Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim - AI generated fight pick

Gabriel Bonfim is 15 years younger than Stephen Thompson, which is a significant factor as fighters 40+ in the welterweight division have a much lower win rate against opponents in their athletic prime (27 years old). Bonfim's grappling is elite for the division, with a 77% takedown accuracy and 13 submission wins, which is a major stylistic threat to Thompson, who has a 63% takedown defense and has historically struggled against strong grapplers. Bonfim's striking defense (65%) and overall athleticism will also help him avoid Thompson's karate-based attacks. While Thompson has a reach advantage and is highly experienced, his recent losses to younger, more explosive fighters (e.g., Buckley by KO/TKO) and his declining durability at age 42 are major concerns. Historically, fighters with Bonfim's age, grappling-heavy style, and finishing ability have a strong win rate against older, striking-based veterans. Bonfim's only loss is to Dalby (TKO), but he has rebounded with decisive wins. Unless Thompson can keep the fight at range and avoid the ground, the data favors Bonfim to win, most likely by submission or control.