Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich UFC 319 Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich fight analysis

Event Overview

Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich headlines the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev, set to take place on August 16, 2025, at the renowned United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The fight is slated to begin at 22:00 UTC (5:00 PM CT), kicking off what promises to be a compelling night of flyweight action. As two seasoned veterans collide in the women’s flyweight division (125 lb), fans will get an early glimpse of the grit and technical prowess that define both fighters.

Favorite vs. Underdog

Entering this bout, Karine Silva carries the role of heavy favorite, with sportsbooks listing her at approximately -340 (BetOnline.ag, FanDuel) and -345 (DraftKings). Silva’s imposing record of 18-5-0, including 13 first-round finishes (9 by knockout, 8 by submission), underscores her reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers. In stark contrast, JJ Aldrich arrives as the underdog at +265 (BetOnline.ag), +250 (FanDuel) and +275 (DraftKings). Aldrich’s respectable 14-7-0 record features three knockouts and a reputation for durable, well-rounded striking, but she’ll need to overcome Silva’s elite grappling to emerge victorious in Chicago.

Why This Matchup Matters

This fight represents a pivotal crossroads for both athletes. Silva, ranked #11 in the women’s flyweight division, is looking to rebound after a razor-thin unanimous decision loss to Viviane Araujo in November 2024. A win here would reinforce her status as a top contender and potentially move her closer to a top-five showdown. Aldrich, ranked #14, is riding momentum from a unanimous decision victory over rising prospect Andrea Lee in March 2025, but she’s yet to crack the upper echelon of the division. An upset over Silva would vault Aldrich into the conversation for higher-profile bouts and significantly improve her positioning in the rankings.

Beyond personal stakes, this clash of styles offers a classic striker vs. grappler narrative. Silva’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and submission hunting (50% takedown accuracy, 0% takedown defense conceded) contrast sharply with Aldrich’s superior striking defense (61%) and counter-striking accuracy (47%). Observers will be keen to see if Silva can impose her ground game early or if Aldrich can keep the fight upright and test Silva’s developing stand-up.

With the spotlight on the Early Preliminary Card, Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich is a must-watch scrap that sets the tone for UFC 319. Whether you’re backing the chalk or hunting for value on the dog, this flyweight tilt promises fireworks—both on the feet and on the mat—inside Chicago’s United Center.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Karine Silva: The Submission Powerhouse

Age: 31 | Country: Brazil | Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Record: 18-5-0 (9 KO, 8 Submissions)

Karine Silva burst onto the UFC scene in June 2022 and quickly established herself as one of the Women’s Flyweight division’s most dangerous grapplers. With a 50% takedown accuracy and an astonishing 13 first-round finishes, Silva’s game plan is simple: get the fight to the mat, overwhelm her opponent, and force a tap. Her average fight time of 8:04 underscores her ability to end fights early—often before opponents can mount a meaningful offense.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Nov. 16, 2024: Loss vs. Viviane Araujo (Decision – Unanimous)
• Apr. 27, 2024: Win vs. Ariane Da Silva (Decision – Unanimous)
• Aug. 19, 2023: Win vs. Maryna Moroz (Submission, R1 4:59)
• Jun. 03, 2023: Win vs. Ketlen Souza (Submission, R1 1:45)
• Jun. 04, 2022: Win vs. Poliana Botelho (Submission, R1 4:55)

Silva has won four of her last five, showcasing relentless ground pressure and an ever-growing submission arsenal. Her only recent setback—a unanimous decision loss to Viviane Araujo—came when she was unable to secure takedowns consistently.

J.J. Aldrich: The Durable Striker

Age: 32 | Country: United States | Fighting Style: Striking
Record: 14-7-0 (3 KO, 0 Submissions)

Hailing from Denver, Colorado, J.J. Aldrich relies on crisp boxing, footwork, and heart. She boasts a 47% significant strike accuracy and an elite 61% strike defense, able to avoid or block over half of her adversaries’ power shots. While Aldrich’s first-round finish rate is just 2, her durability and cardio allow her to grind out decisions. With a 68% takedown defense, she can keep fights on the feet against grapplers.

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Mar. 01, 2025: Win vs. Andrea Lee (Decision – Unanimous)
• May 11, 2024: Loss vs. Veronica Hardy (Decision – Unanimous)
• Oct. 07, 2023: Win vs. Montana De La Rosa (Decision – Unanimous)
• Aug. 26, 2023: Win vs. Liang Na (KO/TKO, R2 4:49)
• Mar. 11, 2023: Loss vs. Ariane Lipski (Decision – Unanimous)

Aldrich is 3-2 in her last five, riding momentum from her unanimous decision over Andrea Lee. Her two decision losses came against high-pressure fighters who managed to disrupt her striking rhythm.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Karine Silva

Strengths:

• Elite Grappling: 50% takedown accuracy; constantly hunting submissions
• Finishing Instinct: 72% of UFC wins come via stoppage, 13 in the first round
• Aggressive Pace: Quick starts that force opponents to fight off their back foot

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense (48%): Vulnerable to high-volume counters
• Limited Stand-Up: 39% striking accuracy suggests striking is secondary
• Decision Durability: Struggled to secure takedowns against Viviane Araujo

J.J. Aldrich

Strengths:

• Striking Defense: 61% of significant strikes avoided or blocked
• Striking Accuracy: Lands 47% of her significant strikes—among division leaders
• Takedown Defense: Stops 68% of takedown attempts; keeps fights standing

Weaknesses:

• Low Finish Rate: No submission wins; just two first-round stoppages
• Takedown Offense (27%): Will struggle to impose her own grappling
• Cardio vs. Grappler: Extended ground exchanges could sap her gas tank

This clash pits Silva’s world-class BJJ and relentless finishing against Aldrich’s technical striking and durability, making for a classic “grappler vs. striker” showdown.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Karine Silva (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: -340
  • FanDuel: -340
  • DraftKings: -345

• J.J. Aldrich (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +265
  • FanDuel: +250
  • DraftKings: +275

With Silva installed as a heavy favorite (around -340 to -345) and Aldrich as the underdog (ranging from +250 to +275), there’s a striking gap in payout potential. Silva’s chalk price reflects her high finishing rate and dominant grappling pedigree, while Aldrich’s dog tag rewards bettors willing to back her crisp striking and durability.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• To back Karine Silva, BetOnline.ag or FanDuel at -340 offer the most favorable line.
• To back J.J. Aldrich, DraftKings at +275 provides the highest upside.

Line Movement & Market Reaction

• Karine Silva opened at -360 (BetOnline.ag on July 28) and has shifted to -340.
• J.J. Aldrich opened at +285 (BetOnline.ag on July 28) and is now +265.

This movement indicates a modest influx of support for the underdog. Aldrich’s line shortening from +285 to +265 suggests bettors are finding value in her striking matchup and takedown defense, while Silva’s price moving from -360 to -340 hints at slight profit-taking on the favorite.

Potential Payouts on a $1,000 Bet

• Karine Silva at -340
  • Payout: $1,294 total return (approximately $294 profit)
• J.J. Aldrich at +275 (DraftKings)
  • Payout: $3,750 total return (approximately $2,750 profit)

If you prefer a safer bet, Silva’s price reflects roughly a 77% implied probability of victory. If you’re hunting for an upset, Aldrich’s line implies about a 27% chance to pull off the win.

Summary

• Favorite vs. Underdog Gap: A substantial disparity in odds underscores Silva’s submission firepower versus Aldrich’s status as a durable striker.
• Line Shifts: Money flowing toward Aldrich has trimmed her underdog odds, while Silva has lost a bit of chalk.
• Best Plays: DraftKings for Aldrich at +275; BetOnline.ag or FanDuel for Silva at -340.

Whether you’re locking in a small, likely return on the Brazilian grappling ace or chasing a big payday on the American striker, these odds and historical line movements give you the roadmap to make an informed wager on Karine Silva vs. J.J. Aldrich.