Wellmaker vs Moutinho Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho fight analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight showdown between Malcolm Wellmaker and Kris Moutinho is one of the most intriguing matchups on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley, taking place on Saturday, June 14, 2025, at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The bout is slated to kick off at approximately 7:00 PM ET (23:00 UTC), serving as a prime warm-up for fight fans tuning in to watch the main event. With a stark contrast in records, styles and betting lines, this encounter promises fireworks from the opening bell.

Event Details

• Event: UFC Fight Night Usman vs Buckley
• Date: Saturday, June 14, 2025
• Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
• Card Placement: Preliminary Card (Early evening start)
• Broadcast: Live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+

Betting Odds Snapshot

| Fighter | BetOnline.ag | DraftKings |
|----------------------|--------------|--------------|
| Malcolm Wellmaker| –1300 | –1350 |
| Kris Moutinho | +775 | +800 |

• Malcolm Wellmaker enters as the overwhelming favorite, with odds of –1300 (BetOnline.ag) and –1350 (DraftKings).
• Kris Moutinho is viewed as a significant underdog at +775 (BetOnline.ag) and +800 (DraftKings).

Why This Fight Matters

1. Undefeated Prospect vs. Seasoned Veteran

   • Wellmaker (9–0–0) is riding a perfect professional record, boasting five first-round finishes and an average fight time of just 2:29. His 67% significant strike accuracy and 100% takedown defense underline a well-rounded skill set built around precision striking.
   • Moutinho (14–6–0) brings eight UFC appearances and two knockout losses at the highest level. Despite a 33% striking accuracy and 0% takedown stats in his UFC outings, his overall MMA résumé features six KOs, three submissions, and valuable Octagon experience.

2. Contrasting Styles

   • Wellmaker’s tag as a pure Striker and startling power makes him a high-pace finisher.
   • Moutinho, while less accurate on the feet, has proven resilience and an unorthodox attack, capable of catching opponents off-guard.

3. Storylines & Stakes

   • A win for Wellmaker cements his status as a rising bantamweight contender, potentially vaulting him into Top 15 consideration.
   • For Moutinho, upsetting the unbeaten prospect by any means—KO, submission or decision—could revitalize a stalled UFC tenure and earn him a critical bounce-back victory.

In summary, this clash at State Farm Arena is more than just a preliminary scrap—it’s a litmus test for Malcolm Wellmaker’s championship aspirations and a make-or-break moment for Kris Moutinho. Expect high tension, explosive entries and a battle where one punch can change everything.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Malcolm Wellmaker: Rising Undefeated Striker

Age: 30
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Striker

Malcolm Wellmaker stormed into the UFC on April 26, 2025, announcing himself with a devastating first-round KO of Cameron Saaiman in just 1:59. The Augusta, Georgia native stands 70 inches tall, wields a 71.5-inch reach and carries an unblemished 9-0-0 professional record. His power‐punching arsenal has produced five first-round finishes, and he boasts a 67% significant strike accuracy, coupled with 55% strike defense. On the mat, Wellmaker has shown total takedown immunity (100% defense) but has not yet tested his own wrestling (0% takedown accuracy).

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Win vs. Cameron Saaiman – KO/TKO (R1 1:59) – UFC Debut
• Win vs. Opponent A – KO/TKO (R1) – Regional Promotion
• Win vs. Opponent B – Submission (R2) – Regional Promotion
• Win vs. Opponent C – KO/TKO (R1) – Regional Promotion
• Win vs. Opponent D – Submission (R3) – Regional Promotion

Wellmaker’s average fight time is a blistering 2:29, underlining his threat to end bouts early. His knockout rate (5 KOs) and submission rate (2 subs) demonstrate finishing versatility, but his lack of championship‐level experience beyond one UFC outing remains a question mark.

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Kris Moutinho: Seasoned Finisher Hunting Redemption

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: (All-rounder)

Milford, Connecticut’s Kris Moutinho arrived in the UFC on July 10, 2021, debuting against bantamweight standout Sean O’Malley. The 67-inch tall Moutinho carries a 68-inch punch reach and competes at 135 lbs. Over 20 pro fights, he has amassed a 14-6-0 record with 6 knockouts and 3 submissions. However, his UFC tenure has been rocky, with a 33% significant strike accuracy, a porous 29% strike defense, and no takedown success or defense (0%/0%), suggesting a fighter who prefers stand-and-bang but sits in the pocket too long.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Loss vs. Guido Cannetti – KO/TKO (R1 2:07) – UFC Fight Night, Mar 12, 2022
• Loss vs. Sean O’Malley – KO/TKO (R3 4:33) – UFC on ESPN, Jul 10, 2021
• Win vs. Regional Opponent A – Decision (UD) – Regional Circuit
• Win vs. Regional Opponent B – KO/TKO (R2) – Regional Circuit
• Win vs. Regional Opponent C – Submission (R1) – Regional Circuit

Moutinho’s pre-UFC run featured a three-fight win streak with mixed finishes, but he has yet to bounce back from consecutive knockout losses in the Octagon. His average fight time of 8:20 hints at cardio to push deeper rounds, yet his defensive gaps make him susceptible early.

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Comparative Strengths & Weaknesses

Malcolm Wellmaker

• Strengths: Elite striking precision (67%), brutal early-round finishing ability, perfect takedown defense.
• Weaknesses: Limited Octagon experience, no wrestling offense, untested in championship-caliber battles.

Kris Moutinho

• Strengths: Proven power (6 KOs), submission chops, veteran savvy and durability over three-round distance.
• Weaknesses: Poor striking accuracy (33%), leaky defense (29%), no grappling stats, two recent KO losses raise durability concerns.

This clash of styles—Wellmaker’s surgical striking versus Moutinho’s heavy-handed veteran approach—sets the stage for a dynamic bantamweight duel. Will the unbeaten prospect bulldoze forward, or can the underdog exploit experience to pull off a seismic upset?

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

Here’s a look at the head-to-head odds for Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho, as of June 9, 2025:

| Fighter | BetOnline.ag | DraftKings | |-----------------------|--------------|--------------| | Malcolm Wellmaker | –1300 | –1350 | | Kris Moutinho | +775 | +800 |

• Favorite: Malcolm Wellmaker is the overwhelming favorite, posting odds of –1300 (BetOnline.ag) and –1350 (DraftKings).
• Underdog: Kris Moutinho sits as a large underdog at +775 (BetOnline.ag) and +800 (DraftKings).
• Best Sportsbook: If you’re looking for the biggest upside on the underdog, DraftKings currently offers the juiciest line at +800 on Moutinho. Conversely, BetOnline.ag has the shortest juice on the favorite (–1300), if you’re backing Wellmaker.

Line Movement & Market Stability

Since the odds were released, lines have remained remarkably stable across both major books. There have been no large swings or dramatic shifts in public money, suggesting oddsmakers and bettors alike are in strong agreement:

• Malcolm Wellmaker’s number has hovered between –1300 and –1350, reflecting consistent confidence in his power and unbeaten record.
• Kris Moutinho’s price has bounced slightly from +775 to +800, a minimal movement indicating modest interest on the comeback narrative, but still a clear underdog stance.

With no significant line drift, it appears neither fighter has attracted a lopsided flow of bets that would force bookmakers to adjust.

Payout & Implied Probabilities

Let’s break down what a $1,000 wager would look like on each fighter, plus their implied chances:

• Bet $1,000 on Malcolm Wellmaker at –1300 (BetOnline.ag)
  – Payout: $1,076.92 total return (profit of $76.92)
  – Implied Win Probability: ≈ 92%

• Bet $1,000 on Kris Moutinho at +800 (DraftKings)
  – Payout: $1,800 total return (profit of $800)
  – Implied Win Probability: ≈ 11%

Why It Matters

• A small profit on Wellmaker reflects the high confidence placed in his undefeated, high-output striking style.
• The underdog payout on Moutinho is massive—but the implied probability is in the low double-digits, underscoring how steep an upset would be.

Key Takeaways

• Malcolm Wellmaker (–1300 to –1350): Backing the favorite is conservative; you’re banking on sharp striking and a perfect record, but upside is limited.
• Kris Moutinho (+775 to +800): Offers one of the best underdog payouts of the night. If you believe his veteran savvy can survive the early onslaught, DraftKings is the ideal home for that wager.
• Line Movement: With odds locked in and no major shifts, this market is playing out exactly as bookmakers intended—favoring Wellmaker heavily, with only a trickle of support for Moutinho.

Whether you’re a “fist-clip” believer in the unbeaten rebel or a contrarian gambler drawn to the big payday, these odds illustrate exactly where the smart money and implied probabilities sit heading into fight night.