Rodriguez vs Souza: UFC Odds & Betting Analysis

Piera Rodriguez vs Ketlen Souza Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, August 2, 2025, fight fans will tune in to the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an electrifying Women’s Strawweight showdown as Piera Rodriguez squares off against Ketlen Souza on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs. Taira. The action is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET (22:00 UTC), with Rodriguez vs. Souza slated for one of the early televised slots, offering an exciting start to what promises to be a night full of high-paced striking, grappling scrambles, and strategic battles.

Standing across the Octagon, the oddsmakers have installed Venezuelan sensation Piera Rodriguez as the betting favorite at -140 (BetOnline.ag), thanks in part to her polished striking arsenal, well-rounded takedown game, and undefeated finishes in the UFC thus far. With a professional record of 10–2 and a 48% significant strike accuracy, Rodriguez has steadily climbed the ranks since her debut in April 2022, showcasing crisp boxing combinations and a defensive acumen that has frustrated opponents and earned her back-to-back decision victories. At 5′3″ with a 63.5″ reach, she possesses the physical tools to dictate distance and control the pace—key factors in her path to victory against the gritty Souza.

On the other side of the cage, Brazil’s Ketlen Souza enters as the slight underdog at +120, carrying a 15–5 record and a reputation for heavy hands and explosive finishes. A boxing specialist who debuted in the UFC in June 2023, Souza has collected eight knockouts—and five first-round stoppages—demonstrating one-punch power that can turn the tide in an instant. Despite a recent split-decision loss to Angela Hill in February 2025, Souza bounced back with a first-round submission of Yazmin Jauregui last September, reminding fans that her ground game is no afterthought. Her significant strike defense sits at 51%, and while her takedown defense (64%) is respectable, she’ll need to weather Rodriguez’s pressure early to unleash her own violent striking.

This clash of styles—Rodriguez’s methodical striker-wrestler hybrid versus Souza’s pure boxing aggressor—sets the stage for a compelling tactical battle. Will Rodriguez maintain distance, mix in takedowns, and grind out another decision win? Or can Souza close the gap, land the heavy shot, and secure her first UFC finish of 2025? As bettors weigh the odds, each fighter brings strengths and vulnerabilities that could swing the momentum in a fight that, on paper, promises fireworks from bell to bell.

In this comprehensive breakdown, we’ll delve deeper into both fighters’ recent UFC performances, analyze key striking and grappling metrics, examine pivotal stylistic matchups, and provide data-driven insights to help you make the most informed betting pick for Rodriguez vs. Souza. Strap in, because this Women’s Strawweight scrap could steal the show on fight night.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Piera Rodriguez vs Ketlen Souza can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

This Women’s Strawweight clash pits two contrasting styles: Piera Rodriguez, a precision striker-wrestler hybrid with veteran smarts and grappling entries, against Ketlen Souza, a pure boxing specialist packing knockout power. Rodriguez enters as a slight betting favorite (-140), relying on her 51% takedown defense and 67% takedown accuracy to control the fight, while Souza (+120) will look to keep the bout standing and unleash her heavy hands. At 5′3″ each, both fighters share similar height and reach, but stylistically they present distinct challenges—Rodriguez’s patient combinations versus Souza’s explosive aggression.

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Piera Rodriguez Profile

Age: 32
Country: Venezuela
Fighting Style: Striker with solid wrestling credentials

UFC Record: 10–2 (5 KO wins, 0 submissions)
Key Metrics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 48%
• Significant Strike Defense: 58%
• Takedown Accuracy: 51%
• Takedown Defense: 67%
• Average Fight Time: 12:56

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Fights):

1. Dec 2024 – Win vs. Josefine Knutsson (Unanimous Decision)
2. May 2024 – Loss vs. Ariane Carnelossi (DQ, illegal knee)
3. Apr 2023 – Loss vs. Gillian Robertson (Submission, RNC Round 2)
4. Oct 2022 – Win vs. Sam Hughes (Unanimous Decision)
5. Apr 2022 – Win vs. Kay Hansen (Unanimous Decision)

Strengths:

• Wrestling & Grappling: With a 51% takedown accuracy and 67% defense, Rodriguez can dictate where the fight takes place, neutralizing Souza’s power.
• Durability & Cardio: Averaging nearly 13 minutes per fight, she thrives in longer, tactical battles and minimizes early volatility.
• Reach & Distance Control: A 63.5" arm reach helps her set up jabs and wrestling entries before Souza can close the distance.

Weaknesses:

• Finishing Instincts: Zero UFC finishes suggest limited power or submission creativity, potentially allowing Souza to recover if pressured.
• Strike Accuracy: At 48%, she lands under half her significant strikes, leaving openings for counter-punchers.
• Previous Submission Loss: Vulnerable to threats on the mat, as evidenced by her RNC defeat to Robertson.

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Ketlen Souza Profile

Age: 30
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Boxer with growing submission chops

UFC Record: 15–5 (8 KO wins, 2 submissions)
Key Metrics:

• Significant Strike Accuracy: 59%
• Significant Strike Defense: 51%
• Takedown Accuracy: 25%
• Takedown Defense: 64%
• Average Fight Time: 08:42

Recent Form (Last 5 UFC Fights):

1. Feb 2025 – Loss vs. Angela Hill (Split Decision)
2. Sep 2024 – Win vs. Yazmin Jauregui (Submission, Arm-Triangle Round 1)
3. Apr 2024 – Win vs. Marnic Mann (Unanimous Decision)
4. Jun 2023 – Loss vs. Karine Silva (Submission, Round 1)
5. Feb 2022 – Win vs. [Outside UFC – omitted]

Strengths:

• One-Punch Power: Eight career KOs and five first-round finishes make her dangerous whenever she lands clean.
• Striking Efficiency: A 59% accuracy rate shows precise, compact boxing—perfect for punishing any overextension.
• Aggressive Pace: An average fight time under nine minutes indicates she often imposes her will early.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Gaps: With only a 25% takedown success rate, she struggles to diversify her offense when the stand-up is stifled.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: A 51% strike defense means nearly half of opponents’ significant strikes get through, inviting volume-based strikers.
• Submission Susceptibility: Two recent submission losses highlight potential scrambling issues if taken down by Rodriguez.

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In this matchup, Rodriguez must blend her wrestling and volume striking to offset Souza’s power, while Souza needs to keep the fight upright and exploit Rodriguez’s mid-range openings. Each fighter’s strengths and vulnerabilities set the stage for a compelling tactical battle in the Octagon.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of July 24, 2025, the line for Piera Rodriguez vs Ketlen Souza at BetOnline.ag stands at:

• Piera Rodriguez (Favorite): –140
• Ketlen Souza (Underdog): +120

This pricing makes Rodriguez the favorite, meaning you must wager $140 to win $100, while Souza’s +120 underdog line pays $120 on a $100 stake. The ~260-point gap (–140 vs. +120) reflects a clear lean toward Rodriguez, although Souza remains well within striking distance of an upset.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:
BetOnline.ag currently offers these odds with competitive juice. For those seeking alternate markets, always compare lines at major books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, but BetOnline.ag’s line movement tracker and affiliate promos make it an attractive option for this fight.

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Odds History and Line Movement Analysis

A look at the line movement shows significant shifts in both fighters’ prices over a 13-hour window:

Piera Rodriguez (–300 → –140)
• Jul 23, 19:29 – Opened at –300
• Jul 23, 19:40 – Moved to –225
• Jul 23, 19:49 – Adjusted to –200
• Jul 23, 20:00 – Sharply dropped to –125
• Jul 24, 08:00 – Settled at –140

Ketlen Souza (+250 → +120)
• Jul 23, 19:29 – Opened at +250
• Jul 23, 19:40 – Tightened to +190
• Jul 23, 19:49 – Shifted to +170
• Jul 23, 20:00 – Dropped to +105
• Jul 24, 08:00 – Ended at +120

Key Takeaways:

• Early Imbalance: Rodriguez opened as a heavy –300 favorite, suggesting early sharp interest.
• Rapid Corrections: Within 30 minutes, the line swung dramatically toward a more balanced market, indicating significant money on Souza or liability management by sportsbooks.
• Stabilization: Both lines stabilized by the next morning, reflecting consensus public and sharp money.

This pronounced swing—Rodriguez moving 160 points and Souza shifting 130 points—signals that initial odds mispriced Souza’s value or that early bettors heavily backed the Brazilian underdog. Sharp line movement like this often precedes a close fight, as bookmakers adjust to mitigate risk.

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Betting Payouts and Implied Chances

If you were to bet $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what you’d receive:

• Rodriguez at –140: Risk $1,000 to win $714 (total payout $1,714).
• Souza at +120: Risk $1,000 to win $1,200 (total payout $2,200).

Based on these lines, Rodriguez carries the higher implied probability—she’s viewed as having the edge going into fight night—while Souza’s underdog status offers a bigger payout and upside for bettors willing to back the upset.

When weighing a bet, consider both the monetary return and the shifting lines. Early sharp movement toward Souza suggests value on the Brazilian’s power game, while Rodriguez’s takedown prowess and cardio justify her favorite status. Always shop around for the best line, monitor real-time movements, and lock in your odds once you’re satisfied with the risk/reward balance.