Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk Fight Analysis
Introduction
The middleweight prelims at UFC 319 are set to heat up on Sunday, August 17, 2025, when veteran grappler Gerald Meerschaert takes on explosive striker Michal Oleksiejczuk. This clash kicks off the preliminary card at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, with the cage door opening for this contest at approximately 3:30 AM ET (midnight PT). As fight fans settle in ahead of the Du Plessis vs. Chimaev main event, all eyes will be on this stylistic showdown between two very different Middleweight operators.
Event Details
- Date: Sunday, August 17, 2025
- Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL, USA
- Card Placement: Preliminary Card
- Local Start Time: 3:30 AM ET / 12:30 AM PT
Betting Landscape
Oddsmakers across the board have installed Michal Oleksiejczuk as the clear favorite. At FanDuel, Oleksiejczuk checks in at -280, while BetOnline.ag and DraftKings offer lines of -205 and -245 respectively. His combination of one-punch power and lightning-fast starts has made him a popular play among bettors.
By contrast, Gerald Meerschaert sits firmly in underdog territory, trading between +175 (BetOnline.ag) and +215 (BetRivers). At +200 on DraftKings, Meerschaert presents a lucrative payout should the seasoned submission specialist find his way to victory.
The Contenders at a Glance
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Michal Oleksiejczuk (30, Poland)
• Professional Record: 20-9-0
• Knockout Artist: 15 KO/TKO victories, 12 first-round stoppages
• UFC Signature Traits: 51% significant strike accuracy, 44% takedown accuracy
• Recent Form: 2-3 in last five, but bounced back with a first-round KO over Sedriques Dumas in April 2025 -
Gerald Meerschaert (37, USA)
• Professional Record: 37-19-0
• Submission Savant: 29 submission wins, 15 first-round finishes
• UFC Signature Traits: 32% takedown accuracy, 43% takedown defense
• Recent Form: 2-3 in last five, with back-to-back losses to Brad Tavares and Reinier De Ridder
As the midnight bell rings in Chicago, Oleksiejczuk will look to leverage his explosive striking to keep Meerschaert at bay, while the American veteran will seek to grind the fight into his realm—where his world-class grappling and relentless submission hunts can shine. With contrasting strengths and a lot on the line for both men, this preliminary bout promises fireworks from the opening seconds. Stay tuned as UFC 319’s middleweight showdown sets the tone for what could be an action-packed night at the United Center.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.
Matchup and Individual Profiles
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Background
- Age: 30
- Country: Poland
- Fighting Style: MMA Striker / Knockout Artist
Michal Oleksiejczuk burst onto the UFC scene in late 2017 and quickly earned a reputation for explosive power and fast starts. Standing 6'0" with a 74" reach, he uses crisp boxing combinations and punishing leg kicks to overwhelm opponents before they find their rhythm.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win | Apr. 12, 2025 vs. Sedriques Dumas | KO/TKO (R1 – 2:49)
- Loss | Aug. 3, 2024 vs. Shara Magomedov | Decision – Unanimous
- Loss | June 1, 2024 vs. Kevin Holland | Submission (R1 – 1:34)
- Loss | Mar. 9, 2024 vs. Michel Pereira | Submission (R1 – 1:01)
- Win | Aug. 26, 2023 vs. Chidi Njokuani | KO/TKO (R1 – 4:16)
Oleksiejczuk’s last five outings showcase his boom-or-bust approach. When his power connects early, fights end swiftly; if he can’t land clean shots, he has struggled with takedown defense and submission escapes.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Power Finishing: 15 of his 20 wins are by KO/TKO, with 12 coming in the first round.
- Striking Accuracy (51%): Oleksiejczuk lands over half of his significant strikes, reflecting efficient and heavy shots.
- Significant Strike Defense (59%): He avoids many incoming strikes, allowing him to counter effectively.
Weaknesses:
- Takedown Defense (48%): Just under half of opponent takedown attempts are defended, making him vulnerable to wrestlers.
- Submission Defense: Three of his four UFC losses have come via submission, indicating a gap on the ground.
- Cardio if Scrambled: Extended grappling exchanges and late-round pressure often sap his gas tank and diminishing power.
Gerald Meerschaert
Background
- Age: 37
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Freestyle Grappler / Submission Specialist
A veteran of 56 professional fights, Gerald Meerschaert leverages world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu and relentless chain wrestling. At 6'1" with a 77.5" reach, he uses technical striking to set up takedowns and hunts submissions in every exchange.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Loss | Apr. 5, 2025 vs. Brad Tavares | Decision – Unanimous
- Loss | Nov. 9, 2024 vs. Reinier De Ridder | Submission (R3 – 1:44)
- Win | Aug. 24, 2024 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan | Submission (R2 – 4:12)
- Win | Mar. 16, 2024 vs. Bryan Barberena | Submission (R2 – 4:23)
- Loss | Aug. 19, 2023 vs. Andre Petroski | Decision – Split
Meerschaert’s recent two-fight slide was snapped by back-to-back submission victories, reinforcing his status as one of the division’s top grapplers. However, his durability has been tested by high-level strikers and powerful wrestlers.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Submission Mastery: Holds 29 submission wins—over 75% of his victories, with a propensity for chokes and armbars.
- Takedown Accuracy (32%) & Pressure: While not elite in conversion, he imposes wrestling pressure and grinds opponents over time.
- Experience: 56 pro fights and nine years in the UFC; his fight IQ shines in positioning and transitions.
Weaknesses:
- Striking Output (46% Sig. Strike Accuracy): Less efficient striker, often out-paced by explosive stand-up artists.
- Striking Defense (54%): Allows opponents to connect at a moderate rate, creating risks against power punchers.
- Cardio Concerns: At 37, his 8:47 average fight time and wrestling-heavy style can lead to lagging in later rounds.
This clash features a classic striker‐vs‐grappler archetype. Oleksiejczuk’s knockout proclivity will be tested against Meerschaert’s submission arsenal. If the Pole can keep the fight upright and explosive, he’ll dictate terms. Conversely, Meerschaert will seek to drag Oleksiejczuk into deep waters, hunting chokes and armbars in the clinch and on the mat. Fans should expect a high‐pace start and pivotal grappling exchanges that decide this must‐see middleweight showdown.
Betting Odds and Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
As of August 4, 2025, the betting market firmly favors Michal Oleksiejczuk to secure another highlight-reel finish. Here are the key head-to-head odds across major sportsbooks:
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (Favorite)
- FanDuel: -280
- DraftKings: -245
- BetOnline.ag: -205
- BetRivers: -295
- Gerald Meerschaert (Underdog)
- BetRivers: +215
- FanDuel: +200
- DraftKings: +200
- BetOnline.ag: +175
The gap between the favorite and underdog is stark: Oleksiejczuk is favored by roughly 3-to-1 on most books, while Meerschaert carries an underdog tag around +200 or better. If you believe in Oleksiejczuk’s dynamic knockout power, the best line to lock in is BetOnline.ag’s -205. If you prefer to back Meerschaert’s grappling pedigree, BetRivers’ +215 offers the most generous payout.
Odds History & Line Movement
A close look at the odds history reveals significant swings over the past week:
Michal Oleksiejczuk
- FanDuel opened at -295 (Aug. 3) and has moved to -280, indicating light support fading on the favorite.
- DraftKings dropped from -298 (Jul. 31) to -245, another sign of money against the chalk.
- BetOnline.ag weakened Oleksiejczuk’s line from -270 to -205 in increments, showing sharp action on Meerschaert.
- BetRivers has held steady at -295, bucking the overall trend.
Gerald Meerschaert
- BetOnline.ag’s underdog line slid from +230 (Jul. 31) to +175, a substantial 55-cent swing.
- DraftKings moved from +240 to +200, reinforcing the heavy backing for “GM3.”
- FanDuel trimmed Meerschaert from +220 to +200, while BetRivers opened directly at +215.
Overall, the market momentum favors Gerald Meerschaert. Despite being the underdog on paper, significant bet volume and sharp money have shortened his odds dramatically.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at the best available lines today, here’s what you’d take home:
- Michal Oleksiejczuk at -280 (FanDuel): Profit of $357, total return $1,357.
- Gerald Meerschaert at +215 (BetRivers): Profit of $2,150, total return $3,150.
In plain terms, a $1,000 wager on Meerschaert at +215 delivers more than double your money back. The implied probabilities—around 74% for Oleksiejczuk and 32% for Meerschaert—reflect the consensus that the Pole’s striking edge outweighs the veteran’s grappling, although the line movement suggests sharp bettors expect an upset.
Best Sportsbook to Bet
• To back the favorite, BetOnline.ag (-205) offers the top price on Oleksiejczuk.
• To back the underdog, BetRivers (+215) provides the juiciest payout on Meerschaert.
Whether you believe in Michal’s one-punch power or Gerald’s suffocating submissions, the current market provides clear paths to maximize your edge. Keep an eye on further line shifts as fight night approaches—this middleweight showdown is already generating serious wagering interest.
AI Pick: Gerald Meerschaert
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Gerald Meerschaert, or see all the AI picks for Du Plessis vs Chimaev. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
