Sedriques Dumas vs Jackson McVey Fight Analysis
The highly anticipated middleweight clash between Sedriques Dumas and Jackson McVey is set to kick off the Early Preliminary Card of UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira on Saturday, June 28, 2025, at the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Doors open early, but combat fans won’t want to miss this action-packed opener, with the cage door swinging shut at approximately 10:30 PM ET (7:30 PM PT).
Fight Overview
- Event: UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira
- Date & Time: June 28, 2025 • 10:30 PM ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Card Position: Early Preliminary
- Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lb)
The bout features a matchup between two unbeaten fighters stepping into the octagon for the first time under the UFC banner. While both men are making their UFC debuts, their backgrounds and paths to this moment couldn’t be more different.
The Favorite: Jackson McVey (Blue Corner)
- Odds: Ranging from –140 to –160 (American) across major books
- Record: 0–0–0 (Pro)
- Age: 26 • St. Paul, Minnesota
- Attributes: N/A (UFC stat sheet has yet to populate numbers)
Despite lacking any professional record—Amateur success or standout regional performances have put Jackson McVey in position as the betting favorite. Undefeated on paper, McVey enters the Octagon with a wave of momentum behind him. FanDuel currently lists him anywhere from –150 to –160, with Caesars pegging him at –160, reflecting strong public confidence that his skill set will translate immediately at the UFC level.
The Underdog: Sedriques Dumas (Red Corner)
- Odds: +115 to +135 (American) depending on the bookmaker
- Record: 10–3–0 (Pro)
- Age: 29 • Pensacola, Florida
- Style: Kickboxer
- UFC Debut: March 11, 2023
By contrast, seasoned Sedriques Dumas comes in as the underdog, priced between +118 (FanDuel/BetRivers) and +135 (Caesars). With ten professional wins—four by knockout and two by submission—Dumas has shown finishing prowess and a well-rounded arsenal. His UFC tenure, though marked by a couple of setbacks against top-tier opponents like Nursultan Ruziboev and Michal Oleksiejczuk, also features key victories over the likes of Denis Tiuliulin and Abu Azaitar.
Why This Matchup Matters
- Debut vs. Veteran: McVey’s debut hype contrasts sharply with Dumas’s experience under the bright lights. Will the newcomer’s tools surprise a tested UFC competitor?
- Styles Collide: A pure kickboxer in Dumas meets an athletic unknown in McVey. The clash of measured striking and unanswered potential makes for compelling intrigue.
- Standings Implications: A win propels either fighter up the middleweight ladder. For Dumas, a victory could re-ignite his UFC campaign. For McVey, it cements his place as a prospect to watch.
As the early preliminary card unfolds, all eyes will be on these two men to see whether McVey’s hype is for real or if Dumas’s veteran savvy will prove decisive. With the betting lines favoring the debuting McVey, there’s plenty of value for bettors considering a lean toward the experienced underdog. Stay locked in for a technical striking battle, a potential ground scramble, and the first footprints either leaves on UFC mats. Let’s dive deeper into the keys to victory, fighter breakdowns, and smart betting angles in the sections to follow.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sedriques Dumas vs Jackson McVey can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.
Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles
In this section, we dive into the backgrounds, recent form, and stylistic strengths and weaknesses of Sedriques Dumas and Jackson McVey, setting the stage for their middleweight showdown.
Sedriques Dumas (Red Corner)
Age: 29
Country: United States (Pensacola, FL)
Fighting Style: Kickboxer
UFC Record: 10-3-0 (4 KOs, 2 Subs)
Recent Form
Over his last five outings, Dumas has alternated wins and losses against quality opponents:
- Apr 2025 • Loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk (KO, R1, 2:49)
- Aug 2024 • Win vs. Denis Tiuliulin (Decision – Unanimous)
- Mar 2024 • Loss to Nursultan Ruziboev (KO, R1, 3:18)
- Oct 2023 • Win vs. Abu Azaitar (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jun 2023 • Win vs. Cody Brundage (Decision – Unanimous)
Dumas has shown resilience, bouncing back from knockout defeats with smart game plans and solid cardio. His four first-round finishes speak to explosive power early on, but two early KO losses highlight occasional defensive lapses.
Key Strengths
- Striking Accuracy (45%) & Defense (56%): Dumas lands nearly half of his significant strikes while defending over half incoming shots—an above-average profile at 185 lbs.
- Finish Instinct: With six finishes in ten wins, he balances knockout power and submissions, keeping opponents guessing.
- Experience & Fight IQ: Five-fight UFC tenure means he’s comfortable under pressure and adapts mid-fight.
Notable Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense (40%): Opponents have landed 60% of takedown attempts, indicating vulnerability to wrestling specialists.
- Takedown Offense (36%): While competent, he can struggle to dictate ground phases against high-level grapplers.
- Early-Round Vulnerability: Two KO/TKO losses in round one suggest occasional lapses in defense during initial exchanges.
Jackson McVey (Blue Corner)
Age: 26
Country: United States (St. Paul, MN)
Fighting Style: Prospect (unified regional striking & wrestling base)
UFC Record: Debuting (0-0-0 pro)
Recent Form
McVey steps into the Octagon without a professional record, earning favorite status through a decorated amateur and regional career (undefeated in reported appearances). His lack of official pro outings makes hard data scarce, but scouts praise his athleticism, work rate, and composure under fire.
Key Strengths
- Unknown Quantity: Fresh legs and no film for opponents to dissect can make McVey’s attack unpredictable.
- Athleticism & Youth: At 26, he boasts peak reflexes, quick footwork, and solid gas tank—traits that oftentimes trouble seasoned fighters.
- Public Confidence: Odds as high as –160 (Caesars) reflect strong belief in his upside and in-gym accolades.
Potential Weaknesses
- Zero Professional Experience: Transitioning to the UFC’s pace and power is a steep learning curve; nerves and pacing are untested.
- Unproven Ground Game: Without recorded takedown stats or submission wins, his wrestling and jiu-jitsu remain questions.
- Pressure Handling: The bright lights of a major UFC debut can expose even the most talented prospects.
Tactical Matchup Summary
- Striking vs. Unpredictability: Dumas’s proven 45% accuracy and varied finishing arsenal face McVey’s blank slate of striking tendencies.
- Experience Edge: Dumas has five UFC contests under his belt; McVey must adapt quickly or risk being out-paced.
- Wrestling Factor: If McVey can exploit Dumas’s 40% takedown defense, he could secure top control and nullify the kickboxer’s power. Conversely, Dumas will look to keep the fight standing and land his crisp combinations early.
This collision of a seasoned kickboxer against a hype-driven debutant creates an electrifying chess match. Dumas must leverage his guile and defensive prowess, while McVey needs to capitalize on the unknown and test his resilience. Bettors will weigh experience against potential, making this a can’t-miss middleweight tilt on the early prelims.
Odds & Betting History
In this section, we’ll break down the current betting lines, review line movement, identify the best sportsbooks for each side, and show your $1,000 payout and implied probabilities for both fighters.
Current Betting Odds
| Fighter | Best Price | Other Prices | |-----------------------|---------------|-------------------------------| | Jackson McVey | –140 (BetMGM) | –150 (FanDuel), –155 (DK), –152 (BetRivers), –154 (BetOnline), –160 (Caesars) | | Sedriques Dumas | +135 (Caesars)| +118 (FanDuel/BetRivers), +115 (BetMGM), +130 (DK), +134 (BetOnline) |
- Favorite: Jackson McVey carries the heavy line as the betting favorite.
- Underdog: Sedriques Dumas is the +115 to +135 underdog across books.
- Best Books:
- To back McVey, shop at BetMGM where he is –140 (smallest juice).
- To back Dumas, Caesars offers the juiciest +135.
Line Movement & Swings
Significant swings over the last 48 hours highlight where sharp money and public action have landed:
-
Caesars (Dumas):
- June 22: Opened as a –150 favorite
- June 24: Drifted all the way to +135 underdog
- Net swing: 285 points — one of the biggest flips you’ll see on a UFC prelim.
-
Caesars (McVey):
- June 22: Opened at +125 (underdog)
- June 24: Hit –160 (heavy favorite)
- Net swing: 285 points in the opposite direction.
-
FanDuel (McVey):
- June 23 (4PM): –125
- June 24 (8AM): –150
-
FanDuel (Dumas):
- June 23 (4PM): –102
- June 24 (8AM): +118
These line moves suggest both smart-money sharp action on McVey and significant public fade on Dumas, flipping him from a favorite to an underdog in mere days.
$1,000 Payout & Implied Probabilities
If you had to put $1,000 on either fighter today, here’s what you’d get back and how the market views their chances:
Jackson McVey at –140 (BetMGM)
- Profit: $714
- Total Return: $1,714
- Implied Probability: ~58%
Sedriques Dumas at +135 (Caesars)
- Profit: $1,350
- Total Return: $2,350
- Implied Probability: ~43%
What This Means for Bettors
- Value on the Underdog: A $1,000 wager on Dumas at +135 nearly doubles your money. If you believe his experience and finishing ability can shine, Caesars is your go-to.
- Safest Lean on the Favorite: McVey’s best negative price (–140) at BetMGM requires less risk to win $714. If you trust the hype and youth movement, that line represents lower variance.
- Watch the Movement: The massive swings at Caesars indicate potential sharp vs. public conflict. Keep an eye on any further adjustments leading into fight night—especially if a late injury scare or insider news breaks.
By shopping around and understanding these swings, you can pinpoint where the true edges lie and maximize your returns on fight night.
AI Pick: Sedriques Dumas
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Sedriques Dumas, or see all the AI picks for Topuria vs Oliveira. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
