Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico Fight Analysis
Introduction
The highly anticipated featherweight showdown between Movsar Evloev and Aaron Pico is set to light up the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, 2025, as part of the UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder main card. Scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM UTC, this bout promises to deliver electrifying action as two remarkably talented athletes clash in the Octagon.
Setting the Stage
- Event: UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder
- Date: Saturday, July 26, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC (Main Card)
- Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lb)
The Favorite: Movsar Evloev
Russia’s own Movsar Evloev enters this contest as the prohibitive favorite and a ubiquitous presence in the upper echelon of the division. Carrying an unblemished professional record of 19–0, Evloev has dismantled five consecutive top-10 contenders—including Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, and Dan Ige—via unanimous decision. Known for his relentless pace, high-level wrestling base, and ever-improving striking, Evloev currently sits at #2 in the UFC featherweight rankings and boasts:
- Odds: –240 (Caesars), –235 (BetMGM), –245 (DraftKings)
- Record: 19–0–0
- Average Fight Time: 15:00
- Significant Strike Accuracy: 48%
- Takedown Accuracy: 48%
His seasoned résumé, combined with a 61% takedown defense and a knack for neutralizing elite grapplers, makes him the clear favorite to extend his perfect run.
The Underdog: Aaron Pico
On the opposite side stands American phenom Aaron Pico, making his official UFC debut after a meteoric career in amateur wrestling and MMA. Despite carrying an untested 0–0 UFC ledger, Pico’s explosive power and elite wrestling credentials have generated tremendous buzz. The underdog tag comes with attractive +200 odds at Caesars and DraftKings, reflecting both the upside potential and the debut uncertainty:
- Odds: +200 (Caesars), +190 (BetMGM & BetRivers), +200 (DraftKings)
- UFC Debut: July 26, 2025
- Age: 28
- Born: Whittier, California, USA
Pico’s explosive striking, honed from a decorated wrestling background, could pose a nightmare for Evloev if he manages to land early takedowns or heavy openings. However, questions remain about his cardio, fight IQ against high-level opponents, and ability to survive three full rounds under constant pressure.
Clash of Styles and Stakes
This fight represents a classic wrestling vs. wrestling narrative—Evloev’s suffocating top control and smothering pace facing off against Pico’s dynamic takedown transitions and power-hungry striking assaults. For Evloev, a victory cements his place as the next title challenger in the 145-pound division. For Pico, a statement win on debut would rocket him into immediate title contention conversations and validate the hype surrounding his explosive skill set.
As the betting public splits between a proven elite featherweight and a heavily touted newcomer, this bout is set to be one of the most intriguing undercard contests of 2025. Whether you’re backing Evloev to maintain his perfect record or banking on Pico to shock the world, the stakes have never been higher in this Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico collision.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.
Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles
Movsar Evloev Profile
Age: 31
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Freestyle wrestling base with evolving striking arsenal
UFC Ranking: #2 Featherweight
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights):
- Dec. 7, 2024 – Win vs. Aljamain Sterling (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jan. 20, 2024 – Win vs. Arnold Allen (Decision – Unanimous)
- May 6, 2023 – Win vs. Diego Lopes (Decision – Unanimous)
- June 4, 2022 – Win vs. Dan Ige (Decision – Unanimous)
- June 12, 2021 – Win vs. Hakeem Dawodu (Decision – Unanimous)
Evloev has methodically dismantled each of his last five opponents on the judges’ scorecards, showcasing unmatched cardio and control over three rounds. He has yet to be finished—either standing or on the mat—and maintains a perfect 19–0 professional record.
Strengths:
- Wrestling & Top Control: 48% takedown accuracy combined with 61% takedown defense. He consistently imposes his will, dictating where the fight takes place.
- Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 15:00 underscores his ability to maintain relentless pressure through fifteen minutes, often overwhelming opponents late in rounds.
- Strike Defense: A 61% significant strike defense rate reflects his slick head movement and footwork, allowing him to smother incoming strikes and counter effectively.
Weaknesses:
- Finishing Instinct: Only 3 KO victories and 4 submissions in 19 wins, with just 2 first-round finishes. He rarely forces early stoppages, potentially leaving openings for explosive starters.
- Striking Output: While accurate at 48% sig-strike rate, his volume is moderate. Heavy, high-pace strikers may exploit transitional windows when he advances for takedowns.
Aaron Pico Profile
Age: 28
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Elite amateur wrestling pedigree fused with evolving power punching
UFC Debut: July 26, 2025
Recent Form:
- Professional MMA Record: 0–0–0 (UFC Debut)
- Amateur Wrestling Accolades: Multiple U.S. national titles, Junior World Champion, regarded as one of the most decorated young wrestlers in U.S. history.
- Regional MMA Experience: While Pico has not logged UFC fights, he has tested his skills in regional MMA showcases—displaying explosive takedowns and knockout power.
Strengths:
- Explosive Power: Inherent knockout threat with one-punch power; opponents must respect his striking range from the outset.
- Wrestling Transitions: Elite scrambling ability and creative shot selection can catch even seasoned grapplers off guard.
- Youth & Upside: At 28, he still possesses untapped potential, allowing rapid evolution under top-level coaching and training partners.
Weaknesses:
- Lack of High-Level Pro Experience: No UFC fights to date; questions loom about his ability to sustain output against elite pacing.
- Cardio Concerns: Historically, Pico has shown fatigue in later rounds; against Evloev’s grinding pace, his gas tank may be tested early.
- Fight IQ & Adaptation: Transitioning from amateur wrestling to MMA at the highest level demands patience and strategy—areas where inexperience could be exploited.
Head-to-Head Storyline
This matchup pits Evloev’s polished, suffocating wrestling against Pico’s raw power and elite amateur pedigree. Evloev’s goal is to grind out another decision, neutralizing Pico’s explosiveness with relentless takedowns and positional control. Pico must land explosive shots early or mix takedowns with heavy strikes to prevent being dragged into Evloev’s championship-caliber wrestling game. Fans can expect a fascinating chess match in the grappling exchanges and a stylistic contrast that defines modern featherweight warfare.
Betting Odds and Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
As fight night approaches, the Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico odds have solidified, reflecting the general consensus that Evloev is the heavy favorite while Pico carries underdog value.
-
Movsar Evloev (Favorite)
- Caesars: –240
- BetMGM: –235
- DraftKings: –245
- BetRivers: –250
- BetOnline.ag: –225
-
Aaron Pico (Underdog)
- Caesars: +200
- BetMGM: +190
- DraftKings: +200
- BetRivers: +190
- BetOnline.ag: +190
The gap between Evloev’s average of about –240 and Pico’s +195–+200 underlines the bookies’ strong belief in Evloev’s unbeaten résumé and grappling dominance.
Best Sportsbook for Value
- Underdog Bet (Aaron Pico): If you’re backing Pico, the best price is +200 at both Caesars and DraftKings.
- Favorite Bet (Movsar Evloev): To back Evloev on the favorite side, BetMGM currently offers the juiciest line at –235, giving you slightly better return on your risk.
Line Movement & Notable Swings
Monitoring the line movement over the past week reveals some interesting swings, especially on certain books:
- DraftKings: Opened as steep as –258 for Evloev (July 12), then floated back toward –230 by July 13, before settling around –245.
- BetMGM: Started at –220 for Evloev and slid to –235 by the latest update—indicating heavier money coming in on the Russian grappler.
- BetOnline.ag: Showed the highest volatility for both fighters—Evloev’s line ranged from –225 to –260 before calming at –225, while Pico jumped between +190 and +235.
These swings suggest that sharp action has been on Evloev, with some contrarian money sprinkled on Pico when his line briefly spiked to +235.
Potential Payout and Implied Chances
If you’re deciding where to put $1,000, here’s how the returns and implied win expectations stack up:
-
Betting $1,000 on Movsar Evloev at –240 (Caesars)
- Profit: $416.67
- Total Return: $1,416.67
- Implied Win Probability: ≈ 70%
-
Betting $1,000 on Aaron Pico at +200 (Caesars/DraftKings)
- Profit: $2,000
- Total Return: $3,000
- Implied Win Probability: ≈ 33%
Evloev’s line suggests he’s closing in on three-quarters of the money—and given his undefeated record and top-five ranking, that seems fair. Yet Pico’s +200 line offers significant upside for those willing to back the explosive debutant.
Final Thoughts on the Odds
- Value Pick: Aaron Pico at +200 (best at Caesars/DraftKings) if you believe his power and wrestling can catch Evloev off guard.
- Safety Pick: Movsar Evloev at –235 (best at BetMGM) if you want to ride the undefeated favorite and his proven takedown-heavy approach.
Whether you’re chasing a big payout on the underdog or playing it safe with the favorite, these lines give you a clear picture of where the smart money—and the biggest potential rewards—are heading.
AI Pick: Movsar Evloev
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Movsar Evloev, or see all the AI picks for Whittaker vs de Ridder. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.