King Green vs Diego Ferreira: UFC 319 Odds & AI Pick

King Green vs Diego Ferreira Fight Analysis

Introduction

The King Green vs Diego Ferreira lightweight showdown is set to light up the United Center in Chicago on Saturday, August 17, 2025, as part of the Preliminary Card for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev. Fight night officially kicks off at 8:00 PM CT, with this pivotal clash expected to hit the Octagon at approximately 9:30 PM CT (2:30 AM UTC). Both veterans bring contrasting styles and career arcs to this lightweight matchup, making it one of the must-watch bouts on the preliminary slate.

Diego Ferreira, a seasoned Brazilian contender, enters as the favorite across major sportsbooks. Current odds from FanDuel sit at -180, with BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, and BetRivers offering similar lines between -170 and -200 in Ferreira’s favor. Ferreira, 40, holds a professional record of 19–6–0 and is known for his well-rounded skill set: 5 wins by knockout, 7 by submission, and a significant striking accuracy of 41%. Despite a recent unanimous decision loss to Grant Dawson in January 2025, “The Brazilian Bomber” remains a dangerous opponent capable of ending fights early or grinding out victories over three full rounds.

On the other side of the cage, King Green is positioned as the underdog, with odds ranging from +135 to +170 depending on the bookmaker. The 38-year-old American has amassed a 32–17–1 record, featuring 11 knockouts and 9 submissions. Green’s striking is both accurate (53% significant strike accuracy) and defensive (62% sig strike defense), and he boasts a formidable takedown defense of 74%. After a swift 33-second KO victory over Grant Dawson in October 2023, King has suffered two stoppage losses in his last five outings, making this bout a critical juncture in his UFC tenure.

Why This Fight Matters

• Experience vs. Momentum: Ferreira’s veteran savvy vs. Green’s high-output aggression.
• Tactical Contrast: Brazilian Muay Thai and submission pedigree against American wrestling defense and volume striking.
• Betting Implications: Ferreira’s status as favorite suggests confidence in his technical toolkit, while Green’s underdog line offers value for bettors seeking an upset.

As UFC 319’s hotbed of emerging talent and established names converges in Chicago, the King Green vs Diego Ferreira battle embodies the essence of lightweight competition—speed, power, and strategy. Whether you’re backing the seasoned Brazilian to assert his dominance or siding with the underdog American to pull off a shocker, this clash promises fireworks from the opening bell.

Stay tuned for detailed breakdowns on striking matchups, grappling exchanges, and round-by-round predictions as we gear up for what could be one of the most compelling preliminary fights of the year.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for King Green vs Diego Ferreira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Diego “The Brazilian Bomber” Ferreira

Background

• Age: 40
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Well‐rounded MMA with Muay Thai base and slick submission transitions
• UFC Record: 19–6–0

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts):

1. Jan. 18, 2025 – Loss vs Grant Dawson (Decision, Unanimous)
2. May 11, 2024 – Win vs Mateusz Rebecki (KO/TKO, R3 4:51)
3. May 20, 2023 – Win vs Michael Johnson (KO/TKO, R2 1:50)
4. Dec. 18, 2021 – Loss vs Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2 3:26)
5. May 8, 2021 – Loss vs Gregor Gillespie (KO/TKO, R2 4:51)

Strengths

• Submission Arsenal: Seven career submission victories; able to threaten on the mat once the fight hits the ground.
• Finishing Instinct: Four first‐round stoppages and a knack for turning fights with a well‐timed head kick or flying knee.
• Experience & Fight IQ: Over a decade in the UFC; knows how to manage distance, pace himself over three rounds and exploit opponent mistakes.
• Stamina & Durability: Average fight time of 9:46 indicates ability to maintain output deep into later rounds without gas‐outs.

Weaknesses

• Striking Efficiency: Significant strike accuracy sits at 41%, below the lightweight division average; leaves openings when overcommitting.
• Takedown Success: Only 30% takedown accuracy; often resorts to striking exchanges rather than dictating position on the mat.
• Defense vs Heavy Strikers: Sig strike defense at 56% suggests susceptibility to pressure‐punchers who maintain high volume.
• Age & Wear: At 40 years old with 25 professional fights, aging reflexes and past wars may slow reaction times.

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King “Green” Green

Background

• Age: 38
• Country: United States
• Fighting Style: Versatile MMA background blending crisp boxing, high‐pace wrestling, and opportunistic grappling
• UFC Record: 32–17–1

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts):

1. Mar. 8, 2025 – Loss vs Mauricio Ruffy (KO/TKO, R1 2:07)
2. Jul. 27, 2024 – Loss vs Paddy Pimblett (Submission, R1 3:22)
3. Apr. 13, 2024 – Win vs Jim Miller (Decision, Unanimous)
4. Dec. 2, 2023 – Loss vs Jalin Turner (Decision)
5. Oct. 7, 2023 – Win vs Grant Dawson (KO/TKO, R1 0:33)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy & Volume: Lands 53% of his significant strikes and boasts a high pace, overwhelming opponents with flurries.
• Striking Defense: At 62%, he efficiently avoids or blocks incoming strikes, enabling successful counterattacks.
• Elite Takedown Defense: 74% takedown defense forces opponents to keep the fight standing, where Green excels.
• First‐Round Finisher: Eleven first‐round stoppages show explosive power and aggression early in fights.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: With 40% takedown accuracy, he struggles to change levels effectively against strong wrestlers.
• Fight Consistency: A 2–3 slate over his last five bouts highlights vulnerability to submission specialists and heavy hitters.
• Endurance in Deep Waters: Average fight time of 10:51 suggests fewer stoppages but potential fatigue when fights extend past two rounds.
• Chin Durability: Multiple recent stoppage losses indicate he can be tagged by seasoned finishers.

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Head-to-Head Preview
This clash pits Ferreira’s seasoned grappling and finish instinct against Green’s precision striking and lockdown defense. While Ferreira looks to exploit Green’s takedown inconsistency and pressure him into scrambles, Green will seek to keep the fight upright, capitalize on his higher striking accuracy and avoid ground entanglements. Each man’s contrasting strengths and vulnerabilities set the stage for a tactical chess match inside the Octagon.

Betting Odds and Line History

Current Betting Odds

As of August 4, 2025, the King Green vs Diego Ferreira lightweight tilt features a clear favorite in Ferreira and a value-laden underdog in Green. Here are the posted head-to-head odds at major sportsbooks:

• Diego Ferreira (Favorite)

  • FanDuel: -180
  • BetOnline.ag: -200
  • DraftKings: -170 ← Best price for Ferreira
  • BetRivers: -175

• King Green (Underdog)

  • FanDuel: +140
  • BetOnline.ag: +170 ← Best price for Green
  • DraftKings: +142
  • BetRivers: +135

Ferreira’s lines average around –181, while Green’s average sits near +147. The favorite tag belongs to Ferreira across all books, and Green is the clear underdog.

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Line Movement & Market Trends

A look at the BetOnline.ag data illustrates only moderate shifts over the past month:

• Diego Ferreira

  • Opened at –190 (Jul. 18)
  • Drifted to –170 (Jul. 27)
  • Bounced back to –185/–180 by Aug. 3

• King Green

  • Started at +165 (Jul. 18)
  • Briefly improved to +145 (Jul. 27)
  • Settled around +155/+160 heading into fight week

These fluctuations reflect typical sharp-money reactions—early backing for Ferreira softened his price, while sporadic bets on Green created small underrdog pops. No massive swings (>20 points) occurred, signaling a balanced market with steady interest on both sides.

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Best Value & Top Sportsbooks

• To maximize potential return on Ferreira, head to DraftKings (–170).
• To capture the highest underdog upside, BetOnline.ag’s +170 line on Green is the standout.

Both books offer competitive juice, rapid in-play updates, and user-friendly interfaces for live wagering.

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$1,000 Bet Payouts

• Ferreira at –170 (DraftKings):
  • Win pays $588 net profit, $1,588 total return.
• Green at +170 (BetOnline.ag):
  • Win pays $1,700 net profit, $2,700 total return.

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Implied Win Probabilities

Based on these lines, the market suggests roughly:

• Diego Ferreira: ~63% chance to win
• King Green: ~37% chance to win

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By tracking both current odds and subtle line movements, bettors can identify where the clearest edge lies—whether backing the veteran Ferreira at the “softest” favorite price or chasing the underdog Green’s best +170 value.