Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman UFC Odds & Analysis

Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On Saturday, June 14, 2025, two dynamic bantamweights will square off on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The octagon clash between Ricky Simon and Cameron Smotherman is scheduled to kick off at approximately 7:00 PM local time, serving as one of the evening’s most intriguing matchups before the main card begins.

Venue and Broadcast

• Event: UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
• Stage: Preliminary Card
• Date & Time: June 14, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Where to Watch: UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ (U.S.)

Betting Lines and Odds

Heading into this bout, there is a clear favorite and a notable underdog:

• Ricky Simon (Red Corner):
  • Odds: -500 (BetOnline.ag & BetRivers)
  • Veteran presence with a 21-6-0 professional record
• Cameron Smotherman (Blue Corner):
  • Odds: +375 (BetOnline.ag) / +350 (BetRivers)
  • Up-and-coming talent at 12-5-0

The odds reflect Simon’s status as a heavy favorite, largely due to his proven UFC tenure, wrestling pedigree, and high-level takedown statistics. Smotherman, although less experienced on the big stage, carries dangerous power (6 KOs) and the potential to upset if he can keep the fight standing.

Fighter Spotlights

Ricky Simon

• Age: 32 | Height: 6’0” | Reach: 69”
• Fighting Style: Wrestling
• UFC Debut: August 8, 2017
• Key Skills:
  • Takedown Accuracy: 44%
  • Takedown Defense: 75%
  • Significant Strike Accuracy: 44%
• Notable Finishes: 7 first-round stoppages

Simon has developed into one of the most well-rounded bantamweights in the division. His wrestling base allows him to dictate where the fight goes—whether it’s grinding out decisions or hunting early submissions and ground-and-pound finishes. He’ll be looking to exploit his superior grappling on Smotherman, who has yet to record a successful takedown in the UFC.

Cameron Smotherman

• Age: 27 | Height: 5’9” | Reach: 69”
• UFC Debut: October 19, 2024
• Key Skills:
  • Knockout Power: 6 KOs in 12 wins
  • Significant Strike Defense: 61%
  • Average Fight Time: 8:00 minutes
• Notable Wins: Unanimous decision over Jake Hadley

Smotherman brings a sharp boxing attack and proven durability to the cage. His path to victory likely lies in keeping the bout upright, using his power to slow Simon’s high-pace wrestling attacks. However, his inexperience in takedowns (0% accuracy so far) and occasional cardio questions could become liabilities in a three-round war.

What’s at Stake

For Simon, a win cements his status as a top-15 bantamweight contender and puts him back in the conversation for a main card spot. For Smotherman, an upset victory over a former title challenger would skyrocket his profile and open doors to higher-profile matchups. The stakes are clear: experience versus upside, wrestling versus power, and a potential breakout performance by the underdog.

Buckle up for what promises to be a fast-paced, striking-wrestling chess match. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, keep an eye on the takedown battles, cardio management, and who controls the center of the octagon. This fight could very well set the tone for an electric evening in Atlanta.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Cameron Smotherman – The Rising Power Puncher

Background

• Age: 27
• Country: United States (Houston, TX)
• Fighting Style: Primarily a striker with a boxing base
• UFC Debut: October 19, 2024

With a professional record of 12–5–0, Cameron Smotherman burst onto the UFC scene in late 2024. Standing 5’9” with a 69” reach, he relies on crisp combinations and knockout power, having stopped six opponents inside the distance.

Recent Form

1. Loss vs. Serhiy Sidey (May 3, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous)
2. Win vs. Jake Hadley (October 19, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)

Smotherman is 1–1 inside the Octagon but has shown resilience. After earning a clear unanimous-decision victory over fellow debutant Jake Hadley, he encountered a tougher test against Serhiy Sidey, ultimately losing a three-round striking battle.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 6 of 12 wins by KO/TKO – one of the highest stoppage rates in the division.
• Significant Strike Defense (61%): Demonstrates solid head movement and footwork to avoid incoming power shots.
• Durability: Has gone the distance in three of his last four fights, evidencing a strong chin and gas tank.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (50%): Has allowed half of opponents’ attempts, signaling vulnerability to high-level wrestlers.
• Takedown Offense (0%): No successful takedowns landed in UFC competition, limiting his ability to dictate where the fight takes place.
• Striking Precision (37%): Below-average accuracy may leave him trailing on volume against precise opponents.

---

Ricky Simon – The Seasoned Wrestling Specialist

Background

• Age: 32
• Country: United States (Pendleton, OR)
• Fighting Style: Wrestling-based all-around MMA
• UFC Debut: August 8, 2017

A veteran of the Octagon with a professional record of 21–6–0, Ricky Simon boasts a strong wrestling pedigree and has evolved into a well-rounded bantamweight threat. He stands 6’0” tall with a 69” reach, matching Smotherman’s length but bringing a five-year UFC tenure advantage.

Recent Form

1. Win vs. Javid Basharat (February 22, 2025) – KO/TKO Round 1
2. Loss vs. Vinicius Oliveira (June 29, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
3. Loss vs. Mario Bautista (January 13, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous)
4. Loss vs. Yadong Song (April 29, 2023) – KO/TKO Round 5
5. Win vs. Jack Shore (July 16, 2022) – Submission Round 2

Simon is 2–3 in his last five outings but enters off an emphatic first-round TKO over Javid Basharat. Despite the recent losses, his high-level wrestling and fight IQ have kept him firmly in the top 15 conversation.

Strengths

• Takedown Accuracy (44%) & Defense (75%): Elite wrestling control lets Simon dictate the pace, nullifying opponent strengths.
• Significant Strike Accuracy (44%): Efficient striking that conserves energy and capitalizes on openings.
• Finishing Instinct: Seven first-round stoppages in his career show he can end fights early when he senses opportunity.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (61%): Matches up evenly with Smotherman in striking defense, but has been caught in stand-up exchanges before.
• Inconsistency in Form: Three consecutive losses in 2023–24 exposed lapses in cardio and striking exchanges against elite foes.
• Cardio Concerns: An average fight time of 12:22 suggests slower starts and potential late-round fatigue.

---

Head-to-Head Outlook

This clash pits Simon’s wrestling acumen and finishing versatility against Smotherman’s one-punch power and striking durability. Simon will look to exploit the takedown opportunities and control the fight on the mat, while Smotherman must keep the fight standing, utilize movement, and land big shots. Success for Smotherman hinges on surviving the early takedown assault and finding his power in mid-round exchanges. For Simon, maintaining relentless grappling pressure and mixing in crisp strikes will be key to avoiding any upset.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley, the wagering markets have clearly established Ricky Simon as a heavy favorite and Cameron Smotherman as a sizable underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the latest head-to-head lines:

• Ricky Simon (Red Corner)

  • BetOnline.ag: –500
  • BetRivers: –500

• Cameron Smotherman (Blue Corner)

  • BetOnline.ag: +375
  • BetRivers: +350

Simon’s -500 price tag tells us he is the overwhelming choice, while Smotherman’s +375 at BetOnline.ag represents the most generous payout among major books. For bettors backing the underdog, BetOnline.ag is the clear go-to, offering +375 versus +350 at BetRivers. If you’re siding with Simon, both BetOnline.ag and BetRivers are dead-even with –500.

Line Movement Analysis

Examining the movement over the past 48 hours reveals a tightening of the chalk and some softening on the dog:

• Ricky Simon

  • Opened at –450 (BetOnline.ag) → Firmed to –500
  • Opened at –480 (BetRivers) → Firmed to –500

• Cameron Smotherman

  • Opened at +350 (BetOnline.ag) → Drifted to +375
  • Opened at +330 (BetRivers) → Drifted to +350

These shifts indicate heavy early money on Simon, pushing his line from moderate favorite into a dominant chalk position. Conversely, Smotherman’s line has moved up, meaning bettors backing the underdog now lock in slightly larger returns. No single swing exceeds 50 cents in implied odds, but the consistent drift reflects sharp and public conviction on Simon’s wrestling edge.

Potential Payouts

If you had $1,000 to wager on fight night, here’s what you’d stand to win (profit plus your original stake):

• Ricky Simon at –500

  • Bet $1,000 → Return $1,200 (Profit: $200)

• Cameron Smotherman at +375 (Best at BetOnline.ag)

  • Bet $1,000 → Return $4,750 (Profit: $3,750)

• Cameron Smotherman at +350 (BetRivers)

  • Bet $1,000 → Return $4,500 (Profit: $3,500)

Clearly, the underdog route pays out substantially more, but you’re backing a fighter with roughly 20–22% implied chance of victory, compared to Simon’s 80–83% implied chance. If you value a near-lock favorite, Simon offers high-probability security; if you crave upside, Smotherman’s line has drifted to its most lucrative point.

Implied Win Probabilities

• Ricky Simon: ~83% chance to win
• Cameron Smotherman: ~21–22% chance to win

No matter which side you choose, be sure to shop at multiple books to capture the best available line. For bettors seeking the optimal dog payout, BetOnline.ag’s +375 is the standout value. Meanwhile, fans banking on the veteran veteran wrestler can get the same –500 price across both major shops. Always monitor late shifts—especially if smoke comes out of the locker room—since UFC odds can tighten or drift rapidly as more money floods in.