Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Fight Odds & Analysis

Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Fight Analysis

Fight Details

The Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama showdown is set to light up the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez on Saturday, August 9, 2025, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Fans worldwide can tune in at 8:00 PM UTC (1:00 PM PT) as two rising bantamweights collide in a pivotal clash that could reshape both fighters’ trajectories in the division.

Venue & Event Context

• Event Name: UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV, United States
• Date & Time: August 9, 2025 • Preliminary Card starts at 8:00 PM UTC
• Card Placement: This bout opens the preliminary broadcast, setting the tone for an evening of high-octane bantamweight action.

The Favorite: Elijah Smith

• Record: 8-1-0
• Age: 22
• Height / Reach: 5'9" (69") / 71"
• Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling base with emerging striking
• UFC Debut: February 15, 2025
• Odds: -600 (BetOnline.ag)

Despite his youth, Elijah Smith has already made waves in the Octagon. A unanimous decision victory over veteran Vince Morales in his UFC debut showcased his relentless pace, superior takedown ability (53% accuracy), and improving striking (42% significant strike accuracy). Smith’s defense is solid—he thwarts 67% of takedown attempts and avoids nearly half of incoming power shots (48% sig-strike defense). At just 22 years old, he combines youthful gas tank with technical wrestling that has analysts calling him the heavy favorite to secure a second straight UFC win.

The Underdog: Toshiomi Kazama

• Record: 11-4-0
• Age: 27
• Height / Reach: 5'7" (67") / 69"
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist
• UFC Debut: June 9, 2022
• Odds: +425 (BetOnline.ag)

On the other side, Toshiomi Kazama brings a formidable submission arsenal into the cage. With six career submissions and six first-round finishes, the Japanese grappler has demonstrated lightning-quick transitions and a knack for capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. His average fight time (6:41) highlights his dangerous early-fight offense. However, Kazama’s takedown offense has been underwhelming (13% accuracy), and his stand-up defense has allowed significant strikes (43% defense rate). A win here would underline his growth and resilience after two knockout losses in 2023.

Betting Outlook

• Elijah Smith (-600): Strong wrestler, relentless pace, proven cardio.
• Toshiomi Kazama (+425): Submission ace, explosive starts, must avoid Smith’s wrestling.

This matchup pits Smith’s wrestling and fight control against Kazama’s submission creativity and finishing urgency. Elijah Smith enters as the clear favorite to implement his grappling game plan, while Toshiomi Kazama must strike early and hunt for the arm-triangle or heel hook to shock the 135-pound division. Whether you’re backing the chalk or chasing the underdog payout, this bantamweight encounter promises dynamic grappling exchanges and high stakes for both cage careers.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Overview: Wrestling Meets Submission Mastery

When Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama step into the Octagon on August 9, 2025, fans will witness a classic bantamweight clash of styles. Smith’s relentless wrestling and power will collide with Kazama’s slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and dangerous early offense. Below, we break down each fighter’s background, recent form, and statistical strengths and vulnerabilities.

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Elijah Smith (Red Corner)

Age: 22
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling/Base Striking
Record: 8–1–0

Recent Form

• UFC Debut (Feb. 15, 2025): Unanimous Decision win over Vince Morales (3 rounds)
• Overall Streak: 6-fight win streak following lone early career loss
• Finish Rate: 5 finishes in last 7 bouts (4 KOs, 1 Submission), including 3 first-round stoppages

Statistical Profile

• Takedown Accuracy: 53%
• Takedown Defense: 67%
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 42%
• Significant Strike Defense: 48%
• Average Fight Time: 15:00

Strengths

• Wrestling & Ground Control: Smith’s takedown accuracy (53%) is elite at 135 lb, allowing him to dictate where the fight goes.
• Power & Finishing Instinct: Four career knockouts and three first-round stoppages highlight his ability to close distance and end fights early.
• Cardio & Pace: An average fight time of 15 minutes demonstrates he can maintain pressure over three rounds when the finish doesn’t come early.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense Vulnerability: Allowing significant strikes at a 52% rate (100%–48% defense) means he can be cracked by heavy hitters.
• Submission Experience: With only one career submission, Smith may be susceptible if taken down by a high-level grappler.
• Striking Precision: A 42% accuracy rate indicates that nearly six of every ten strikes miss; wasted energy could open doors for counters.

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Toshiomi Kazama (Blue Corner)

Age: 27
Country: Japan
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Specialist
Record: 11–4–0

Recent Form

• Last UFC Bout (Aug. 10, 2024): Submission win (rear-naked choke) over Charalampos Grigoriou in Round 2
• Prior UFC Results: Two first-round KO/TKO losses in 2023 (against Rinya Nakamura and Garrett Armfield)
• Finishing Profile: Six first-round finishes, six career submissions

Statistical Profile

• Takedown Accuracy: 13%
• Takedown Defense: 67%
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 53%
• Significant Strike Defense: 43%
• Average Fight Time: 6:41

Strengths

• Submission Threat: Six submission victories show his ability to chain transitions and exploit even small grappling openings.
• Early-Fight Firepower: With an average fight time under seven minutes, Kazama often overwhelms opponents before they find their rhythm.
• Striking Precision: A 53% significant strike accuracy indicates crisp, well-timed shots that set up his takedown or scramble entries.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: At 13% accuracy, Kazama must rely on scrambles and counters rather than initiating ground exchanges.
• Striking Defense: Allowing 57% of opponents’ significant strikes suggests he can be hit and hurt if pressured.
• Cardio Concerns: An abbreviated average fight time implies less experience in later rounds, potentially problematic against a wrestler who drags fights into deep waters.

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This stylistic and statistical breakdown shows Elijah Smith will press forward with wrestling and volume striking, while Toshiomi Kazama must land early, secure takedowns off scrambles, and hunt submissions before Smith’s gas tank and power take over.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of the latest odds from BetOnline.ag, the Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama bantamweight contest features a significant disparity:

• Elijah Smith: -600 (Heavy Favorite)
• Toshiomi Kazama: +425 (Underdog)

This pricing makes Smith the clear chalk, with bettors viewing his wrestling and pace as the most probable path to victory. Kazama remains a longshot, relying on his submission acumen and early explosiveness to pull off a shocker.

Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite: Elijah Smith at -600
• Underdog: Toshiomi Kazama at +425

The gap between -600 and +425 highlights market confidence in Smith’s grappling control. A $100 risk on Smith returns approximately $16.70 in profit, whereas a $100 risk on Kazama returns $425, underlining the potential reward for backing the Japanese submission specialist.

Line Movement & Trends

Tracking the line movement since it opened:

• Elijah Smith: Moved from -500 → -600
• Toshiomi Kazama: Drifted from +375 → +425

These shifts indicate that heavier money has flooded in on Smith, causing his price to lengthen. Conversely, Kazama’s odds have ticked upward as bookmakers adjust to the volume of favorite bets. No sudden or extreme swings occurred—this has been a gradual adjustment reflecting bettor confidence rather than a single large wager.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

While multiple sportsbooks may offer slightly varying lines, BetOnline.ag consistently provides competitive odds on Smith and Kazama. Their real-time updates and reputable payout history make them a go-to for UFC fight night bettors looking for stable lines and quick settlements.

Potential Payouts for a $1,000 Bet

• Backing Elijah Smith at -600:
  • Profit ≈ $166.70
  • Total Return ≈ $1,166.70

• Backing Toshiomi Kazama at +425:
  • Profit ≈ $4,250
  • Total Return ≈ $5,250

Implied Probability

Although nobody needs the math breakdown, those odds speak to implied winning chances:

• Elijah Smith: High–80s percent likelihood
• Toshiomi Kazama: Low–20s percent shot

Betting Strategy Considerations

• Value Play on Kazama? His underdog price (+425) offers a massive payout if he lands submissions early. For bettors comfortable with volatility, a small unit on Kazama can yield a big payday.
• Chalk Safety on Smith? If you prefer a safer bet, Smith’s odds reflect the belief he’ll control the pace, dictate where the fight goes, and grind out a win.

Ultimately, your decision hinges on risk tolerance and style matchup outlook. Will Smith’s wrestling shut down Kazama’s submission game, or can Kazama capitalize on a scramble to derail the heavy favorite? The odds and line movement at BetOnline.ag provide a clear betting landscape for this intriguing bantamweight battle.