Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari | UFC 318 Odds & Pick

Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari Fight Analysis

Event Details

On Saturday, July 19, 2025, rising star Carli Judice will square off against Brazilian challenger Nicolle Caliari on the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3. Fight time is scheduled for 10:15 PM ET at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. This women’s flyweight bout promises fireworks as both athletes look to stake their claim in a division brimming with talent.

Venue and Broadcast

• Arena: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
• Event: UFC 318 (Holloway vs Poirier 3)
• Card Position: Early Preliminary (usually featured on ESPN platforms)
• Local Time: 7:15 PM CDT / 10:15 PM EDT
• Broadcast: ESPN (U.S.), BT Sport (U.K.), and ESPN+ internationally

The Favorite and the Underdog

Oddsmakers have installed Carli Judice as a sizable favorite, with lines as low as –335 at BetRivers and –250 at BetOnline.ag. The 26-year-old American boasts a 4-2-0 professional record, with all four victories coming by way of knockout—including four stoppages in the opening round. Judice’s powerful striking and six-inch reach advantage make her a clear threat early and often.

Standing across from her in the blue corner is Nicolle Caliari, a 28-year-old Brazilian with an 8-3-0 ledger. Despite dropping her UFC debut via a split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite in January, Caliari remains a +240 underdog at BetRivers and +210 at BetOnline.ag. Her balanced finish rate—five knockouts and three submissions—signals that she can adapt if Judice’s hands fail to find a home.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup offers a textbook example of striker vs. all-around finisher. Judice’s 54% significant strike accuracy and relentless volume contrast sharply with Caliari’s 42% accuracy but superior submission acumen. With both fighters securing four first-round finishes, the first five minutes could decide the trajectory of their flyweight journeys. A win here not only boosts standings but could fast-track the victor toward top-15 contention.

• Judice’s edge: Reach, knockout power, takedown defense (70%), UFC experience dealing with high-pressure debut.
• Caliari’s edge: Versatility (KO and submission victories), grappling threat, resilience in extended brawls (only one fight ending before final bell in UFC debut).

Betting Angles

• Look for value: Judice’s heavy favorite status might suppress payout potential, but her power metrics and defensive takedown rate suggest she can keep this standing and punish Caliari’s entries.
• Underdog intrigue: A small wager on Caliari (+240) could pay dividends if she survives the early storm and drags Judice into deeper waters where grappling exchanges become pivotal.

As the stacked UFC 318 card unfolds, Judice vs. Caliari is a crucial crossroads bout for both women. Will Judice’s raw power and reach suffocate her opponent, or can Caliari’s well-rounded skill set and championship ambition spark a flyweight upset? Stay tuned as this clash for respect and positioning promises to set the tone for the night’s action.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Carli Judice Profile

Age: 26
Country: United States
Height: 67 in
Reach: 68 in (arms), 38 in (legs)
Fighting Style: Heavy-handed striker with developing grappling

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Mar. 15, 2025 – Win vs Yuneisy Duben (KO/TKO, R1 1:40)
2. Jun. 15, 2024 – Loss vs Gabriella Fernandes (Split Decision, R3 5:00)
3. UFC Debut Jun. 15, 2024 (Loss, split decision) – Showed resilience and cardio but fell short on judges’ scorecards

Before stepping into the Octagon, Judice amassed a 4-2-0 pro record, winning all four bouts by knockout—four of them in the opening round.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 100% of UFC victories by strikes; 4 first-round finishes in 6 pro fights.
• Striking Precision (54% Sig. Strike Accuracy): Lands more than half of significant strikes, putting constant pressure on opponents.
• Takedown Defense (70%): Stout sprawl and scrambling ability neutralize wrestling attempts, forcing fights to stay standing.
• Durability & Cardio: Has gone three full rounds and remains dangerous in late rounds.

Weaknesses

• Grappling Offense (25% TD Accuracy): Limited wrestling pedigree; slow entries make takedowns predictable and easy to defend.
• Experience Level: Only two UFC appearances; may be vulnerable if opponent drags fight into deep grappling exchanges.
• Defense (53% Sig. Strike Defense): Allows almost half of opponents’ significant strikes, leaving openings for counters.

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Nicolle Caliari Profile

Age: 28
Country: Brazil
Height: 63 in
Reach: 62 in (arms), 34 in (legs)
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with balanced KO and submission arsenal

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Jan. 11, 2025 – Loss vs Ernesta Kareckaite (Split Decision, R3 5:00) – UFC debut; competitive striking and effective scrambling but edged out.
2. Pre-UFC Streak (3 Fights): All finishes (two KOs, one submission) across regional Brazilian promotions, surging to an 8-3 record.
3. Overall Record: 8-3-0, featuring 5 knockouts and 3 submissions—underscoring her versatility.

Strengths

• Finishing Versatility: 100% finish rate in pro wins (62.5% KO, 37.5% sub), forcing opponents to prepare for multiple threats.
• Submission Acumen: 29% takedown accuracy complements solid top-control and submission setups once the fight hits the mat.
• Strike Defense (56%): Shields well against power punches and heavy hands, able to evade or block strikes effectively.
• Cardio & Pace: Almost 10-minute average fight time; comfortable in extended battles.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (0%): Every opponent with wrestling skill has breached her guard; vulnerable to elite grapplers.
• Striking Precision (42% Sig. Strike Accuracy): Below-average accuracy can lead to wasted energy and open counters against precise strikers.
• Height & Reach Disadvantage: Four-inch height and six-inch arm reach deficits against Judice will challenge her ability to close distance safely.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Striking Battle: Judice’s power and reach advantage vs. Caliari’s defensive movement and counter-striking.
• Grappling Exchanges: Caliari must exploit Judice’s limited offensive wrestling; Judice’s takedown defense could neutralize this plan.
• Fight Pace: Early aggression benefits Judice; if Caliari weathers the storm, her pace and multi-dimensional threats grow more potent in middle rounds.

This profile underscores a classic power-puncher vs. all-around finisher matchup. Judice will look to keep the bout standing and land decisive shots, while Caliari aims to mix takedowns, submissions, and strikes to counteract Judice’s raw power. Whoever imposes their game plan first is likely to walk away with a pivotal flyweight victory.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds Overview

As of July 7, 2025, the betting market firmly projects Carli Judice as a heavy favorite over Nicolle Caliari in this women’s flyweight matchup at UFC 318. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head odds at two of the leading sportsbooks:

• BetRivers

  • Carli Judice: -335
  • Nicolle Caliari: +240

• BetOnline.ag

  • Carli Judice: -250
  • Nicolle Caliari: +210

Judice’s negative line indicates she’s the favorite, while Caliari’s positive line makes her the clear underdog. The gap between Judice at –335 and Caliari at +240 on BetRivers shows a significant market consensus, although BetOnline.ag has tightened the lines slightly to –250 and +210 respectively.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the odds over the past week reveals meaningful shifts:

• Caliari (BetOnline.ag): opened at +270 on July 4, then moved to +260, +250, and finally +210. This 60-point drop suggests sharp money coming in on the Brazilian underdog, perhaps due to public support or insider confidence in her all-around skill set.
• Judice (BetOnline.ag): began at –330, slid to –310, –300, –280, and now –250. The contracting negative line implies bettors are laying less juice on Judice, possibly wary of overpaying on a fighter with just two UFC outings.

Meanwhile, BetRivers lines have been relatively static, holding at –335/+240. The discord between books presents an opportunity for line shopping.

Betting Value and Best Sportsbook

For underdog backers, BetRivers offers the juiciest return on Caliari at +240. Conversely, those backing the favorite will find the best Judice line at BetOnline.ag (–250) rather than the steeper –335 at BetRivers.

• Best value on Caliari: +240 (BetRivers)
• Best value on Judice: –250 (BetOnline.ag)

Payout Scenarios and Implied Probabilities

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter today, here’s what your potential payout and implied win chance would look like:

• Nicolle Caliari at +240

  • Payout: $3,400 (profit of $2,400 + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Probability: ~29%

• Carli Judice at –250

  • Payout: $1,400 (profit of $400 + $1,000 stake)
  • Implied Probability: ~71%

Despite Judice’s dominant standing, the market has tightened her line, indicating bettors are weighing Caliari’s finishing versatility and resilience. Whether you favor the power puncher or the well-rounded finisher, shopping around for the best line is crucial to maximizing your return.