Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page UFC 319 Betting Analysis

Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page fight analysis

Introduction

The Middleweight clash between Jared Cannonier and Michael “Venom” Page is set to ignite the Main Card of UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev on Saturday, August 16, 2025, at the iconic United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Penciled in for a 10:00 PM ET start on ESPN+, this bout features a seasoned veteran looking to reassert himself and a flamboyant striker aiming to make a statement in his sophomore year with the promotion.

• Event: UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev
• Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
• Card Placement: Main Card, Middleweight bout

The Contenders

Michael “Venom” Page (23-3-0) enters this match as the -180 favorite (implied win probability ~64%), according to the latest odds from Caesars and DraftKings. At age 37, the London native boasts a 62% significant strike accuracy and a reputation for unorthodox, highlight-reel stand-up that has powered him to 13 first-round finishes in his professional career. In his UFC tenure so far, Page has compiled a 2-1 record, most recently dispatching Shara Magomedov by unanimous decision in February 2025. Despite a one-sided loss to Ian Garry in June 2024, Page’s 79-inch reach and footwork make him a constant threat on the outside, and he’s more than capable of turning any fight into a striking clinic.

Opposite him stands Jared Cannonier (18-8-0), the +150 underdog (implied win probability ~40%) from Dallas, Texas. At 41 years old, Cannonier is one of the most battle-hardened veterans on the roster, with 11 knockouts and a well-rounded game that blends power punching and relentless pressure. A former Top 10 Middleweight (#8) with a UFC debut back in 2015, “The Killa Gorilla” is coming off a spectacular fourth-round TKO over Gregory Rodrigues in February 2025. Boasting a 44% takedown accuracy and a 57% significant strike defense, Cannonier has shown he can mix it up on the feet or drag opponents into deep waters.

Betting Landscape

• Michael Page
  • Odds range: -165 (BetOnline) to -185 (BetMGM)
  • Strengths: 62% striking accuracy, 13 first-round finishes, 79″ reach
  • Recent odds movement: From -172 (7/17) to -192 (8/4) on FanDuel
• Jared Cannonier
  • Odds range: +136 (FanDuel) to +150 (Caesars & DraftKings)
  • Strengths: 11 KO victories, 44% takedown accuracy, proven durability
  • Recent odds movement: From +134 (7/17) to +148 (8/4) on FanDuel

With Page installed as the favorite in most markets, bettors will weigh his dynamic striking against Cannonier’s power and all-around MMA pedigree. As a compelling underdog, Cannonier offers upside value, particularly if he can neutralize Page’s range and push the action into deeper rounds.

This fight promises a contrast of styles: the elegant, elusive “Venom” versus the blunt, powerful Gorilla. Whether you side with the seasoned Cage warrior or the unorthodox showman, this Middleweight showdown has all the makings of a must-watch battle on one of 2025’s most anticipated cards.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Michael “Venom” Page

Background

• Age: 37
• Country: England (Born: London)
• Fighting Style: Unorthodox stand‐up striker with elite timing and movement
• UFC Tenure: Debuted Mar. 9, 2024; currently holds a 2-1 UFC record

Recent Form

1. Win vs Shara Magomedov (Feb. 1, 2025) – Unanimous Decision
2. Loss vs Ian Garry (Jun. 29, 2024) – Unanimous Decision
3. Win vs Kevin Holland (Mar. 9, 2024) – Unanimous Decision

Page has alternated wins and losses in the UFC, showcasing his ability to dictate range against journeymen but struggling when opponents pressure his lead leg or cut off the cage.

Strengths

• Striking Precision (62% Sig. Strike Accuracy): One of the highest in the division, allowing Page to pick apart opponents from distance.
• Reach Advantage (79″): His rangy frame makes it difficult for shorter fighters to close the gap without eating strikes.
• First Round Finishing Instinct (13 First‐Round Finishes): Demonstrates explosiveness and the ability to end fights early if he lands clean.
• Footwork & Angles: Constant lateral movement and feints frustrate cerebral opponents and rack up strikes.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (20% Acc.): Limited wrestling; opponents who commit to the clinch or takedown can neutralize his offense.
• Durability Against Pressure: In the Garry fight, sustained body work and pressure shut down his rhythm.
• Ground Game Underdeveloped: With only 3 submission wins in 23 career victories, he lacks consistent grappling threats.

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Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier

Background

• Age: 41
• Country: United States (Born: Dallas, Texas)
• Fighting Style: Power striker with solid wrestling instincts and a granite chin
• UFC Tenure: Debuted Jan. 3, 2015; veteran of 26 UFC bouts

Recent Form

1. Win vs Gregory Rodrigues (Feb. 15, 2025) – TKO Round 4
2. Loss vs Caio Borralho (Aug. 24, 2024) – Unanimous Decision
3. Loss vs Nassourdine Imavov (Jun. 8, 2024) – KO/TKO Round 4
4. Win vs Marvin Vettori (Jun. 17, 2023) – Unanimous Decision
5. Win vs Sean Strickland (Dec. 17, 2022) – Split Decision

Cannonier has alternated peaks and valleys, rebounding from two straight losses to notch a statement TKO over Rodrigues. His longevity speaks to his toughness, but recent setbacks highlight potential durability concerns.

Strengths

• One-Punch Power (11 KO Wins): A single overhand or looping hook can change the fight instantly.
• Takedown Offense (44% Acc.): Compared to Page, Cannonier can mix his striking with timely level changes, threatening wrestling exchanges.
• Striking Defense (57% Sig. Strike Defense): Slightly better than Page’s defense, he weathers flurries and counters effectively.
• Experience & Fight IQ: Veteran savvy allows him to adapt mid‐fight, especially in later rounds.

Weaknesses

• Age & Cardio: At 41, his average fight time of 13:51 suggests slower starts and potential gas issues in deep waters.
• Inconsistent Chin: Two TKO losses in his last five fights indicate vulnerability when under sustained fire.
• Lower Strike Accuracy (50%): Less precise than Page, meaning he may miss more often and walk into counters.

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Head-to-Head Implications

This clash of styles pits Page’s precision and reach against Cannonier’s power and wrestling mix. Page must avoid the cage and keep the fight upright, while Cannonier will look to cut angles, force scrambles, and land heavy shots. Bettors should weigh Page’s long‐range mastery against Cannonier’s finish ability and proven ground threats. In a fight where a single moment can decide the outcome, understanding each fighter’s profile is crucial for spotting value on the odds board.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of the latest data, Michael Page sits firmly as the favorite across most major sportsbooks, while Jared Cannonier carries underdog status:

• Michael Page:

  • FanDuel: –174
  • Caesars/DraftKings/BetMGM/BetRivers: –180
  • BetMGM (peak): –185
  • BetOnline.ag: –165

• Jared Cannonier:

  • FanDuel: +136
  • BetRivers: +140
  • BetOnline.ag: +145
  • Caesars/DraftKings/BetMGM: +150

The gap between the two camps hovers around 330–335 points (in American odds), implying Page is a solid favorite (around 64% win probability) while Cannonier appeals as a 40%–42% win chance.

Line Movement & Trends

A review of the odds history uncovers notable swings on both sides:

• Michael Page

  • FanDuel drifted from –172 (July 17) to –192 (Aug. 4) before settling near –174.
  • BetMGM peaked at –200 in early August, then eased back to –185.
  • BetOnline.ag moved dramatically from –205 (July 22) down to –170 (Aug. 4), signaling sharp money on Page early before some profit-taking.

• Jared Cannonier

  • FanDuel shifted from +134 to +148 over the same period.
  • BetMGM escalated to +165 (Aug. 3) before falling to +150.
  • BetOnline.ag saw swings between +175 and +150 in late July and early August.

These oscillations suggest early confidence in Page’s veteran savvy, followed by periodic value grabs on Cannonier when his TKO over Rodrigues circulated.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at current odds, here’s what you’d see:

• Betting Michael Page at –180 (e.g., Caesars/DraftKings):

  • Profit: $555
  • Total return: $1,555
  • Implied win probability: ~64%

• Betting Jared Cannonier at +150 (best available at Caesars/DraftKings/BetMGM):

  • Profit: $1,500
  • Total return: $2,500
  • Implied win probability: ~40%

While Page offers a safer route, Cannonier’s underdog payout nearly triples your stake if he pulls off the upset.

Best Sportsbook Recommendations

• For Favorites (Page):

  • BetOnline.ag currently provides the softest favorite line at –165, boosting your payout to ~$606 profit on a $1,000 bet.

• For Underdogs (Cannonier):

  • Caesars, DraftKings, and BetMGM all sit at +150, maximizing your upside to $1,500 profit per $1,000 wager.

Shop around: if you lean toward Page’s precision striking, take advantage of BetOnline.ag’s friendlier vig. If you believe Cannonier’s power and wrestling mix will prevail, lock in the +150 underdog line at Caesars or DraftKings. With significant line movement on both sides, there’s value to be found for bettors who time their action correctly.