Hooper vs Hernandez UFC 319 Betting Odds & Analysis

Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez fight analysis

Introduction

On Saturday, August 17, 2025, Chase Hooper and Alexander Hernandez will square off on the Preliminary Card of UFC 319 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The bout is scheduled to begin at approximately 10:30 PM CT, following the early prelims. This lightweight showdown pits a surging young grappler against a seasoned striker looking to reestablish himself in a crowded division. With Hooper installed as the heavy favorite and Hernandez widely pegged as the underdog, fight fans and bettors alike should expect a fascinating clash of styles—and an intriguing line movement in the lead-up to fight night.

When & Where

• Event: UFC 319 – Du Plessis vs Chimaev
• Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL, United States
• Date: Saturday, August 17, 2025
• Prelims Start: 9:00 PM CT (approx.)
• Hooper vs Hernandez Kickoff: ~10:30 PM CT

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Chase Hooper (Favorite, -258 to -280)

• Record: 16–3–1
• Style: Grappler
• Age: 25
• Strengths: Elite submission offense, length, relentless pace
• Notable Trends: Hooper has won five straight, including four finishes, and boasts a 55% takedown defense and 34% takedown accuracy. His 52% significant strike accuracy underscores an evolving stand-up game that complements his wrestling pedigree.

Alexander Hernandez (Underdog, +210 to +240)

• Record: 16–8–0
• Style: MMA all-around striker
• Age: 32
• Strengths: Power punch, veteran savvy, durability
• Notable Trends: Hernandez has split his last four outings, securing back-to-back unanimous and split decision wins earlier this year. With seven first-round finishes on his résumé and a 41% strike accuracy, he thrives on pressure striking and capitalizing on mistakes.

Betting Outlook

At most major sportsbooks—DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, and BetOnline.ag—Hooper commands significant money, reflecting both his submission prowess and upward trajectory in the 155-pound ranks. Hernandez’s +210 to +240 line signals value for bettors willing to back the veteran’s power and experience to weather Hooper’s grappling storm and land decisive blows.

Key Points for Bettors

• Hooper’s Grappling Edge: With eight submission wins and a willingness to chase takedowns relentlessly, he can neutralize Hernandez’s striking if he closes the distance early.
• Hernandez’s Striking Power: Known for heavy hands and seven career KOs, a well-timed counter or wild exchange could turn the tide quickly.
• Pace & Cardio: Both athletes average just over 10 minutes per fight, suggesting a potential for deep waters and late-round fireworks if neither score an early finish.

As we count down to UFC 319, this lightweight scrap carries significant implications: a third straight win would firmly plant Hooper in the divisional conversation, while Hernandez aims to snap a two-fight skid and revive his ascent toward top-15 contention. Stay tuned for our full breakdown of styles, tactics, and round-by-round projections in the sections that follow.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

In this lightweight clash, prospects collide with experience as 25-year-old grappler Chase Hooper meets veteran striker Alexander Hernandez. Below, we break down each athlete’s background, recent form and key strengths and vulnerabilities.

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Chase Hooper Profile

Age & Origin:

• 25 years old, Enumclaw, United States
• Fighting Style: Grappler
• UFC Debut: December 14, 2019

Physical Attributes:

• Height: 6’1″ (73″)
• Reach: 6’2″ (74″); Leg Reach: 41″
• Weight: 156 lb

Recent Form (5 Fights):

1. Win vs. Jim Miller – Decision (Unanimous), Apr. 12, 2025
2. Win vs. Clay Guida – Submission (Arm-triangle), Dec. 7, 2024
3. Win vs. Viacheslav Borshchev – Submission (Anaconda), May 11, 2024
4. Win vs. Jordan Leavitt – Submission (Arm-triangle), Nov. 18, 2023
5. Win vs. Nick Fiore – Decision (Unanimous), May 20, 2023

Strengths:

• Elite Submission Offense: 8 submission wins; 55% takedown defense to nullify counters; relentless wrestling pace.
• Finishing Instincts: 6 first-round finishes; seven total stoppages inside two rounds.
• Striking Accuracy: 52% significant strike accuracy shows growing stand-up comfort, supported by long reach.
• Cardio & Workrate: Average fight time of 10:09 with sustained pressure and high output.

Weaknesses:

• Strike Defense Vulnerability: 39% significant strike defense indicates he absorbs a high volume of strikes, especially early.
• Moderate Takedown Offense: 34% takedown accuracy—while sufficient—can falter against elite wrestlers.
• Experience Gap: Only three professional losses but still building fight-IQ against seasoned veterans.

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Alexander Hernandez Profile

Age & Origin:

• 32 years old, St. Louis, United States
• Fighting Style: All-around Striker (MMA)
• UFC Debut: March 3, 2018

Physical Attributes:

• Height: 5’9″ (69″)
• Reach: 6’0″ (72″); Leg Reach: 39.5″
• Weight: 156 lb

Recent Form (5 Fights):

1. Win vs. Kurt Holobaugh – Decision (Unanimous), Mar. 15, 2025
2. Win vs. Austin Hubbard – Decision (Split), Oct. 5, 2024
3. Loss vs. Damon Jackson – Decision (Split), Apr. 6, 2024
4. Loss vs. Bill Algeo – Decision (Unanimous), Oct. 7, 2023
5. Win vs. Jim Miller – Decision (Unanimous), Feb. 18, 2023

Strengths:

• Striking Defense: 57% significant strike defense allows him to avoid heavy shots and counter effectively.
• Takedown Defense: 72% defense rate neutralizes wrestling-first opponents, keeping the fight standing.
• Power & Durability: 6 career KOs; seven first-round finishes demonstrate one-punch potential.
• Veteran Savvy: Competing since 2018, well-versed in five-round pacing and late-fight adjustments.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Accuracy: 41% significant strike accuracy—below elite level—can lead to missed counters and vulnerability to feints.
• Submission Production: Only 2 submission victories; 36% takedown accuracy suggests grappling is a secondary tool.
• Consistency Issues: Alternating wins and losses in recent outings; has yet to string together more than two consecutive wins since 2024.

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By contrasting Hooper’s relentless grappling and improving stand-up with Hernandez’s veteran striking craft and countering acumen, this matchup promises a classic style-versus-style battle. Hooper will look to grind and chain wrestle, while Hernandez aims to keep range, capitalize on defensive lapses, and land a fight-changing shot.

Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of August 4, sportsbooks have Chase Hooper installed as a heavy favorite over Alexander Hernandez in this lightweight showdown:

• Chase Hooper (Favorite)

  • DraftKings: -258
  • FanDuel: -280
  • BetOnline.ag: -280
  • BetRivers: -278

• Alexander Hernandez (Underdog)

  • DraftKings: +210
  • FanDuel: +210
  • BetOnline.ag: +240
  • BetRivers: +210

The gap between Hooper’s shortest line (–258) and Hernandez’s longest (+240) is 498 points, underscoring how strongly oddsmakers and bettors favor the young grappler.

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Line Movement & Historical Trends

Examining the BetOnline.ag market—where we have clear timestamped shifts—reveals:

• Chase Hooper

  • July 18: –260
  • July 31: –275
  • August 4: –280

• Alexander Hernandez

  • July 18: +220
  • July 31: +235
  • August 4: +240

Both fighters’ lines have drifted slightly: Hooper’s odds have shortened further into favorite territory (from –260 to –280), while Hernandez’s underdog payout has broadened (from +220 to +240). This movement suggests sharper money is backing Hooper, pushing the line more in his favor as fight night approaches.

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Best Sportsbooks for Value

• For Betting Hooper: DraftKings offers the shallowest favorite line at –258, meaning you risk less to win $100.
• For Betting Hernandez: BetOnline.ag posts the largest underdog payout at +240, maximizing your profit on a successful upset.

If you believe in Hooper’s submission arsenal and relentless pace, DraftKings is the optimal home. If you’re hoping Hernandez catches Hooper on the feet with a counter or two, BetOnline.ag delivers the juiciest line.

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Hypothetical $1,000 Bets & Payouts

Betting on Chase Hooper at –280

• Wager: $1,000
• Profit: $357.14
• Total Payout: $1,357.14
• Implied Win Probability: ~74%

Betting on Alexander Hernandez at +210

• Wager: $1,000
• Profit: $2,100
• Total Payout: $3,100
• Implied Win Probability: ~32%

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What This Means for Bettors

• Heavy Favorite Lean: Public money and sharp action favor Hooper’s grappling supremacy. The line contraction on Hooper signals confidence that he’ll secure takedowns, control top position, and hunt submissions.
• Underdog Upside: Hernandez’s line drift to +240 indicates fewer bettors backing the veteran, but offers maximum return for those believing he can keep it standing, out-strike Hooper, and land a fight-ending shot.

With significant line movement pushing both sides further apart, now is the time to lock in the odds that best suit your prediction. Whether you back the chalk or chase the underdog, understanding this market evolution is key to maximizing value on fight night.