Naimov vs Grad: UFC Betting Odds & Fight Analysis

Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad fight breakdown

Introduction

The featherweight showdown between Muhammadjon Naimov and Bogdan Grad is set to light up the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr. on Saturday, June 21, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC. Hosted at the iconic Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, this clash marks a pivotal moment for both athletes as they look to extend their winning streaks and stake their claim in one of the promotion’s most talent-dense divisions.

At -220 on the American odds board, Muhammadjon Naimov arrives as the clear favorite. The 30-year-old Tajikistan native owns a professional record of 12–3–0, with six of his victories coming by way of knockout and two by submission. A veteran of high-paced striking exchanges and scrappy clinch battles, Naimov has demonstrated a well-rounded game since his UFC debut in June 2023. His average fight time sits at 10:50 minutes, and he boasts a 42% significant strike accuracy and 44% defense rate. Though his takedown defense (67%) has been tested—most notably in his June 2024 loss to submission specialist Felipe Lima—Naimov’s durability and relentless forward pressure have kept him firmly in the promotion’s featherweight mix.

On the opposite side, Bogdan Grad steps into the octagon as the underdog at +180, looking to upset the established order. The 29-year-old Austrian-Romanian fighter holds a stellar 15–2–0 professional mark, with an impressive eight first-round finishes and nine knockouts on his resume. Grad’s striking pedigree—rooted in karate—and flawless takedown defense (100%) have made him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the 145-pound division. Having debuted in the UFC this past February, Grad quickly showcased his power and precision, despite suffering a unanimous decision loss to Lucas Alexander. With a 53% striking accuracy and 47% defense rate, he possesses the tools to control range and punish mistakes.

This matchup not only pits contrasting fighting styles—Naimov’s grind-and-grapple approach versus Grad’s lightning-fast karate—against each other, but also presents a stylistic litmus test for the division. Will Naimov’s pressure and wrestling acumen negate Grad’s striking angles and explosive finishing ability? Or will Grad’s pinpoint technique and takedown invincibility carve a path to victory against a more heavily favored foe?

As the fighters prepare to make history in Baku, bettors and fans alike will be poring over the odds, analy­zing each athlete’s strengths and seeking that crucial edge. Whether you’re backing the hometown hero in Uzbekistan’s favorite son or banking on the Austrian rookie to pull off a shocker, this fight promises fireworks and could very well reshape the featherweight hierarchy by the time the final horn sounds.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Muhammadjon Naimov

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Tajikistan
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA (striking & grappling)
• Physicals: 69″ height, 70″ reach, 145.5 lb

Muhammadjon Naimov burst onto the UFC scene in June 2023 and has since developed a reputation for pressure-heavy striking and solid wrestling. Born in Tajikistan, he combines power punching with a grind-and-control approach in the clinch.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs. Kaan Ofli (Unanimous Decision) – Feb. 2025
2. Loss vs. Felipe Lima (Submission, R3 1:15) – Jun. 2024
3. Win vs. Erik Silva (KO/TKO, R1 0:44) – Feb. 2024
4. Win vs. Nathaniel Wood (Unanimous Decision) – Oct. 2023
5. Win vs. Jamie Mullarkey (KO/TKO, R2 2:59) – Jun. 2023

Naimov is 4-1 over his last five, showing he can both finish opponents early and grind out decisions.

Strengths

• Pressure & Cardio: Carries fights into deep waters—average fight time 10:50, longest in his UFC cluster—allowing him to outlast many opponents.
• Durability: Has only been stopped once (vs. Lima), showcasing a granite chin and ability to absorb strikes.
• Striking Volume: Throws heavy output from all ranges; lands 42% of significant strikes and defends 44% incoming.
• Wrestling Base: Solid takedown defense at 67%, capable of dictating where the fight takes place.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: Only 36% accuracy on takedown attempts, limiting his ability to impose top control consistently.
• Striking Efficiency: A 42% accuracy rate indicates he can be out-landed by precise strikers at distance.
• Submission Defense: Late-round fatigue has occasionally led to lapses—most notably the R3 submission loss to Lima.

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Bogdan Grad

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Austria (Romanian-born)
• Fighting Style: Traditional Karate base with heavy power striking
• Physicals: 68″ height, 70″ reach, 145.5 lb

Bogdan Grad is a striking specialist who blends karate footwork with explosive punching power. He made his UFC debut in February 2025 and quickly caught attention with his knockout résumé.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Loss vs. Lucas Alexander (Unanimous Decision) – Feb. 2025
2. Win vs. [Regional Opponent] (KO/TKO, R1) – 2024
3. Win vs. [Regional Opponent] (Submission, R2) – 2023

Overall he stands 15-2, boasting nine knockouts, three submissions, and eight first-round finishes.

Strengths

• Striking Precision: Lands 53% of his significant strikes—among the elite in featherweight striking efficiency.
• Power & Finishing: With nine KOs and three subs, Grad has proven he can end fights quickly; his average fight lasts just 8:35.
• Takedown Defense: A perfect 100% takedown defense rate ensures opponents cannot easily force grappling exchanges.
• Footwork & Angles: Karate background gives him lateral movement that creates openings for counters and head kicks.

Weaknesses

• Durability Under Pressure: Only 47% strike defense suggests he can be out-struck by high-volume attackers.
• Cardio Concerns: Short average fight time hints at potential gas tank issues in later rounds.
• Limited UFC Experience: The unanimous decision loss in his debut exposed a need to adapt to five-minute rounds and seasoned opponents.

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Matchup Implications:
Naimov’s grinding pace and wrestling will be the ultimate test for Grad’s early-fight sharpness and power. Conversely, Grad’s karate movement and knock-out power force Naimov to respect distance or risk an early finish. This stylistic duel—pressure versus precision—will decide whose strengths can neutralize the other’s key assets.

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

As fight night approaches, the betting market has firmly installed Muhammadjon Naimov as the favorite and Bogdan Grad as the underdog. Here are the latest head-to-head American odds:

• Muhammadjon Naimov:
  • Caesars: –220
  • BetOnline.ag: –220

• Bogdan Grad:
  • Caesars: +180
  • BetOnline.ag: +185

The gap between the favorite and underdog sits at roughly 400 points on the American scale, signaling strong confidence in Naimov’s all-around game. Grad, despite his explosive finishing ability and perfect takedown defense, remains a sizable underdog in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals significant early swings as bettors have weighed each man’s strengths:

Bogdan Grad (BetOnline.ag)

• Jun. 5, 20:20 — +182
• Jun. 5, 22:30 — +209 (sharp uptick toward a bigger underdog line)
• Jun. 5, 23:50 — +184
• Jun. 7, 12:20 — +165 (strong backing, line moving in Grad’s favor)
• Jun. 8, 06:10 — +166
• Jun. 8, 13:49 — +170
• Jun. 9, 08:10 — +185 (current)

Muhammadjon Naimov (BetOnline.ag)

• Jun. 5, 20:20 — –212
• Jun. 5, 22:30 — –244 (early sharp money on the favorite)
• Jun. 5, 23:50 — –214
• Jun. 7, 12:20 — –190 (public re-investment on Grad softens the line)
• Jun. 8, 06:10 — –191
• Jun. 8, 13:49 — –200
• Jun. 9, 08:10 — –220 (current)

Key takeaways:

• Grad’s line spiked to +209 before heavy action trimmed it to under +170, only to drift back up as books balanced exposure.
• Naimov’s line stretched out to –244 on early sharp bets, then cooled off to –190 as money rolled in on the underdog, ultimately settling at –220.

Best Sportsbooks to Bet On

• Best Odds on the Favorite: Caesars and BetOnline.ag both offer –220 on Naimov, making either a solid choice for backers of the Tajikistan striker.
• Best Odds on the Underdog: BetOnline.ag leads the pack at +185 for Grad, a slight edge over Caesars’ +180. For the price boost, BetOnline.ag is our recommended sportsbook to bet the underdog.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 riding on either man, here’s what your return would look like:

• Bet $1,000 on Grad at +185:
  • Payout: $2,850 (your $1,000 stake + $1,850 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~35%

• Bet $1,000 on Naimov at –220:
  • Payout: $1,455 (your $1,000 stake + $455 profit)
  • Implied Probability: ~68%

Despite the divergent payouts, both fighters present compelling cases. Grad’s higher payout compensates for his perceived lower chance of victory, while Naimov’s shorter odds reflect his consistency and well-rounded skill set. Whatever side you choose, understanding these odds and line movements is key to making an informed wager.