Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van Odds & AI Pick | UFC 317 Preview

Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van Fight Analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, June 28, 2025, at the world-famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, two of the UFC’s most dynamic flyweights will collide on the preliminary card of UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira. Scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET, the co-featured bout between #1–ranked Brandon Royval and rising contender #10–ranked Joshua Van promises fireworks from the opening bell.

Brandon Royval, a veteran of the Octagon with a 17-7-0 record, enters as the clear favorite. Known for his relentless pace, thunderous power, and elite grappling, Royval carries a reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers. With 4 knockout victories, 9 submissions, and an astonishing 10 first-round stoppages, he has proven time and again that even the best opponents can be overwhelmed by his unyielding aggression. His latest outing, a split‐decision victory over Tatsuro Taira in October 2024, showcased his championship‐caliber durability and fight‐ending urgency.

Standing across from him is the young and hungry underdog, Joshua Van, who boasts a 14-2-0 record and a well-rounded skill set that belies his 23 years. Hailing from Hakha, Myanmar, Van blends explosive freestyle wrestling with crisp striking—he’s landed significant strikes at a 55% accuracy clip and defended incoming blows with 60% efficiency. Though he’s been tested recently (a decision loss to Bruno Silva in June 2025), Van remains a potent submission threat, securing 2 victories via choke and controlling opponents on the mat with a 64% takedown accuracy.

Why This Matchup Matters

• Climbing the Ladder: For Royval, another dominant win solidifies his claim for a future title shot against whoever emerges from the flyweight championship picture.
• Making a Statement: Van has the tools to derail Royval’s momentum and announce himself as the next contender, especially if he can neutralize Royval’s ground game.
• Styles Make Fights: Royval’s brawler mentality versus Van’s hybrid approach creates a classic striker-versus-wrestler narrative—expect scrambles, momentum shifts, and a pivotal moment that determines the night.

Betting Outlook

Across major sportsbooks, Royval is priced around -125 (DraftKings) to -136 (FanDuel), labeling him the man to beat. Meanwhile, Van enters at about +100 to +108, offering value to bettors who believe the younger, more versatile athlete can pull off an upset in hostile territory.

As fight night approaches, keep an eye on the opening pace—if Royval can land early takedowns and impose his will, this could be a short and brutal affair. Conversely, if Van withstands the initial onslaught, his cardio and tactical striking could turn the tide in the championship city of Las Vegas. Either way, Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van is poised to deliver high stakes, high drama, and high-octane action in the heart of fight week.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval Profile

Age: 32
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Brawler
Record: 17-7-0

Brandon Royval is the reigning veteran in this matchup. Standing 5’9” with a 68-inch reach, he made his UFC debut in May 2020 and quickly earned a reputation for explosive finishes. In his last five outings:

• Oct. 12, 2024 – Win vs Tatsuro Taira (Split Decision, 5 rounds)
• Feb. 24, 2024 – Win vs Brandon Moreno (Split Decision, 5 rounds)
• Dec. 16, 2023 – Loss vs Alexandre Pantoja (Unanimous Decision, 5 rounds)
• Apr. 15, 2023 – Win vs Matheus Nicolau (KO/TKO, R1, 2:09)
• May 7, 2022 – Win vs Matt Schnell (Submission, R1, 2:14)

His recent form shows he can go the distance with elite opponents—two split decisions against top contenders—while still possessing first-round explosiveness.

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: 9 career submission wins, often locking chokes in scramble situations.
• Finishing Instinct: 10 first-round stoppages underline sharp timing and power.
• Takedown Accuracy: 75% success rate allows him to dictate grappling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy: At 40%, he lands fewer significant strikes than many flyweights, leading to prolonged firefights.
• Takedown Defense: 45% means wrestlers with strong double-leg attacks can exploit openings.
• Striking Defense: Only 48% of significant strikes are defended, making him susceptible to volume strikers.

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Joshua “Vietnam Kid” Van Profile

Age: 23
Country: Myanmar
Fighting Style: Freestyle (Wrestling-Striking Hybrid)
Record: 14-2-0

Joshua Van burst onto the scene with a strong wrestling base complemented by improving striking. Measuring 5’5” with a 65-inch reach, he debuted in June 2023 and has already faced stiff competition:

• June 7, 2025 – Loss vs Bruno Silva (Decision)
• Mar. 8, 2025 – Win vs Rei Tsuruya (Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds)
• Dec. 7, 2024 – Win vs Cody Durden (Unanimous Decision, 3 rounds)
• Sept. 14, 2024 – Loss vs Edgar Chairez (Decision)
• July 13, 2024 – Loss vs Charles Johnson (KO/TKO, R3, 0:20)

Though he has setbacks, Van’s two consecutive decision victories demonstrate disciplined growth and durability.

Strengths

• Striking Efficiency: 55% significant strike accuracy highlights precision over volume.
• Strike Defense: 60% of strikes are successfully defended, aiding in counter-attack setups.
• Takedown Defense: 81%, one of the division’s best, frustrates aggressive grapplers.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Rate: Only 2 first-round finishes and 2 submission wins suggest less ending urgency.
• Experience Gap: At 23, Van has faced fewer five-round wars; cardio in late championship rounds is unproven.
• Power Disparity: Though he averages 7 knockouts, he has yet to stop a top-15 opponent, indicating possible issues breaking durable adversaries.

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In this clash, Royval’s relentless brawling and submission pedigree will test Van’s disciplined defense and counter-striking. Royval aims to grind opponents down with wrestling and finishes; Van seeks to stay upright, pick his shots, and exploit Royval’s defensive lapses. This stylistic contrast is central to the intrigue: veteran strength versus youthful precision.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

Heading into UFC 317, the betting market clearly favors Brandon Royval over Joshua Van, but the lines offer value for both fighters:

• Brandon Royval

  • DraftKings: -125
  • FanDuel: -136
  • BetOnline.ag: -120

• Joshua Van

  • DraftKings: +105
  • FanDuel: +108
  • BetOnline.ag: +100

Royval’s negative odds indicate he’s the favorite, while Van’s positive odds mark him as the underdog. The gap between -136 (FanDuel) and +108 (FanDuel) shows a 244-point swing on the same platform, underscoring how sportsbooks view Royval’s edge.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the opening lines to the current market reveals notable shifts:

• Brandon Royval

  • Opened at +105 (DraftKings, June 10)
  • Quickly moved to -120 by June 10 evening
  • Stayed in the -125 to -136 range across books

• Joshua Van

  • Opened as slight favorite at -125 (DraftKings, June 10)
  • Drifted to +100 (BetOnline.ag) and +108 (FanDuel) by June 16

These swings suggest early money poured in on Royval, flipping Van from a brief opening favorite to underdog status. The biggest single shift was on DraftKings, where Van went from -125 to +105 in just 48 hours—a 230-point move.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

If you were to wager $1,000 on either fighter today:

• Betting $1,000 on Royval at -125 (DraftKings)

  • Potential profit: $800
  • Total payout: $1,800
  • Implied probability: ~55%

• Betting $1,000 on Van at +108 (FanDuel)

  • Potential profit: $1,080
  • Total payout: $2,080
  • Implied probability: ~48%

While Royval offers a higher chance to win on paper, Van’s underdog status provides a more lucrative return.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Royval: BetOnline.ag at -120 is the softest favorite line, meaning you risk less for the same $1,000 stake (profit of $833).
• For Van: FanDuel at +108 offers the juiciest underdog payout, delivering an extra $28 over DraftKings’ +105.

Summary

• Favorite: Brandon Royval (–125 to –136)
• Underdog: Joshua Van (+100 to +108)
• Biggest Line Swing: Joshua Van on DraftKings from –125 → +105
• Top Value:
  • BetOnline.ag for Royval (–120)
  • FanDuel for Van (+108)

Whether you back the relentless grappling and finishing power of Royval or the crisp striking and stout defense of Van, the odds movement indicates the sharpest money has sided with Royval—but savvy bettors may still find value on Van’s resilient underdog line.