Winner: Junior Tafa
Confidence Score: 74Junior Tafa holds a clear striking advantage with a 49% significant strike accuracy and 52% defense, both notably higher than Tuco Tokkos' 39% accuracy and 48% defense. Tafa has a perfect 100% KO win rate, all 6 of his wins coming by knockout, while Tokkos has shown vulnerability to striking and only a 33% takedown defense. Tafa's takedown defense (78%) is strong enough to likely neutralize Tokkos' grappling, especially given Tokkos' recent struggles against strong athletes and finishers. Tafa is also the younger, fresher fighter (28 vs 34), with more explosive finishing ability and better durability. Historically, strikers with strong takedown defense and a power edge win the majority of these matchups in the Light Heavyweight division. Recent form also favors Tafa, as Tokkos is on a two-fight skid and has been finished early. While Tokkos is dangerous if he can get the fight to the ground, the data strongly favors Tafa to keep it standing and find a finish.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.