UFC 317: McKinney vs Borshchev Odds, Analysis & Pick

Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev fight analysis

Event Details

When: Sunday, June 29, 2025 (Preliminary Card starts at 7:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET)
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira – Preliminary Card (Lightweight Division)

The lightweight clash between Terrance McKinney and Viacheslav Borshchev is slated to kick off the UFC 317 preliminary card on June 29, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. McKinney and Borshchev will enter the cage under the bright lights of what is widely regarded as one of the promotion’s premier venues, setting the stage for an explosive showdown that promises fireworks in the 155-pound weight class.

Fighters at a Glance

• Terrance McKinney (Red Corner)
  • Record: 16-7-0
  • UFC Debut: June 12, 2021
  • Age: 30 | Height: 70″ | Reach: 73.5″
  • Style: Well-rounded MMA with 8 KOs and 8 submissions
  • UFC Stats: 15 first-round finishes, 02:57 average fight time, 56% significant strike accuracy, 78% takedown defense

• Viacheslav Borshchev (Blue Corner)
  • Record: 8-5-1
  • UFC Debut: January 15, 2022
  • Age: 33 | Height: 71″ | Reach: 69″
  • Style: Kickboxer with 6 knockout victories
  • UFC Stats: 3 first-round finishes, 11:06 average fight time, 54% significant strike accuracy, 0% takedown offense

Betting Odds & Favoritism

The oddsmakers have made Terrance McKinney the clear favorite heading into this matchup. At the time of writing:

• McKinney: –200 (FanDuel) to –195 (BetRivers)
• Borshchev: +150 (Caesars) to +155 (BetRivers)

This line suggests that McKinney’s relentless pace and finishing ability give him the edge in the minds of bettors and bookmakers alike. McKinney has finished an astonishing 15 of his 16 wins in the first round, and his versatility—boasting both eight knockouts and eight submissions—makes him a dynamic threat. Meanwhile, Viacheslav Borshchev enters as the underdog, carrying the power to stop opponents but lacking McKinney’s grappling credentials and pace. Borshchev’s six KO victories hint at sudden explosiveness, yet his 0% takedown accuracy and 43% takedown defense suggest stylistic vulnerabilities if McKinney decides to wrestle.

What to Expect

This bout shapes up as a classic striker vs. grappler narrative. McKinney’s wrestling pedigree and sub-heavy arsenal contrast sharply with Borshchev’s kickboxing roots. Should McKinney secure early takedowns or apply relentless pressure, he can exploit Borshchev’s underdeveloped ground defense. Conversely, if Borshchev stays at range and lands his powerful leather, an upset is well within reach.

As the prelims unfold at UFC 317, this opening lightweight attraction carries significant implications for both men. A win for McKinney would reinforce his title contention trajectory, while a victory for Borshchev could catapult him into deeper playoff conversations. Fans and bettors should prepare for an all-out war under the Vegas lights.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Terrance McKinney (Red Corner)

Age: 30
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Well‐rounded MMA (8 KOs, 8 submissions)
UFC Record: 16-7-0

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Feb. 1, 2025: Win vs Tamia Hasohitsuku – KO/TKO (R1, 2:01)
• May 11, 2024: Loss vs Esteban Ribovics – KO/TKO (R1, 0:37)
• Oct. 14, 2023: Win vs Brendon Marotte – KO/TKO (R1, 0:20)
• Aug. 12, 2023: Win vs Mike Breeden – KO/TKO (R1, 1:25)
• July 15, 2023: Loss vs Nazim Sadykhov – Submission (R2, 1:07)

Terrance McKinney has become one of the UFC’s most feared fast‐finishers, boasting 15 first‐round stoppages and a blistering 02:57 average fight time. He debuted in June 2021 and quickly established himself as a knockout artist and submission threat in the lightweight division.

Viacheslav Borshchev (Blue Corner)

Age: 33
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Kickboxer (6 KOs)
UFC Record: 8-5-1

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):

• Feb. 8, 2025: Loss vs Tom Nolan – Decision (Unanimous)
• Aug. 24, 2024: Win vs James Llontop – Decision (Split)
• May 11, 2024: Loss vs Chase Hooper – Submission (R2, 3:00)
• Nov. 11, 2023: Loss vs Nazim Sadykhov – Decision (Majority)
• May 20, 2023: Win vs Hayisaer Maheshate – KO/TKO (R2, 2:37)

Viacheslav Borshchev brings six career knockouts into the Octagon, relying on his striking pedigree and kickboxing background. He debuted in January 2022 and has alternated wins and losses, demonstrating power but lacking consistency against grapplers and well‐rounded opponents.

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Strengths & Weaknesses

Terrance McKinney

Strengths:

• Finishing Prowess: 94% of wins by knockout or submission (15/16 finishes).
• Wrestling & Takedown Defense: 78% takedown defense allows him to dictate where the fight takes place.
• Balanced Striking: 56% significant strike accuracy makes his stand‐up dangerous.
• Versatility: Equally comfortable pursuing submissions or ground‐and‐pound.

Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense: 48% significant strike defense — vulnerable to precision counters if he overcommits.
• Early KO Vulnerability: Two of his three UFC losses came by first‐round knockout/submission, indicating a high‐risk style.
• Takedown Offense: 37% takedown accuracy is solid but not elite; against seasoned wrestlers he may struggle to implement his gameplan.

Viacheslav Borshchev

Strengths:

• Power Striking: 6 knockout victories and 54% significant strike accuracy underline one‐punch danger.
• Durability on Feet: 57% strike defense suggests he can weather moderate offense and counter effectively.
• Mean Streak: Experienced stand‐and‐bang fighter who thrives in early exchanges.

Weaknesses:

• Grappling Deficiencies: 0% takedown accuracy and 43% takedown defense make him highly susceptible to wrestlers.
• Ground Game: No submission victories and a loss by submission to Chase Hooper highlight a glaring vulnerability.
• Pace & Cardio: 11:06 average fight time shows he often goes deeper, but may gas if forced to work off his back against a relentless grappler like McKinney.

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This clash pits McKinney’s explosive, fast‐finishing style and sturdy takedown defense against Borshchev’s power‐punching and kickboxing pedigree. Fans can expect McKinney to either press early and hunt takedowns or trade heavy leather, while Borshchev must keep the fight standing and land his power shots to pull off the upset.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

• Terrance McKinney (Favorite):

  • FanDuel: –200
  • DraftKings: –185
  • Caesars: –175
  • BetMGM: –175
  • BetRivers: –195
  • BetOnline.ag: –172

• Viacheslav Borshchev (Underdog):

  • FanDuel: +154
  • DraftKings: +154
  • Caesars: +150
  • BetMGM: +145
  • BetRivers: +155
  • BetOnline.ag: +147

Terrance McKinney is the clear favorite across every major U.S. sportsbook, with moneyline odds averaging around –185. Viacheslav Borshchev sits as the underdog, typically priced between +145 and +155. The widest gap is with FanDuel, where McKinney is –200 and Borshchev is +154, giving McKinney roughly a 66% implied chance and Borshchev about 39%.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For McKinney: BetOnline.ag offers the shortest favorite line at –172, meaning you risk less to back the favorite.
• For Borshchev: BetMGM’s +145 is the best underdog line, maximizing payout on a Borshchev upset.

Line Movement & Notable Swings

• McKinney: Opened around –200 at BetOnline.ag on June 16, briefly dipped to –220 on June 17–18, then eased back to –172 by June 24. This swing suggests early sharp-money support on McKinney, then some profit-taking as public bets came in.
• Borshchev: Opened as high as +185 on June 16 (BetOnline.ag), drifted down steadily to +147 by June 24. The steady slide indicates growing confidence from bettors that McKinney’s pace and wrestling will control the fight. Caesars and DraftKings saw similar movement: Caesars from +160 → +150, DraftKings from +160 → +154.

These shifts show the sharps and early bettors loading up on McKinney, then later bettors catching those lines. Underdog backers have lost some value as the fight date approaches.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet & Payouts

• $1,000 on McKinney at –185: Payout of approximately $1,540 (your $1,000 stake + $540 profit).
• $1,000 on Borshchev at +150: Payout of approximately $2,500 (your $1,000 stake + $1,500 profit).

Implied Probabilities

• McKinney’s average odds (~–185) imply a winning probability around 65–67%.
• Borshchev’s average odds (~+150) imply a winning probability around 39–40%.

This betting market tells us that Terrance McKinney is heavily favored to dictate this lightweight showdown, while Viacheslav Borshchev remains a live underdog—offering value for bettors seeking a bigger payday should the Russian striker land the upset.