Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle Odds, Analysis & Prediction

Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, August 2, 2025, the UFC returns to its home base at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for another electrifying night of action. The main card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira is slated to begin at 6:00 PM PT (or 01:00 UTC on August 3), and one of the most intriguing matchups on the card is the Women’s Bantamweight showdown between #10-ranked Karol Rosa of Brazil and #12-ranked Nora Cornolle of France. As fight fans around the world tune in, stakes couldn’t be higher for both athletes: a win here not only cements their place among the division’s elite but also inches them closer to a coveted top-five position.

Rosa (18-7-0) arrives as the odds-on favorite at -150, showcasing a well-rounded record highlighted by her crisp striking and stout takedown defense. A Muay Thai specialist with a pedigree of high-level competition, Rosa has spent the past six years climbing through various promotions, making her UFC debut back in August 2019. With 56% significant strike accuracy, a 70% takedown defense rate, and an average fight time of 15 minutes, she embodies durability and technical proficiency—traits that have earned her unanimous nods over seasoned opponents like Pannie Kianzad and split-decision victories against Yana Santos.

Standing opposite Rosa is the determined Nora Cornolle (9-2-0), carrying the blue corner at +130 underdog odds. Although relatively newer to the promotion—debuting in September 2023—Cornolle has rapidly made her mark with six knockout victories, two submissions, and an overall finishing rate of nearly 90% when she tastes success. Her Muay Thai base underpins a heavy-leg kicking game and powerful clinch work, supported by a 54% significant strike accuracy and 62% strike defense. However, Cornolle’s 11% takedown accuracy and 50% takedown defense suggest potential vulnerabilities against a wrestler as savvy as Rosa.

Why This Fight Matters

• Momentum Swing: A victory for Rosa would extend her streak in the division, potentially lining her up for a top-5 opponent. Conversely, Cornolle’s win would catapult her résumé forward, earning respect as a legitimate contender against the division’s best.
• Stylistic Contrast: Both fighters share a Muay Thai background, but Rosa’s superior wrestling defense and Cornolle’s finishing instincts promise a compelling chess match between striking volume and knockout power.
• Rankings Implications: As the #10 and #12 ranked athletes, respectively, this matchup has direct consequences on the divisional hierarchy. Fans should watch closely to see who emerges atop the playoff picture for a possible title eliminator slot.

With the cage door set to close, all eyes will be on this bantamweight battle to see if Rosa can maintain her favored status or if Cornolle will shock the odds and make a statement in hostile territory. One thing is certain: expect an all-out war where every strike, every takedown, and every scramble could define the next chapter of two ascending careers.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.

Matchup: Fighter Profiles and Analysis

Karol Rosa Profile

Age & Origin:

• Age: 30
• Country: Brazil (Vila Velha)
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts):

1. Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs Ailin Perez (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Aug. 10, 2024 – Win vs Pannie Kianzad (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Dec. 16, 2023 – Loss vs Irene Aldana (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Jul. 1, 2023 – Win vs Yana Santos (Decision – Split)
5. Apr. 22, 2023 – Loss vs Norma Dumont (Decision – Unanimous)

Karol Rosa (18-7-0) has faced a gauntlet of top-15 bantamweights over the past two years, trading decision results against elite opponents. While she’s 2-3 in her last five, her victories over Pannie Kianzad and Yana Santos demonstrate her ability to outpoint top-level strikers and grinders.

Strengths:

• Takedown Defense (70%): Rosa is adept at stuffing grappling attempts, forcing opponents to engage on the feet.
• Striking Accuracy (56%): Her crisp Muay Thai arsenal lands well-placed leg kicks and heavy elbows.
• Durability & Pace: With a 15:00 avg. fight time, she shows excellent cardio and the ability to maintain output through three rounds.

Weaknesses:

• Finishing Rate: Only one first-round finish and six total finishes in 25 pro wins, indicating limited knockout power.
• Significant Strike Defense (50%): Vulnerable to counters and volume punching—she absorbs a fair amount of clean shots.
• Takedown Offense (46%): Not a dominant wrestler; her own attempts can lack the explosiveness to keep opponents grounded.

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Nora Cornolle Profile

Age & Origin:

• Age: 35
• Country: France (Épinay-sur-Seine)
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai

Recent Form (Last 4 Bouts):

1. Apr. 12, 2025 – Win vs Hailey Cowan (Submission – R2, 1:52)
2. Sep. 28, 2024 – Loss vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Decision – Split)
3. Apr. 6, 2024 – Win vs Melissa Mullins (KO/TKO – R2, 3:06)
4. Sep. 2, 2023 – Win vs Joselyne Edwards (Decision – Unanimous)

Nora Cornolle (9-2-0) has burst onto the scene since her UFC debut, posting three wins in four outings. Two of those victories came via finish, showcasing her power and submission acumen.

Strengths:

• Finishing Prowess: Six KOs and two submissions in nine wins—a near 90% finish rate when victorious.
• Significant Strike Defense (62%): Excellent head movement and footwork reduce opponent accuracy.
• Strike Volume & Power: A heavy-leg kicking game and punishing clinch knees that accumulate damage quickly.

Weaknesses:

• Takedown Defense (50%): Susceptible to wrestlers who pressure her hips or chain wrestling sequences.
• Takedown Offense (11%): Rarely initiates grappling—her ground game is more reactive than proactive.
• Avg. Fight Time (11:15): Tends to finish early or fade in later rounds, suggesting cardio could be tested in a full three-round war.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

This bout is set to be a classic striker vs. striker clash with Rosa’s Muay Thai precision and wrestling defense pitted against Cornolle’s finishing desperation and counter-striking. Rosa’s ability to thwart takedowns and push a steady pace could neutralize Cornolle’s power, but if Cornolle can land heavy kicks early and force clinch exchanges, she may crack Rosa’s defense and find her way to a finish before the later rounds. Fans should watch the first two minutes of each round closely: a high-volume start from Cornolle could dictate the fight’s trajectory, while Rosa will look to drag the contest into deeper waters where her cardio and wrestling smother her opponent’s offense.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Karol Rosa: -150 (favorite)
• Nora Cornolle: +130 (underdog)

As it stands, Rosa is the clear favorite at -150, meaning you’d need to risk $150 to win $100 (implied win probability ~60%). Cornolle trails at +130, the underdog getting $130 for every $100 wagered (implied win probability ~43%). These lines position Rosa as the more likely victor, but Cornolle’s upside remains attractive for bettors seeking a bigger payout.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

All listed odds are from BetOnline.ag, one of the most reputable books for UFC action. They consistently offer competitive lines, reliable markets, and a user-friendly interface—making them our pick for wagering on Rosa vs. Cornolle.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Analyzing each fighter’s odds history reveals notable shifts over the past 48 hours:

• Karol Rosa (-150):
  • Jul. 20 – Opened at -193
  • Jul. 21 (midday) – Ticked to -145 as bettors gained confidence in Cornolle
  • Jul. 21 (evening) – Drifted back to -165 and settled at -150
  – Biggest swing: 48 cents from opening to mid-card action

• Nora Cornolle (+130):
  • Jul. 20 – Debuted at +168
  • Jul. 21 (early) – Sharply moved to +115 when underdog money poured in
  • Jul. 22 – Rebounded to +130 after some bettors shifted back to Rosa
  – Largest swing: 53 cents from her peak underdog value

These swings indicate two waves of money: first on Rosa (pushing Cornolle’s line from +168 to +115), then a round of Cornolle backers spiking her odds back toward +130. Line resilience around current numbers suggests a balanced book and confident markets on both sides.

Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you staked $1,000 today:

• On Rosa (-150): You’d profit $667, for a total return of $1,667.
• On Cornolle (+130): You’d profit $1,300, for a total return of $2,300.

Implied probabilities:

• Rosa ~60% chance to win
• Cornolle ~43% chance to win

What the Odds Tell Us

• Rosa’s Favoritism: Her superior wrestling defense and consistent pace justify the favorite tag.
• Cornolle’s Upside: Explosive finishing ability and high strike defense make her +130 line tempting—if she lands early power shots, she could upset.
• Market Confidence: The moderate line shifts (under 60 cents) show neither camp has dramatically outmuscled the other at the betting windows.

For those seeking the safest play, back Rosa straight. If you prefer a high-risk, high-reward scenario, Cornolle’s +130 remains one of the most appealing underdog lines on this card.