and sudden setbacks. His most recent outing saw him dispatch Bruno Silva in under ninety seconds, a stark reminder of his one-punch ceiling.

Strengths

• Heavy Hands: 11 KOs on his ledger and 7 first-round finishes make him dangerous from the opening bell.
• Striking Defense (52%): Above-average at avoiding or mitigating incoming blows compared to Magomedov’s 43%.
• Finishing Urgency: Average fight time of 9:44 indicates he hunts the finish early.

Weaknesses

• Strike Accuracy (48%): Largely below division average, leading to missed power shots and potential counters.
• Takedown Defense (68%) & Offense (25%): Moderate grappling metrics mean he can both give up and fail to secure takedowns.
• Durability Questions: Three first-round KO losses in his last five outings highlight risk when tangled early.

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Head-to-Head Profile Comparison

• Experience vs. Youth: Barriault brings veteran savvy at 35; Magomedov is a rising 30-year-old talent.
• Precision vs. Power: Magomedov’s surgical striking contrasts with Barriault’s one-punch KO threat.
• Stand-up Battle: Neither fighter will likely grapple; the bout pivots on striking volume, timing, and defense.

This clash pits Magomedov’s technical superiority and finishing consistency against Barriault’s raw power and upset potential. In the sections ahead, we’ll delve deeper into striking exchanges, distance management, and the key trends that could swing this Middleweight showdown.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, Shara Magomedov is installed as the clear favorite, while Marc-Andre Barriault carries underdog status across all major sportsbooks:

• Favorite (Magomedov)
  • Caesars: –480
  • FanDuel: –520
  • BetMGM: –500
  • DraftKings: –485
  • BetRivers: –455
  • BetOnline.ag: –465

• Underdog (Barriault)
  • Caesars: +360
  • FanDuel: +350
  • BetMGM: +375
  • DraftKings: +370
  • BetRivers: +330
  • BetOnline.ag: +365

The gap between the chalk and the dog is substantial—roughly –500 versus +360, reflecting the market’s strong confidence in Magomedov’s finishing power and technical edge. For bettors seeking the most favorable lines, BetRivers (–455) offers the best payout on the favorite, while BetMGM (+375) provides the juiciest return on the underdog.

Odds History and Line Movement

A look at how these lines have shifted over the past month shows heavy action moving toward Magomedov:

• Magomedov opened near –310 (FanDuel, June 26) and steadily dipped to –400 by July 8 (BetRivers), before landing in the mid-400s to low-500s range on July 14.
• Barriault began around +230 (FanDuel, June 26), climbed to +285 by July 5, and now sits between +330 and +375.

The largest swing occurred between July 5 and July 14, when the favorite line moved nearly 120 points (from –400 to –520) and the underdog line expanded by roughly 90 points (from +285 to +375). This dramatic shift signals a flood of early money on Magomedov, likely driven by sharp bettors reacting to her superior striking metrics and recent form.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at today’s best available lines, here’s what you’d stand to collect:

• Shara Magomedov at –455 (BetRivers)
  • Profit: ~$220
  • Total Return: ~$1,220
  • Implied Win Probability: ~82%

• Marc-Andre Barriault at +375 (BetMGM)
  • Profit: $3,750
  • Total Return: $4,750
  • Implied Win Probability: ~21%

Despite Magomedov’s heavy favorite status and high implied win percentage, Barriault’s explosive power and capacity for sudden finishes make his +375 line tempting for risk-seeking bettors. For those prioritizing value, consider siding with Barriault at BetMGM’s enhanced odds; for a more conservative play, Magomedov at BetRivers delivers the strongest downside protection.

In the next section, we’ll explore the key betting props and live-wager strategies that could further tilt the scales in your favor. Whether chasing the underdog upset or locking in the favorite’s edge, understanding these line movements—and the sportsbooks offering the best odds—will be crucial to maximizing your return on fight night.