Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee Fight Analysis
Fight Overview
The bantamweight clash between Petr Yan and Marcus McGhee is set to headline the Main Card of UFC Fight Night on July 26, 2025, at the iconic Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The action kicks off at 7:00 PM local time (UTC+4) and will be broadcast live across UFC’s global media partners. As the third-ranked contender in the division, Yan brings championship pedigree and elite striking to his showdown with the surging No. 13-ranked American, McGhee.
Event Context
This non-title bout comes on the heels of a stacked main event featuring Robert Whittaker vs. Jack de Ridder, but all eyes will quickly turn to the cage when Yan makes his maiden trip to the Middle East. Etihad Arena’s state-of-the-art setting and electric atmosphere provide the perfect backdrop for two top pros with contrasting styles: Yan’s boxing-based offense versus McGhee’s powerful knockout arsenal and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu foundation.
The Favorite and the Underdog
Analysts and oddsmakers agree that Petr Yan enters as the strong favorite, with American odds hovering around -350 (FanDuel: -400; DraftKings: -380; BetOnline.ag: -335; Caesars: -350). Yan’s resume speaks volumes: a former two-time title challenger with an 18–5 record, 7 knockouts, and proven durability in five-round wars. His crisp combinations, defensive footwork, and 54% significant strike accuracy make him a nightmare for anyone in the 135-pound division.
In contrast, Marcus McGhee is firmly cast as the underdog at approximately +275 (FanDuel: +285; DraftKings: +300; BetOnline.ag: +275; Caesars: +275). The 35-year-old Detroit native boasts a 10–1 professional mark, including 8 knockouts and 1 submission finish. While his 65% significant strike defense and perfect takedown defense signal solid fundamentals, McGhee’s UFC tenure is still in its infancy. He must overcome a unanimous decision win over Jonathan Martinez and two knockout victories to prove he can hang with a sensor as refined as Yan.
Why This Fight Matters
Beyond the numbers, this matchup could determine the next true title contender in the bantamweight landscape. A convincing Yan performance solidifies his claim for another shot at the belt and keeps the Russian contender in the championship conversation. Conversely, a statement win for McGhee would catapult him into the divisional elite and create an instant buzz around the underdog who toppled a former title challenger.
What’s at Stake
- For Petr Yan: Revenge, validation, and the opportunity to surge toward a third title shot.
- For Marcus McGhee: Career-defining momentum, potential entry into the Top 5, and the chance to rewrite his own narrative by upsetting a former champion.
This Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee bout promises electrifying striking exchanges, critical grappling scrambles, and the high stakes befitting a pivotal night in Abu Dhabi. Stay tuned as two of bantamweight’s most dangerous competitors collide in what could be the most consequential non-title fight of 2025.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.
Matchup & Fighter Profiles
Petr Yan Profile
- Age: 32
- Country: Russia
- Fighting Style: Boxer
- UFC Record: 18–5–0
Recent Form
- Nov. 23, 2024 – Win vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Decision – Unanimous)
- Mar. 9, 2024 – Win vs. Song Yadong (Decision – Unanimous)
- Mar. 11, 2023 – Loss vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Decision – Unanimous)
- Oct. 22, 2022 – Loss vs. Sean O’Malley (Decision – Split)
- Apr. 9, 2022 – Loss vs. Aljamain Sterling (Decision – Split)
Petr Yan enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak, having outboxed former champ Deiveson Figueiredo in November and dominated rising contender Song Yadong in March. His three losses—all by decision—came against the division’s elite and demonstrate his ability to hang in five-round wars.
Strengths
- Elite Striking Accuracy (54%): Yan lands more than half of his significant strikes, combining crisp straight punches with powerful hooks.
- Durability & Conditioning: An average fight time of 17:17 indicates comfort in deep waters, rarely gassing late.
- Takedown Offense & Defense: 49% takedown accuracy and 85% takedown defense allow him to dictate the fight’s range and avoid being grounded.
- High-Level Experience: Former two-time title challenger with 23 UFC bouts under his belt, Yan excels under pressure and in high stakes.
Weaknesses
- Limited Finishing Rate: Just 7 knockouts and 1 submission in 18 wins; may struggle to put away tougher opponents.
- Vulnerability to Speed: Against dynamic, southpaw or switch‐stance fighters, Yan’s timing can be disrupted, as seen in his split decision losses.
- 60% Significant Strike Defense: Allows roughly 0.6 significant strikes per attempt, which could be exploited by volume strikers.
Marcus McGhee Profile
- Age: 35
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
- UFC Record: 10–1–0
Recent Form
- Nov. 16, 2024 – Win vs. Jonathan Martinez (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jan. 13, 2024 – Win vs. Gaston Bolanos (KO/TKO, 2nd Round)
- Aug. 12, 2023 – Win vs. JP Buys (KO/TKO, 1st Round)
- Apr. 29, 2023 – Loss vs. Journey Newson (Decision)
Marcus McGhee has rattled off three straight victories since his only professional loss, including two knockout finishes. His unanimous decision over veteran Jonathan Martinez showcased an evolving all-around game, blending striking and grappling prowess.
Strengths
- Power & Finishing Ability: With 8 KOs in 10 wins, McGhee packs heavy hands and explosive transitions.
- Defensive Grappling: 100% takedown defense means he rarely gets taken down, forcing opponents to trade strikes.
- Efficient Defense (65%): He avoids a high volume of significant strikes, making him difficult to finish on the feet.
- Aggressive Start: Average fight time of 08:13 suggests he pushes pace early, looking to end fights before deep waters.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy (48%): Nearly half of his significant strikes miss, which could leave him off-balance against an accurate boxer like Yan.
- Limited Top-Level Experience: Only four UFC fights to his name; untested over five rounds and against elite wrestling.
- Grappling Offense (33% Takedown Accuracy): Reliance on defensive grappling means he may struggle to control Yan against the cage or secure submissions.
In this stylistic contrast—Yan’s boxing mastery versus McGhee’s knockout power and BJJ background—each fighter brings clear strengths. Yan must use precision and pace to neutralize McGhee’s early explosiveness, while McGhee will look to land heavy shots and avoid Yan’s jab to seize the upset.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
As fight night approaches, Petr Yan stands out as a heavy favorite across all major sportsbooks, while Marcus McGhee carries the underdog tag:
- FanDuel: Yan –400 | McGhee +285
- DraftKings: Yan –380 | McGhee +300
- BetOnline.ag: Yan –335 | McGhee +275
- Caesars: Yan –350 | McGhee +275
The gap between –400 on FanDuel for Yan and +300 on DraftKings for McGhee underscores the market’s conviction: Yan is expected to win roughly three out of four times, while McGhee is seen landing the upset just once in four outings.
Best Sportsbook for Value
- For underdog bettors, DraftKings (+300) currently offers the juiciest return on Marcus McGhee.
- For backing the favorite, BetOnline.ag (–335) provides the softest line on Petr Yan, meaning you risk less per dollar to secure your profit.
Line Movement & Swing Analysis
A closer look at recent line shifts reveals where smart money is flowing:
-
Marcus McGhee (DraftKings):
• July 4: +310 → +275
• July 9–11: scans between +280 and +270
• July 13: dipped to +260
• July 14: surged back to +300McGhee’s odds initially shortened—implying early underdog support—before drifting wider again, suggesting late heavy wagers on Yan.
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Petr Yan (DraftKings):
• July 4: –395 → –345
• July 9: –355
• July 11: –340
• July 13: –325
• July 14: hardened to –380Yan’s line trended more negative as the week progressed, highlighting sharp bettors piling on the former title challenger.
This contrast—McGhee drifting and Yan sharpening—confirms a consensus in favor of Yan’s superior skill set and experience. Late money on Yan has pushed him into even larger favorite status.
Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities
If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter tonight:
-
Betting Marcus McGhee at +300 (DraftKings):
• Profit: $3,000
• Total Return: $4,000
• Implied Win Probability: ~25% -
Betting Petr Yan at –335 (BetOnline.ag):
• Profit: ~$298
• Total Return: ~$1,298
• Implied Win Probability: ~77%
While Yan’s payout is modest, his implied probability of victory is significantly higher. Conversely, McGhee offers the chance for a four-to-one return if he pulls off the upset.
By tracking these odds and movements, bettors can identify where “smart money” is leaning and secure the best lines before they shift again. Whether you back the seasoned veteran Yan or chase the explosive underdog McGhee, understanding these dynamics is crucial for maximizing your UFC wager.
AI Pick: Petr Yan
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Petr Yan, or see all the AI picks for Whittaker vs de Ridder. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
