UFC Lewis vs Teixeira: Odds, Analysis & Betting Picks

Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, July 12, 2025, fight fans around the world will tune in for a heavyweight showdown at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The clash between veteran knockout artist Derrick Lewis and undefeated Brazilian phenom Tallison Teixeira headlines the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira, with the action slated to begin at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT, 7:00 PM CT). As part of a stacked event, this non-title bout carries significant implications for both men’s standings in the increasingly competitive UFC Heavyweight division.

The Contenders

• Tallison Teixeira (Blue Corner)
  • Age: 25 (Born in Vitória da Conquista, Brazil)
  • UFC Record: 8-0-0, with an astounding 100% finish rate (7 KOs, 1 submission)
  • Ranked #13 in the Heavyweight division
  • UFC Debut: February 8, 2025
  • Fighting Style: Striker – 60% significant strike accuracy, 60% defense, zero takedown attempts

• Derrick Lewis (Red Corner)
  • Age: 40 (Born in New Orleans, United States)
  • UFC Record: 28-12-0, including 23 knockouts
  • Ranked #9 in the Heavyweight division
  • UFC Debut: April 19, 2014
  • Fighting Style: Brawler – 51% significant strike accuracy, 41% defense, 26% takedown accuracy

Betting Odds and Favorites

All major sportsbooks agree that Tallison Teixeira is the clear favorite, carrying an average market line of around -220 (American odds). His explosive striking prowess, combined with an undefeated professional resume and sub-two-minute average fight time (01:16), has oddsmakers projecting a third straight highlight-reel finish. On the other side, Derrick Lewis enters as the underdog at approximately +170. Despite being one of the most feared punchers in UFC history, Lewis has dipped in form over the past few years, suffering key losses to top contenders and showing signs of a slowing gas tank.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup isn’t just a battle for pride—it’s a crossroads moment for both fighters. A win for Teixeira would cement his status as a future title challenger, while a victory for Lewis would revive his veteran knockout legacy and potentially secure him a high-profile bout later this year. With striking-focused styles on display, expect an all-out war where one well-placed punch could end the night in dramatic fashion.

As the fighters step into the Octagon at UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira, bettors and fans alike will be watching every gauge, feint, and strike, analyzing how experience, power, and precision collide in one of the most anticipated heavyweight clashes of 2025.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira: Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Tallison Teixeira – The Undefeated Brazilian Striker

Background

• Age: 25
• Country: Brazil (Vitória da Conquista)
• Fighting Style: Pure Striker
• UFC Record: 1-0 (8-0-0 overall, 7 KOs, 1 submission)
• UFC Debut: Feb. 8, 2025 (KO win over Justin Tafa in just 35 seconds)

Recent Form

• Teixeira has steamrolled through his first eight professional bouts in explosive fashion, averaging just 1:16 per fight.
• In his lone UFC appearance, he blasted out Justin Tafa via first-round TKO at UFC Fight Night 216.
• Across his last five wins (all finishes), he has showcased both precision and power—four by knockout and one by submission.

Strengths

• Finishing Prowess: Boasts a perfect 100% finish rate, with seven knockouts and one submission across eight fights.
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 60% of his significant strikes and defends 60% of what he faces.
• Reach & Height: Standing 6’7” with an 83” arm reach, he can pepper opponents from range.
• Quick Starts: Every fight ends before the second round; he’s at his best in the opening minute.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience: Only one UFC outing under his belt; could be tested by veteran savvy.
• Zero Grappling: 0% takedown accuracy and defense—has never attempted nor defended a takedown in the Octagon.
• Cardio Question Mark: Rarely taxed beyond 90 seconds; unproven if the fight goes deep.

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Derrick Lewis – The Veteran Brawler

Background

• Age: 40
• Country: United States (New Orleans)
• Fighting Style: Brawler / Knockout Artist
• UFC Record: 28-12-0 (23 KOs)
• UFC Debut: Apr. 19, 2014

Recent Form

• Last 5 Bouts:
  1. Win vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (KO, R3 – UFC 300)
  2. Loss vs. Jailton Almeida (Unanimous Decision, 5 rounds)
  3. Win vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (KO, 0:33 R1)
  4. Loss vs. Serghei Spivac (Submission, R1 – kneebar)
  5. Loss vs. Sergei Pavlovich (KO, 0:55 R1)
• Two first-round knockouts and one third-round blast, but three defeats in five outings signal an up-and-down trajectory.

Strengths

• Raw Power: Carries 23 career knockouts; one punch can—and often has—ended fights instantly.
• Experience: Over a decade in the UFC against top heavyweights; high fight IQ in late-round scenarios.
• Takedown Defense: Defends 53% of takedown attempts, allowing him to keep the fight standing where he thrives.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense: Absorbs a significant 59% of opponents’ strikes, per a 41% defense rate. Vulnerable to volume strikers.
• Cardio & Durability: Average fight length of 9:09; gas tank fades in championship-round pace.
• Inconsistent Wrestling Offense: Only 26% takedown accuracy; lacks a reliable second-dimension to break elite strikers.

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In this clash, Teixeira’s youth, precision striking, and unblemished record will collide with Lewis’s veteran toughness, devastating power, and ring-tested savvy. Teixeira must press early to avoid a late-round nightmare, while Lewis needs to weather the storm, land one huge shot, and drag this fight into deeper waters where his experience could pay dividends.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

• Tallison Teixeira (Favorite): –220 (American odds)
• Derrick Lewis (Underdog): +170

Across major sportsbooks, Teixeira sits firmly as the moneyline favorite, with most books offering him between –210 and –225. Conversely, Lewis is the underdog at +170 to +182, giving bettors ample incentive to back the veteran in search of a big payout.

Best Books for Value:

• Favorite (Teixeira): Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings all list him at –210, the shallowest price on the favorite.
• Underdog (Lewis): BetUS currently posts the highest line at +182, maximizing profit potential on Lewis.

Line Movement & Swings

• Tallison Teixeira:
  • Opened as high as –250 at Caesars on June 19
  • Sharply moved to –205 by June 29, then ticked back to –210 as of June 30
  • FanDuel and BetRivers have stayed steadier, ranging between –220 to –225

• Derrick Lewis:
  • Began around +185 on June 19 (Caesars, BetOnline)
  • Drifted down to +150 on some BetOnline markets by June 25
  • Rebounded to +170 – +180 across most outlets entering fight week

These swings indicate early heavy action on Teixeira, pushing lines toward the favorite before some counter-money emerged on Lewis late in the week. Sharp bettors may have recognized value on the veteran once his line dipped into the mid-+150s.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 to wager:

• Bet on Teixeira at –220:
  • Payout: ~$1,454 total return ($454 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Chance: ~69% win probability
• Bet on Lewis at +170:
  • Payout: ~$2,700 total return ($1,700 profit + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Chance: ~37% win probability

What This Means for Bettors

• Teixeira’s Fading Line: The drop from –250 to –205 suggests some skepticism around his inexperience. If you believe in his power and precision, grabbing –210 at BetMGM or DraftKings is a solid play.
• Lewis Value Spot: The veteran’s line collapse into the +150s before bouncing back shows respect for his one-punch knockout threat. A late surge to +182 at BetUS offers the highest upside if you expect Lewis to land early or drag the fight into deeper waters.

With Teixeira as the clear favorite and Lewis as the powerful underdog, the current market reflects both fighters’ contrasting profiles: youth, precision, and a perfect finish rate versus veteran grit, one-punch power, and championship-round savvy. Choose your side, shop odds at the best sportsbook, and enjoy the action at Bridgestone Arena on July 12.