Winner: Jhonata Diniz
Confidence Score: 90Jhonata Diniz is the clear favorite based on all available data and matchup trends. He is 8-1 as a pro, with 7 wins by knockout and 6 first-round finishes, showing elite finishing ability for the heavyweight division. His striking stats are impressive with a 53% significant strike accuracy and 50% defense, and he has solid physical attributes for the division (6'4", 253 lbs, 79.5" reach, 41" leg reach). Diniz's kickboxing background translates well to MMA, and his 69% takedown defense suggests he is hard to ground. In contrast, Alvin Hines is making his UFC debut at age 33, with no pro record, no UFC stats, and no proven high-level experience. Historically, debuting heavyweights with no prior pro fights or finishes have an extremely low win rate when facing established finishers like Diniz. There is no evidence of Hines' ability to withstand elite striking or perform under UFC lights. Unless new information emerges about Hines' background, Diniz is a very strong, data-driven pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Topuria vs Oliveira can be found on the Topuria vs Oliveira event page.