UFC Paris 2025: Imavov vs Borralho Odds & AI Pick

Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho fight analysis

Event Overview

Get ready for an electrifying Middleweight showdown as Nassourdine Imavov takes on Caio Borralho on Saturday, September 6, 2025. This pivotal bout will headline the Main Card at the world-famous Accor Arena in Paris, France, with the first bell slated to ring at 19:00 UTC. Broadcast live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+, this fight promises high-octane action as two of the division’s most dangerous contenders collide.

Setting the Stage

• Date: September 6, 2025
• Time: 19:00 UTC (Local time in Paris)
• Venue: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Card Placement: Main Card, Middleweight Division

Both athletes enter the Octagon on the back of impressive winning streaks, but with slightly different trajectories. As the smoke clears in the French capital, fight fans will witness a classic striker-versus-grappler duel, a stylistic clash that often produces fireworks.

The Favorite and the Underdog

According to current American odds across top sportsbooks, Nassourdine Imavov holds a slight edge in the betting markets:

• BetRivers: Imavov –120 vs. Borralho –106
• DraftKings: Imavov –115 vs. Borralho –105
• BetMGM: Imavov –105 vs. Borralho –115 (a rare outlier)

Overall, Imavov opens as a slight favorite at around –110 to –115, while Borralho sits on the other side as the underdog, typically priced around –105 to –110. Those narrow odds reflect just how evenly matched these two ranked Middleweights are, with both possessing the power, technique, and experience to end the night inside the distance.

Fighter Profiles at a Glance

• Nassourdine Imavov (#2 Middleweight)
  • Record: 16–4–0
  • Age: 29
  • Height: 75″, Reach: 75″
  • Style: Intense striking with a 56% significant strike accuracy and 79% takedown defense.
  • Recent run: KO wins over Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier highlight his finishing ability.

• Caio Borralho (#7 Middleweight)
  • Record: 17–1–0
  • Age: 32
  • Height: 73.5″, Reach: 75″
  • Style: Well-rounded MMA game with a 60% striking accuracy, 60% takedown success, and 77% takedown defense.
  • Recent run: Unanimous decision victories over Jared Cannonier and Abus Magomedov showcase his durability and wrestling pedigree.

Why This Fight Matters

This matchup is more than just a marquee billing for UFC Fight Night in Paris—it’s a potential title eliminator. A victory for Imavov cements his status as the undisputed #2 contender, while a win for Borralho could vault him into the top three, forcing the promotion’s hand on his next title shot. Expectations are high for a swift, high-intensity battle where every strike and scramble could tilt the balance.

As fight night approaches, bettors and analysts alike will be watching the odds and the weights closely. With both men peaking in performance and motivation, this fight is poised to be an instant classic in the Middleweight division. Who will rise? The slight favorite Imavov, or the dangerous underdog Borralho? The answer unfolds live from Paris on September 6.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Red Corner: Nassourdine Imavov

Age: 29
Country: France (born in Russia)
Fighting Style: Striker

Recent Form

• Feb. 1, 2025: Defeated Israel Adesanya via KO/TKO (Round 2, 0:30)
• Sep. 28, 2024: Defeated Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
• Jun. 8, 2024: Defeated Jared Cannonier via KO/TKO (Round 4, 1:34)
• Feb. 3, 2024: Defeated Roman Dolidze via Majority Decision (5 rounds)
• Jun. 10, 2023: Lost to Chris Curtis (Could Not Continue, Round 2, 3:04)

Strengths

• Finishing Ability: 7 first-round finishes and 7 KO victories point to explosive power early.
• Takedown Defense: Boasts a 79% takedown defense rate—rarely spends time on his back.
• Cardio for Five Rounds: Average fight time of 14:23 shows he keeps up a high pace.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: A 32% takedown accuracy suggests he struggles to implement his grappling against elite wrestlers.
• Striking Defense: At 59% significant strike defense, he can be vulnerable to heavy strikers who pressure his output.
• Predictability in Attack: Reliance on power shots can lead to telegraphed entries against technically sound opponents.

---

Blue Corner: Caio Borralho

Age: 32
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA

Recent Form

• Aug. 24, 2024: Defeated Jared Cannonier via Unanimous Decision (5 rounds)
• May 4, 2024: Defeated Paul Craig via KO/TKO (Round 2, 2:10)
• Nov. 4, 2023: Defeated Abus Magomedov via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
• Apr. 29, 2023: Defeated Michal Oleksiejczuk via Submission (Round 2, 2:49)
• Oct. 22, 2022: Defeated Makhmud Muradov via Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy: Lands 60% of his significant strikes, keeping opponents on the back foot.
• Grappling Versatility: 60% takedown success rate combined with 77% defense makes him hard to control for any stylist.
• Durability and Pace: With an average fight time of 12:51, he can weather storms and maintain volume late.

Weaknesses

• Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages could allow fast starters like Imavov to take control early.
• Moderate KO Power: Only 5 KO wins in 17 victories—relies more on wrestling and volume than one-punch knockout threat.
• Defensive Gaps Under Pressure: A 63% strike defense means cumulative damage can build if he’s forced to retreat.

---

Tactical Outlook

Imavov enters as the striking powerhouse, hunting early knockouts and punishing any retreat with bombs. His high finish rate and takedown defense allow him to dictate the fight’s geography, but his low takedown accuracy may be exposed if Borralho drags him into scrambles. Borralho’s well-rounded toolkit—strong wrestling entrances, slick transitions, and precise combinations—presents a multifaceted problem. If he can neutralize Imavov’s power with constant lateral movement and mix takedowns, the Brazilian could control the pace and rack up points over three rounds. Conversely, if Imavov lands his heavy hands early, Borralho’s defensive output may crack under pressure.

This matchup is an enthralling striker vs. grappler narrative—with both men boasting Olympic-caliber athletics and UFC-proven resumes, it boils down to execution: can Imavov finish fast, or will Borralho’s wrestling and durability overwhelm the Frenchman’s offense? Expect a chess match peppered with explosive entries and momentum swings.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Heading into fight night, Nassourdine Imavov sits as the slight favorite across most major books, while Caio Borralho lines up as the underdog. Here’s a snapshot of the current head-to-head (H2H) odds:

• Nassourdine Imavov:
  • BetRivers: –120
  • DraftKings: –115
  • BetUS, Caesars, BetOnline.ag: –110
  • BetMGM: –105

• Caio Borralho:
  • DraftKings: –105
  • BetRivers: –106
  • BetMGM: –115
  • BetUS, Caesars, BetOnline.ag: –110

Imavov’s slightly larger negative number (as low as –120) marks him as the book’s favorite. Borralho, with a consensus line around –110 to –105, is the underdog, though the narrow gaps show oddsmakers see an evenly matched contest.

Line Movement and Swings

A look at the live odds history reveals significant early swings on both sides:

• Imavov’s line began as steep as –179 on BetOnline.ag (Aug. 19), but quickly dropped to –110 by Aug. 20 and settled around –115 to –120 as action balanced out.
• Borralho’s line opened at a hefty +154 underdog price on BetOnline.ag (Aug. 19), flipped to –110 by Aug. 19 night, and has hovered between –105 and –110 since.

These dramatic swings in the first 24 hours suggest heavy early money both for and against Imavov, likely from sharp bettors reacting to weight-in news and Imavov’s standout recent performances. Since then, the market has stabilized, reflecting public confidence in the #2-ranked French striker.

Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you laid down $1,000 on either fighter at the current consensus line:

• Betting Imavov at –110 returns $1,909 (profit of $909)
• Betting Imavov at the best line (–105 on BetMGM) returns $1,952 (profit of $952)
• Betting Borralho at –105 (DraftKings) returns $1,952 (profit of $952)
• Betting Borralho at –110 returns $1,909 (profit of $909)

The implied win probabilities are roughly 53% for Imavov and 47% for Borralho, underscoring how razor-thin the margin is in this Middleweight clash.

Best Sportsbook to Back the Favorite and Underdog

• For Imavov (Favorite): BetMGM’s –105 line offers the highest return if you believe he’ll dominate.
• For Borralho (Underdog): DraftKings at –105 is your best value, matching BetMGM’s price for Imavov but on the underdog.

If you want to maximize potential returns on a $1,000 wager, grab the –105 line—whether you’re siding with Imavov’s power or betting on Borralho’s grappling and durability to pull the upset.