Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen: Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen fight analysis

Fight Overview

Get ready for an explosive Middleweight showdown as Marvin Vettori and Brendan Allen lock horns on the Preliminary Card of UFC 318 at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. This pivotal bout is slated to kick off on Sunday, July 20, 2025, with the fighters expected to hit the Octagon at approximately 2:00 AM ET. Both competitors sit near the top of the division: Vettori is ranked #10 and Allen holds the #11 spot, making this clash a true crossroads battle with significant implications for a future title push.

Vettori, the Italian warrior known for his relentless pace and cardio, brings a 19-8-1 professional record into this contest. A veteran of big-time wars—most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Roman Dolidze in March—Marvin prides himself on suffocating pressure and top-level takedown defense. His stats speak volumes: a 70% takedown defense, 57% significant strike defense, and a career average fight time of 17:25. At 31 years old, “The Italian Dream” combines seasoned ringcraft with world-class durability, making him a formidable underdog against anyone in the Top 15.

On the other side stands Brendan Allen, a 29-year-old American submission specialist who has amassed a glowing 24-7-0 record since debuting in 2019. Boasting 14 submission victories—including stunning first-round finishes—Allen is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division. His key metrics include a 38% takedown accuracy, 46% significant strike defense, and an average fight duration of just 10:22, thanks largely to his ability to end fights early. Despite back-to-back decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov, Allen remains a heavy favorite due to his dynamic ground game and evolving stand-up.

Betting Odds Snapshot

Oddsmakers have made Allen the clear favorite, with his moneyline ranging from -265 (FanDuel) to -298 (DraftKings). In contrast, Vettori is the underdog, trading anywhere between +200 (FanDuel) and +240 (DraftKings). Those odds reflect the market’s faith in Allen’s finishing prowess and younger age advantage, while recognizing Vettori’s gritty resilience and championship-caliber experience.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a fight-night enthusiast, this matchup offers compelling storylines: Can Vettori weather Allen’s submission onslaught and drag this fight into deep waters? Or will Allen continue his ascent by breaking through a top-10 opponent and staking his claim as a title contender? Tune in on July 20 to find out.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup Preview and Fighter Profiles

Brendan Allen Profile

Age & Background

• Age: 29
• Hometown: Beaufort, United States
• Fighting Style: MMA with a heavy emphasis on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
• UFC Record: 24-7-0

Recent Form

1. Loss vs Anthony Hernandez (Unanimous Decision) – Feb. 2025
2. Loss vs Nassourdine Imavov (Unanimous Decision) – Sept. 2024
3. Win vs Chris Curtis (Split Decision) – Apr. 2024
4. Win vs Paul Craig (Submission, R3 0:38) – Nov. 2023
5. Win vs Bruno Silva Blindado (Submission, R1 4:39) – June 2023

Allen has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, all by his hallmark submission prowess or narrow decisions. Two recent unanimous decision losses suggest vulnerability against elite strikers and wrestlers who can neutralize his ground attack.

Strengths

• Submission Specialist: 14 of 24 wins by submission, showcasing elite grappling transitions and late-round attacks.
• First-Round Finisher: 11 pro fights ended in Round 1, reflecting explosive offense early.
• Striking Accuracy: 54% significant strike accuracy, above division average, indicating clean, effective stand-up.
• Average Fight Time: 10:22, the shortest of both fighters, underscoring his aggressiveness.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense: 46%, suggesting he absorbs a high volume of clean shots when pressured.
• Takedown Defense: 57%, lower than division elite; vulnerable if opponent chains strikes and takedowns.
• Cardio in Deep Waters: Lower average fight time may point to fading late; has yet to prove five-round gas tank.

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Marvin Vettori Profile

Age & Background

• Age: 31
• Hometown: Trento, Italy
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA blending wrestling, Muay Thai, and relentless pressure
• UFC Record: 19-8-1

Recent Form

1. Loss vs Roman Dolidze (Unanimous Decision) – Mar. 2025
2. Loss vs Jared Cannonier (Unanimous Decision) – June 2023
3. Win vs Roman Dolidze (Unanimous Decision) – Mar. 2023
4. Loss vs Robert Whittaker (Unanimous Decision) – Sept. 2022
5. Win vs Paulo Costa (Unanimous Decision) – Oct. 2021

Vettori has alternated wins and losses against top-15 opponents, demonstrating elite durability but inconsistency against high-caliber strikers and southpaw power.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense: 70%, one of the best in the division, able to shrug off takedown attempts and keep fights standing on his terms.
• Significant Strike Defense: 57%, absorbing fewer strikes than most middleweights, leveraging head movement and footwork.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight time of 17:25 and no stoppage losses in UFC, thrives in deep rounds and five-round wars.
• Experience: Debuted in 2016, five-round veteran with championship-caliber conditioning and fight IQ.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: Only 2 knockout wins in 19 victories; lacking one-punch power to deter aggressive opponents.
• Striking Accuracy: 46%, trailing Allen, may struggle to land meaningful counters against high-volume strikers.
• Submission Offense: While possessing 9 submissions, he is less explosive off his back compared to Allen’s relentless grappling.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This bout will pit Allen’s submission arsenal and striking efficiency against Vettori’s elite takedown defense and cardio. Allen must pressure Vettori early, mix level changes, and avoid deep waters where Vettori’s endurance and top-tier defense shine. Conversely, Vettori will look to frustrate Allen’s grappling with sprawls, clinch striking, and drag the fight into championship rounds. The outcome hinges on whether Allen can secure early takedowns or finish on the feet before Vettori’s gas tank advantage emerges.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

Heading into UFC 318’s preliminary card, Brendan Allen is the clear favorite across major sportsbooks, while Marvin Vettori slots in as the underdog. Here’s a look at the current moneylines:

• Brendan Allen (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: -265
  • Caesars: -290
  • DraftKings: -298
  • BetOnline.ag: -270
  • BetRivers: -278

• Marvin Vettori (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +200
  • Caesars: +235
  • DraftKings: +240
  • BetOnline.ag: +230
  • BetRivers: +210

The gap between Allen’s most generous line (-265 at FanDuel) and Vettori’s best price (+240 at DraftKings) underscores where the market’s confidence lies. If you’re backing the underdog, DraftKings currently offers the juiciest payday; for the favorite, FanDuel presents the highest profit potential.

Line Movement Analysis

A look at the odds history reveals some noteworthy swings in the weeks leading up to fight night:

• Brendan Allen

  • BetOnline.ag shifted from -260 (Jun. 29) to -290 (Jul. 1), before settling around -280 (Jul. 6).
  • Caesars mirrored this move, opening around -290 (Jul. 7).
  • DraftKings slid further to -298 by Jul. 7, indicating heavy action on Allen.

• Marvin Vettori

  • BetOnline.ag opened at +220 (Jun. 29) then ticked up to +250 (Jul. 1), ultimately resting at +240 (Jul. 6).
  • Caesars moved from +235 (Jul. 7) consistent with moderate backing.
  • BetRivers holds firm at +210 since Jul. 2, suggesting less volatility on Vettori bets.

These swings show Allen’s line drifting downward—a sign of increased money or sharp interest on the favorite—while Vettori briefly saw better value (+250) before bookmakers adjusted.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Odds

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Backing Brendan Allen at -265 (FanDuel):

  • Return: $1,377 (including your $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Probability: ~73%

• Backing Marvin Vettori at +240 (DraftKings):

  • Return: $3,400 (including your $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Probability: ~29%

Those figures illustrate how the market heavily favors Allen. Yet, if you believe “The Italian Dream” can defy the odds—especially with his elite cardio and takedown defense—locking in +240 at DraftKings offers the most attractive underdog payout. Conversely, for a tighter margin on the favorite, FanDuel’s -265 provides the best bang per buck.

Whether you lean into Allen’s finishing upside or Vettori’s championship-caliber experience, understanding these odds and their movement is crucial to finding value before the first bell rings.