UFC 319: Kai Asakura vs Tim Elliott Odds & AI Pick

Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura Fight Analysis

Event Details

The highly anticipated Flyweight clash between Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura is set to unfold on Saturday, August 17, 2025, as part of the main card at UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev. The fight will take place at the legendary United Center in Chicago, Illinois, with the broadcast scheduled to begin at 02:00 UTC (10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT). Positioned in the heart of the evening’s action, this bout promises fireworks as both competitors look to make a statement in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions.

Betting Odds & Favorites

Heading into fight night, the betting markets have clearly identified a favorite and an underdog:

• Favorite: Kai Asakura

  • American Odds: –320 (Caesars), –340 (DraftKings & FanDuel), –335 (BetRivers)
  • Implied Probability: ~76% (best odds)

• Underdog: Tim Elliott

  • American Odds: +250 (Caesars), +270 (DraftKings), +260 (BetMGM)
  • Implied Probability: ~28% (best odds)

Asakura’s status as the betting favorite reflects the confidence bettors have in his striking power and finishing ability, while Elliott’s underdog line presents a tempting value play for those who believe in his veteran savvy and grappling pedigree.

Why This Fight Matters

• Veteran vs. Rising Threat: At 38 years old, Tim “The Dirty Bird” Elliott brings a wealth of experience, having debuted in the UFC back in May 2012 and compiled a record of 21–13–1. His seasoned wrestling base and submission skills have earned him seven wins via tapout and a reputation as one of the division’s toughest competitors.
• Explosive Finisher: Just 31 years old, Kai “Stormin’” Asakura burst onto the UFC scene with a debut in December 2024 and a stellar overall record of 21–5–0. Boasting 13 knockout victories, a blistering 59% significant strike accuracy, and an eye-popping 12 first-round finishes, Asakura represents a high-level striking threat capable of ending the fight in an instant.
• Styles Make Fights: Elliott’s 47% takedown accuracy and 59% takedown defense suggest he can mix levels and neutralize Asakura’s power, while Asakura’s relentless pace and superior striking defense (38% of strikes defended) will challenge Elliott’s durability and gas tank over three rounds.

What to Watch For

• Early Exchange Dynamics: Will Asakura rush forward with heavy combos to secure a quick finish, or will Elliott stick and move, looking to drag the fight into deeper waters?
• Clinch & Ground Control: Elliott’s wrestling background could prove pivotal if he can stuff takedowns and control Asakura on the mat, minimizing the Japanese star’s knockout arsenal.
• Fight IQ & Endurance: Asakura’s rapid pace versus Elliott’s veteran ring savvy sets up a classic battle of youth and explosiveness against experience and resilience.

This matchup has all the makings of a thrilling flyweight showdown. With Asakura installed as the betting favorite and Elliott armed with a championship-caliber resume, fans and bettors alike should be prepared for a high-stakes, action-packed affair in Chicago this August.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Kai Asakura – “Stormin’”

Age: 31 • Country: Japan • Fighting Style: Pure Striker

Background & Recent Form
Kai Asakura bursts into UFC 319 off a decorated international résumé. His professional record sits at 21–5–0, highlighted by 13 knockout wins and 3 submissions. Asakura made his Octagon debut on December 7, 2024, but was submitted by former title challenger Alexandre Pantoja in Round 2. Before that setback, he carved through the Japanese and Asian MMA scene with a dozen first-round finishes, showcasing explosive power and pinpoint timing.

Last Five Bouts (Overall)

• Win (KO) vs. Takuya Muraoka – R1, 1:12
• Win (TKO) vs. Yuki Motoya – R2, 3:45
• Loss (Submission) vs. Pantoja – R2, 2:05 (UFC Debut)
• Win (KO) vs. Shohei Masumizu – R1, 0:58
• Win (Decision) vs. Marcos Yoshio – R3, 5:00

Strengths

• Explosive Striking: 59% significant strike accuracy—the highest in the division—enables rapid-fire combinations.
• Finishing Instinct: 12 first-round finishes reveal an ability to overwhelm opponents before they settle in.
• Reach Advantage: 69" reach allows him to manage distance and land the first punch with minimal risk.

Weaknesses

• Wrestling Deficit: 0% takedown accuracy and only 57% takedown defense suggest he can be out-grappled by a savvy wrestler.
• Cardio Questions: Average fight time of 7:05 reflects a tendency for short, explosive outings; late-round pace remains untested.
• Defensive Holes: 38% significant strike defense means he absorbs a high volume of clean shots if opponents press forward.

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Tim Elliott – “The Dirty Bird”

Age: 38 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestler

Background & Recent Form
A UFC veteran since May 2012, Tim Elliott has compiled a 21–13–1 overall record. Known for relentless pace, tenacious scrambles, and a slick submission game, he holds 7 wins by tapout and has become a perennial fan favorite. Elliott’s last five UFC bouts have alternated wins and losses, demonstrating his willingness to face rising prospects and proven contenders alike.

Last Five UFC Bouts

• Win (Submission) vs. Sumudaerji – R1, 4:02 (Dec 2023)
• Loss (Submission) vs. Muhammad Mokaev – R3, 3:03 (Oct 2023)
• Win (Decision) vs. Victor Altamirano – R3, 5:00 (Jun 2023)
• Win (Decision) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov – R3, 5:00 (Mar 2022)
• Loss (Decision) vs. Matheus Nicolau – R3, 5:00 (Oct 2021)

Strengths

• Wrestling & Grappling: 47% takedown accuracy and 59% takedown defense give him the tools to control where the fight takes place.
• Cardio & Durability: An average fight time of 12:15 shows he can grind through three rounds and outlast fast starters.
• Experience: At 38, Elliott’s ring IQ and veteran composure often neutralize youthful aggression and fluctuation.

Weaknesses

• Striking Output: 45% significant strike accuracy and only 3 career KO wins underscore a lack of one-punch power.
• Aging Chin: Having absorbed heavy shots across a 16-year career, Elliott may be more susceptible to Asakura’s jabs and hooks.
• Submission Vulnerability: Two of his last three losses came by submission, highlighting occasional lapses in defensive grappling.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Striker vs. Grappler: Asakura will look to keep the fight upright, capitalize on length and power, and avoid Elliott’s level changes.
• Pace & Endurance: Elliott’s cardio edge could become decisive if he survives the opening storm and drags the fight into deep waters.
• Experience vs. Explosiveness: Will Elliott’s veteran savvy neutralize Asakura’s aggression, or will “Stormin’” overwhelm “The Dirty Bird” before he can implement his game plan? This clash of contrasting styles makes for a compelling main-card attraction in Chicago.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into UFC 319, the betting markets have installed a clear favorite and underdog in the Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura showdown:

• Favorite: Kai Asakura
  • American Odds Range: –320 (Caesars) up to –340 (DraftKings & FanDuel)
  • Best Favorite Line: –285 at BetOnline.ag (smallest negative juice)
• Underdog: Tim Elliott
  • American Odds Range: +250 (Caesars & BetOnline.ag) up to +270 (DraftKings)
  • Best Underdog Line: +270 at DraftKings

Asakura’s status as the betting favorite reflects his explosive striking pedigree and high finish rate, while Elliott’s underdog line offers compelling value for bettors who trust his veteran wrestling and cardio edge.

Line Movement & Trends

A look at the odds history highlights some modest swings over the past fortnight:

• Kai Asakura
  • August 1 (BetOnline.ag): –325
  • August 4 (Caesars): –320
  • August 4 (FanDuel/DraftKings): tightened to –340
• Tim Elliott
  • August 1 (BetOnline.ag): +225
  • August 4 (Caesars): +250
  • August 4 (DraftKings): briefly extended to +275, then settled at +270

These slight shifts indicate that early money favored Asakura, pushing the line down for him, while savvy bettors have recently gravitated toward Elliott’s value proposition, causing his line to inch upward.

Best Sportsbooks to Target

• For Betting the Favorite (Asakura): BetOnline.ag’s –285 offers the lowest juice on Asakura.
• For Betting the Underdog (Elliott): DraftKings’ +270 gives the highest payout potential on Elliott.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you had to place a $1,000 wager today:

• Betting on Kai Asakura at –320 (Caesars):
  You would receive $1,312.50 back if he wins.
  Implied Win Probability: ~76%

• Betting on Tim Elliott at +270 (DraftKings):
  You would receive $3,700 back if he pulls off the upset.
  Implied Win Probability: ~27%

Takeaways for Bettors

• Value on Elliott? The veteran’s underdog line has firmed up, suggesting sharp action. His wrestling can neutralize Asakura’s striking if he gets takedowns.
• Confidence in Asakura? Even with slight line movement, Asakura remains a heavy favorite for good reason—his power and finishing percentage are elite.
• Shop for Lines: Small differences between books can have a big impact on your long-term ROI. Always compare the best negative number on the favorite and the biggest positive number on the underdog before clicking “Bet.”

Whether you’re chasing the upside of a Tim Elliott upset or backing the explosive Kai Asakura to steamroll his opponent, the current odds deliver clear paths for both conservative and contrarian bettors alike.