Ulanbekov vs Maksum Flyweight Fight Analysis & Odds

# Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum Fight Analysis

## Introduction

On **Saturday, June 21, 2025**, fight fans will be treated to an intriguing Flyweight showdown as **#10-ranked Tagir Ulanbekov** squares off against rising contender **Azat Maksum** at the iconic **Baku Crystal Hall** in **Baku, Azerbaijan**. This bout is slated for the preliminary card of **UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.**, with the first fight bell scheduled to ring at **16:00 UTC**.

The matchup pits two contrasting styles against one another. Ulanbekov, a decorated **wrestler** with a suffocating top game and seven career submission victories, enters as the **favorite** on the odds board at **-250** (BetOnline.ag). Across the Octagon, Maksum—an explosive **striker** boasting five knockout wins and seven submissions—will look to defy the expectations of oddsmakers as the clear **underdog** at **+210**.

### Why This Fight Matters

- **Ranking Implications:** Ulanbekov’s current #10 spot in the Flyweight division is on the line. A win will not only solidify his position among the division’s elite but potentially move him closer to a top-five contender clash.
- **Stylistic Contrast:** Ulanbekov’s wrestling pedigree and heavy top control will be tested by Maksum’s dynamic stand-up and relentless pace. The interplay between clinch work, takedown entries, and striking exchanges should keep spectators on the edge of their seats.
- **Emerging Contender vs. Established Gatekeeper:** Maksum (17-1-0) is only two UFC outings into his tenure yet already has a split-decision win over veteran Tyson Nam. Ulanbekov (16-2-0), with five UFC appearances dating back to October 2020, must prove he can handle the younger Kazakh’s unorthodox attack.

### Key Details at a Glance

- Event: **UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr.**  
- Date: **June 21, 2025**  
- Location: **Baku Crystal Hall**, Baku, Azerbaijan  
- Card: **Preliminary Card**  
- Bout Time: **16:00 UTC**  
- Division: **Flyweight (125 lb)**  
- Favorite: **Tagir Ulanbekov** (–250)  
- Underdog: **Azat Maksum** (+210)

As we gear up for what promises to be an exciting opening contest in Baku, both fighters will bring more than just their physical skills into the Octagon. Ulanbekov’s veteran savvy and wrestling control will clash with Maksum’s fearless striking and submission threats. Whether you’re betting on the chalk or looking for a value play on the underdog, this fight offers multiple pathways to victory. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each fighter’s strengths, recent form, and key matchups—so you can make an informed pick ahead of fight night!

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

# Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

## Tagir Ulanbekov Profile

**Age:** 33  
**Country:** Russia  
**Fighting Style:** Wrestling  
**UFC Record:** 16-2-0  

### Background & Recent Form  
Tagir Ulanbekov made his UFC debut in October 2020 and has quickly established himself as a top-10 Flyweight talent. Over his last five outings, he has gone **4-1**, including:

- **Win** vs. Clayton Carpenter (Jan. 18, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)  
- **Win** vs. Cody Durden (Dec. 16, 2023) – Submission (Round 2, 4:25)  
- **Win** vs. Nate Maness (Nov. 5, 2022) – Submission (Round 1, 2:11)  
- **Loss** vs. Tim Elliott (Mar. 5, 2022) – Decision (Unanimous)  
- **Win** vs. Allan Nascimento (Oct. 30, 2021) – Decision (Split)  

This run highlights Ulanbekov’s growth as a grappler who can control top position and grind out decisions, but also finish fights via submission.

### Strengths & Weaknesses  

**Strengths:**  
- **Takedown Prowess:** 47% takedown accuracy and 64% takedown defense make him a dominant wrestler who can dictate where the fight takes place.  
- **Submission Threat:** Seven career submissions; dangerous off his back or in scramble situations.  
- **Control Time:** Integrates clinch work and ground control to neutralize strikers’ offense.  

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Striking Defense:** 49% significant strike defense leaves him vulnerable to volume punchers and counter-strikers.  
- **Low Knockout Rate:** Only one KO victory in 16 wins suggests limited power on the feet.  
- **Pace Management:** Extended decision wins indicate he can be out-struck in high-output stand-up battles.

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## Azat Maksum Profile

**Age:** 28  
**Country:** Kazakhstan  
**Fighting Style:** Striker  
**UFC Record:** 1-1-0 (17-1-0 overall)  

### Background & Recent Form  
A dynamic finisher with a 17-1 professional ledger, Maksum has split his two UFC outings:  

- **Loss** vs. Charles Johnson (Feb. 3, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)  
- **Win** vs. Tyson Nam (Jul. 15, 2023) – Decision (Split)  

Prior to joining the UFC, he rattled off a string of first-round finishes (6 total) showcasing his knockout and submission versatility.

### Strengths & Weaknesses  

**Strengths:**  
- **Finishing Ability:** Seven submissions and five knockouts underline a well-rounded finishing arsenal.  
- **Strike Defense:** 56% significant strike defense allows him to slip shots and counter effectively.  
- **Durability & Cardio:** Average fight time of 15:00 signals strong gas tank; capable of pushing pace in later rounds.  

**Weaknesses:**  
- **Low Accuracy:** 24% significant strike accuracy means a high volume of missed strikes, which can allow opponents to capitalize on openings.  
- **Takedown Offense:** 22% takedown accuracy suggests wrestling is a secondary tool rather than a primary tactic.  
- **UFC Inexperience:** Only two Octagon appearances; may face a steep learning curve against an elite grappler like Ulanbekov.

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## Head-to-Head Considerations

- **Wrestling vs. Striking:** Ulanbekov’s high-level wrestling and submission acumen will test Maksum’s takedown defense (67%) and ground awareness.  
- **Pace & Volume:** Maksum will look to keep the fight standing, unleashing flurries to offset Ulanbekov’s control, but must improve accuracy to avoid energy-sapping misses.  
- **Battle of Veterans vs. Prospect:** Ulanbekov’s five UFC fights give him a strategic edge, whereas Maksum’s explosiveness and finishing pedigree bring high-reward possibilities for the underdog.  

This stylistic clash—dominant grappling vs. explosive striking—will determine who takes the next step in the Flyweight division. Bettors and fans should weigh Ulanbekov’s control and consistency against Maksum’s finishing upside and resilience.  

# Odds & Betting Lines

## Current Betting Odds  
- **Tagir Ulanbekov** (Favorite): **–250** (BetOnline.ag)  
- **Azat Maksum** (Underdog): **+210** (BetOnline.ag)  

As things stand, Ulanbekov is a heavy favorite to win this Flyweight clash, with American odds of **–250**, while Maksum sits firmly on the underdog end at **+210**. The gap between these two lines underscores the market’s belief in Ulanbekov’s wrestling dominance and well‐rounded skill set. If you’re shopping for the sharpest price, **BetOnline.ag** currently offers these best available odds on both fighters.

## Line Movement & Historical Trends  
Tracking the shifts over the past two weeks shows a clear movement toward Ulanbekov:  
- **Tagir Ulanbekov:**  
  - June 5, 2025: –210  
  - June 9, 2025: –250  
  - *Shift:* Favorite status strengthened by 40 cents in American‐odds terms.  
- **Azat Maksum:**  
  - June 5, 2025: +180  
  - June 9, 2025: +210  
  - *Shift:* Underdog line lengthened by 30 cents, indicating that fewer bettors are backing Maksum as time goes on.

This kind of line swing is significant. Ulanbekov’s odds shortening suggests a flood of early money going on the Russian wrestler—likely driven by bettors who value his 47% takedown accuracy and gritty submission game. Conversely, the widening gap on Maksum hints at a market reticence to invest in the Kazakh striker’s chances, despite his explosive finishing upside.

## $1,000 Betting Scenarios & Potential Payouts  
- **Wager on Ulanbekov (–250):**  
  - A $1,000 bet would yield a **$400 profit**, returning **$1,400** total.  
- **Wager on Maksum (+210):**  
  - A $1,000 bet would yield a **$2,100 profit**, returning **$3,100** total.  

These payouts illustrate the classic risk/reward trade‐off: a safer play on Ulanbekov versus a high‐upside punt on the underdog.  

## Implied Probabilities (What the Lines Suggest)  
- **Tagir Ulanbekov:** Implied chance to win sits around **71%**, reflecting strong confidence in his wrestling‐based control and consistency.  
- **Azat Maksum:** Implied chance to win sits around **32%**, underscoring his role as the long‐shot striker who must overcome the grappling threat.

## Key Takeaways for Bettors  
1. **Market Sentiment:** The line movement clearly favors Ulanbekov—sharp bettors and early money have dialed in on his strengths.  
2. **Value Play:** If you believe Maksum’s striking defense (56%) and finishing instincts can neutralize takedowns, the **+210** line could offer significant value.  
3. **Risk Management:** A bet on Ulanbekov is low‐risk/low‐reward; a wager on Maksum is high‐risk/high‐reward. Decide whether you’re chasing security or upside.  
4. **Shop Around:** While BetOnline.ag leads with the current best lines, always compare across multiple sportsbooks to ensure you lock in the highest possible payout.

Whether you’re leaning toward the favorite’s chalk or hunting for an underdog coup, understanding these odds and their movement is crucial. Stay tuned as we continue our deep dive into this Flyweight showdown!