Landwehr vs Charriere: UFC Betting Odds & AI Pick

Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere fight analysis

Event Details

The Featherweight showdown between Nate Landwehr and Morgan Charriere is set to light up the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, on Sunday, July 13, 2025. This bout is featured on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Teixeira, with the official walk-out time slated for approximately 10:00 PM local time (02:00 UTC on July 14). Fans tuning in around the globe can catch the action live on ESPN+ in the U.S. and via UFC Fight Pass internationally.

Introduction

As the promotion builds toward its headline clash between Derrick Lewis and Glover Teixeira, all eyes will also be glued to the featherweight contest of Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere. This fight carries significant implications for both athletes: Charriere aims to rebound from a narrow decision loss, while Landwehr looks to reestablish momentum after a third-round knockout defeat.

Morgan Charriere enters as the clear favorite across all major sportsbooks, with opening moneyline odds around -250 (Caesars) to -225 (BetMGM, BetUS). The 29-year-old Frenchman has compiled a professional record of 20-11-1, demonstrating explosive power (12 career knockouts) and an 83% takedown defense. Charriere’s UFC tenure began in September 2023, and in just four appearances he has shown a versatile striking arsenal complemented by solid defensive wrestling. His most recent outing, a unanimous decision defeat to Nathaniel Wood, highlighted his cardio and technical boxing under pressure—areas he will look to refine in this matchup.

Conversely, Nate Landwehr assumes the role of underdog, priced at approximately +205 (Caesars) to +210 (DraftKings). At 36 years old, Landwehr brings veteran savvy and a rugged style to the Octagon. His 18-6-0 pro mark includes nine knockouts, and he boasts a respectable 53% significant strike defense. Although he trails Charriere in takedown accuracy (42%) and reach (72" to 69"), Landwehr’s aggressive pace and willingness to engage in toe-to-toe exchanges make him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division.

Key Points to Watch

• Striking Dynamics: Charriere’s 49% significant strike accuracy vs. Landwehr’s 46%
• Defensive Metrics: Landwehr’s marginal edge in striking defense (53% vs. 51%)
• Age & Experience: Charriere’s athletic prime (29) vs. Landwehr’s tenured presence (36)
• Finishing Potential: Both fighters carry double-digit knockout tallies; a finish via power shot is well within reach.

Why This Fight Matters

This contest isn’t just a collision of styles; it’s a crossroads moment. For Charriere, a win solidifies his standing as a rising contender in the featherweight ranks. For Landwehr, an upset victory would vault him back into relevance and set the stage for higher-profile matchups. Betting markets reflect this balance of risk and reward, with Charriere’s favorite status offset by favorable odds on Landwehr returning to the win column.

With the stage set and stakes high, Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere promises fireworks and strategic grappling exchanges in equal measure. Whether you’re wagering on the established power of Charriere or banking on Landwehr’s veteran grit, this bout is poised to deliver a thrilling featherweight encounter.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Lewis vs Teixeira can be found on the Lewis vs Teixeira event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Nate Landwehr Profile

Background

• Age: 36
• Country: United States (Clarksville, TN)
• Fighting Style: Rugged striker with heavy hands and durable chin, trained in MMA fundamentals with a focus on pressure striking.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights)

1. Dec. 7, 2024 – Loss vs. Dooho Choi (KO/TKO, Round 3, 3:21)
2. Mar. 30, 2024 – Win vs. Jamall Emmers (KO/TKO, Round 1, 4:43)
3. Jun. 10, 2023 – Loss vs. Dan Ige (Decision – Unanimous, 3 rounds)

After a statement opening win by first-round stoppage of Emmers, Landwehr has hit turbulence against high-level opponents. His third-round knockout loss to Choi showcased both his resilience—surviving deep into round three—and a susceptibility to heavy shot accumulations. The unanimous decision defeat to Dan Ige further underlined challenges when fighting elite technical strikers over three rounds.

Strengths

• Power & Finishing: 9 career KOs in 18 wins; heavy overhand rights and looping hooks grant him a constant knockout threat.
• Striking Defense: 53% significant strike defense (higher than Charrière’s 51%), reflecting a tight guard and good head movement.
• Durability & Heart: Demonstrated ability to absorb damage and keep pressing forward, earning respect for his toughness.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 42% accuracy on takedown attempts leaves him unable to reliably bring wrestlers to the mat.
• Cardio at Distance: Longer exchanges often favor more technical or younger fighters, as Landwehr’s pace can dip in later rounds.
• Age Factor: At 36, reflexes and recovery may be marginally slower compared to younger featherweights.

---

Morgan Charriere Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: France (Poissy)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with opportunistic wrestling defense, trained in European kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fundamentals.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights)

1. Mar. 22, 2025 – Loss vs. Nathaniel Wood (Decision – Unanimous, 3 rounds)
2. Sep. 28, 2024 – Win vs. Gabriel Miranda (KO/TKO, Round 2, 0:27)
3. Apr. 6, 2024 – Loss vs. Chepe Mariscal (Decision – Split, 3 rounds)
4. Sep. 2, 2023 – Win vs. Manolo Zecchini (KO/TKO, Round 1, 3:51)

Charrière has alternated wins and losses but always shown killer instinct, posting two highlight-reel knockouts since his UFC debut. His unanimous decision loss to Wood was competitive, and the split decision defeat to Mariscal underscored his capacity to go the distance even in defeat.

Strengths

• Takedown Defense: 83% takedown defense – one of the division’s best – which neutralizes wrestlers and allows him to keep the fight standing.
• Finishing Efficiency: 12 KOs and 3 submissions in 20 wins, including 8 first-round finishes; possesses explosive power and transition submissions.
• Striking Accuracy: 49% significant strike accuracy, coupled with a varied arsenal of kicks, straights and elbows.

Weaknesses

• Cardio Under Duress: While average fight time is 9:50, sustained pressure from relentless fighters could expose his gas tank late.
• Takedown Offense: 50% accuracy is solid but not elite; against a wrestler-heavy opponent, he may struggle to secure ground control offensively.
• Decision Vulnerability: Both recent losses came via decision, indicating potential difficulty in imposing his game plan across three full rounds.

---

Stylistic Outlook

This clash pits Landwehr’s veteran power and striking defense against Charrière’s elite takedown defense and finishing versatility. Landwehr must pressure relentlessly and hunt for the early knockout, while Charrière will look to dictate range, avoid sustained clinch work, and leverage his defensive wrestling to stay upright. The outcome will hinge on whether Landwehr can crack Charrière’s guard before the Frenchman’s cardio – and technical precision – carry him through to a late-fight victory.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest data, Morgan Charriere is firmly installed as the favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Nate Landwehr carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of their moneyline ranges:

• Morgan Charriere (Favorite)

  • Odds range: -225 (BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS) up to -258 (DraftKings)
  • Caesars currently lists Charriere at -250

• Nate Landwehr (Underdog)

  • Odds range: +185 (BetMGM) up to +210 (DraftKings)
  • Caesars currently lists Landwehr at +205

The gap between a -250 favorite and a +205 underdog reflects a clear expectation that Charriere will control striking range and defensive wrestling, while Landwehr must land a thunderous knockout to reverse the script.

---

Notable Line Movement

A review of the odds history shows steady steam behind Morgan Charriere, pushing him from a modest favorite into a more pronounced choice:

• Caesars:
  • June 29: -230 → June 30: -250
• DraftKings:
  • June 27: -225 → June 29 (peak): -258 → June 30: -258

Meanwhile, Nate Landwehr’s line has drifted in parallel:

• Caesars:
  • June 29: +190 → June 30: +205
• DraftKings:
  • June 27: +185 → June 29: +210

These shifts—roughly 15–30 cents on each side—indicate heavier betting volume and sharper action on Charriere, as bettors responded to his recent performance metrics and durability under pressure.

---

Potential Payout & Win Probabilities

If you’re weighing a $1,000 wager on either fighter, here’s what you’d see at current lines:

• Betting $1,000 on Morgan Charriere at -250

  • Payout: $1,400 total returned ($400 profit)
  • Implied win probability: ~71%

• Betting $1,000 on Nate Landwehr at +205

  • Payout: $3,050 total returned ($2,050 profit)
  • Implied win probability: ~33%

Whether you prioritize a safer return on the chalk or chase a lucrative upset, these figures illuminate the risk/reward dynamic.

---

Best Betting Markets

• Favorite (Charriere):

  • Best odds: -225 at BetMGM, BetOnline.ag or BetUS
  • Lower juice means a slightly better payout than -250 or -258 elsewhere

• Underdog (Landwehr):

  • Best odds: +210 at DraftKings
  • Adds extra value to any upset scenario

For a balance of competitive lines and reliable service, BetMGM and DraftKings stand out. BetMGM offers Charriere at -225, while DraftKings rewards Landwehr backers with +210. Choose your side, lock in the best available number, and get ready for an intriguing featherweight showdown.