Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones Odds, Analysis & Picks

Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones Fight Analysis

Introduction

The highly anticipated lightweight showdown between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones is set to electrify the UFC Fight Night card on September 6, 2025, at the iconic Accor Arena in Paris, France. This bout, featured on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho, is slated to begin at 7:00 PM UTC (9:00 PM local Paris time) and marks a pivotal moment for both athletes as they seek to climb the division ladder.

Where and When

• Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
• Venue: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• Card Position: Main Card
• Estimated Start Time: 7:00 PM UTC (9:00 PM CEST)

France’s capital will host a world-class mixed martial arts event, and the lightweight clash between Oki and Jones promises to be one of the night’s standout contests. Fans can expect a high-octane affair in one of Europe’s most historic sporting venues.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

As of the latest odds across leading sportsbooks, Mason Jones enters this contest as the favorite, trading around -185 to -215 (American odds) depending on the bookmaker. The Welsh striker has compiled a 12-2-0 professional record, showcasing his well-rounded skill set:

• Significant Striking Accuracy: 42%
• Takedown Accuracy: 53%
• Average Fight Time: 13:27

Jones has demonstrated a methodical approach in the Octagon, mixing technical stand-up with strong takedown defense (80%) and the ability to control the pace late into championship rounds.

On the other side, Bolaji Oki enters as the underdog, priced around +150 to +165. The Belgium-based lightweight has carved out a 10-2-0 record, highlighted by:

• Significant Striking Accuracy: 45%
• Takedown Accuracy: 75%
• Average Fight Time: 9:05

Oki’s aggressive style, combined with a high-volume striking attack and top-tier takedown success, makes him a dangerous opponent capable of turning any moment into a fight-finishing sequence.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Division Implications: Both fighters are eyeing a move into the top 15 of the lightweight rankings. A win here could catapult the victor into contention for higher-profile matchups later in 2025.
2. Stylistic Clash: Jones’ precision striking and defensive wrestling will be tested by Oki’s relentless pressure and grappling pedigree. Can Mason keep the fight standing, or will Bolaji impose his will with heavy top control and ground-and-pound?
3. Momentum Shift: Coming off a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens, Jones aims to avenge his early-career setbacks. Meanwhile, Oki looks to rebound from his lone UFC loss by showcasing improvements in his submission defense and cardio.

With so much on the line, expect fireworks in Paris. The contrasting styles, combined with the clear favorite-underdog narrative, set the stage for a thrilling chapter in both fighters’ UFC journeys. Make sure to tune in early and secure your picks—this one is shaping up to be a barnburner.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Mason Jones Profile

Background

• Age: 30
• Country: Wales
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA striker with a wrestling base and strong takedown defense
• Physicals: 70" height, 74" arm reach, 155.5 lb walking weight

Recent Form
Over his last five UFC outings, Jones has gone 2-3, alternating highs and lows as he seeks consistent momentum:

1. W (May 3, 2025) vs. Jeremy Stephens – Unanimous Decision
2. L (Jul. 23, 2022) vs. Ludovit Klein – Unanimous Decision
3. W (Oct. 23, 2021) vs. David Onama – Unanimous Decision
4. L (Jun. 5, 2021) vs. Alan Patrick – Could Not Continue (injury)
5. L (Jan. 20, 2021) vs. Mike Davis – Unanimous Decision

Jones’ most recent win over veteran Stephens showcased improved pace control and striking volume, but his earlier setbacks revealed occasional lapses in defensive consistency and vulnerability to takedown attempts.

Strengths

• Elite Takedown Defense (80%): Rarely taken down, Jones thrives in scrambling situations and forces opponents to stand and trade.
• Durability & Cardio: Averaging 13:27 per fight, he can maintain output into deep waters and absorb damage when necessary.
• Submission Savvy: With 3 submission victories on his ledger, he is dangerous off his back, threatening guillotines and armbars in scrambles.
• Reach Advantage: A 74" reach allows him to manage distance, mix in jabs and straight rights, and counter agres­sive entries.

Weaknesses

• Moderate Striking Defense (49%): Nearly half of opponents’ significant strikes land, suggesting openings for power punchers.
• Inconsistent Wrestling Offense (53% accuracy): Attempts takedowns, but success rate dips against defensively sound wrestlers, limiting ground control.
• Late-Round Susceptibility: While cardio is solid, his output can taper in rounds two and three, inviting momentum shifts.

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Bolaji Oki Profile

Background

• Age: 29
• Country: Belgium
• Fighting Style: Aggressive grappler‐striker hybrid with a wrestling pedigree and heavy pressure
• Physicals: 70" height, 73" arm reach, 155.5 lb walking weight

Recent Form
In three UFC outings, Oki has gone 2-1, demonstrating rapid adaptation and finishing instincts:

1. W (May 31, 2025) vs. Michael Aswell – Unanimous Decision
2. L (Sep. 28, 2024) vs. Chris Duncan – Submission (RNC) Round 1, 3:34
3. W (Feb. 10, 2024) vs. Timothy Cuamba – Split Decision

Oki’s debut split decision win hinted at under-the-radar grappling, while the loss to Duncan exposed gaps in submission defense. He rebounded by showcasing improved takedown entries and striking volume against Aswell.

Strengths

• High Takedown Accuracy (75%): Consistently brings fights to the mat, controls position, and forces opponents to defend wrestling.
• Stout Ground Defense (86%): Rarely reversed or taken down himself; excels at sprawling and underhook control.
• Power Finishing: 5 KO wins and four first-round finishes show he can end fights early through strikes and ground-and-pound.
• Striking Defense (62%): Better than average at avoiding significant strikes, allowing him to close distance safely.

Weaknesses

• Submission Defense Gap: Despite strong wrestling, his lone UFC submission loss suggests susceptibility to slick jiu-jitsu specialists.
• Average Strike Accuracy (45%): Decent but leaves room for more precise output under pressure.
• Cardio in Deep Waters: With an average fight time of 9:05, he may gas if unable to secure early finishes, creating opportunities for veteran foes.

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Matchup Outlook
This fight pits Jones’ defensive wrestling and late-round resolve against Oki’s grappling pressure and finishing power. Jones must keep it upright, use his reach, and avoid early scrambles, while Oki will look to impose takedowns, drain his foe’s gas tank, and land heavy ground strikes. Strategically, the winner will be the one who can either capitalize on the opponent’s defensive lapses (Jones striking openings / Oki submission counters) or avoid their respective strengths—making this a chess match of styles and adjustments.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

Here’s a snapshot of the latest head-to-head moneyline odds for Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones across leading sportsbooks:

• Mason Jones (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: -180
  • Caesars: -190
  • BetMGM: -185
  • DraftKings: -198
  • BetUS: -180
  • BetRivers: -215

• Bolaji Oki (Underdog)

  • BetOnline.ag: +155
  • Caesars: +160
  • BetMGM: +150
  • DraftKings: +164
  • BetUS: +150
  • BetRivers: +165

Key takeaways:

• Mason Jones is the clear favorite, with prices clustered between -180 and -215.
• Bolaji Oki is the underdog, trading in the +150 to +165 range.
• The largest discrepancy for the favorite is at BetRivers (-215), and for the underdog also at BetRivers (+165).

Best Sportsbook to Back Each Fighter

• If you want to back Mason Jones, the highest return on your risk capital comes at -180 (BetOnline.ag or BetUS), minimizing the juice and maximizing your potential profit per dollar risked.
• If you’re taking the upset with Bolaji Oki, BetRivers offers the juiciest line at +165, giving you the biggest payout for an underdog pick.

Line Movement and Historical Swings

Examining BetOnline.ag’s movement over the past week reveals significant shifts:

• Mason Jones opened around -225 (Aug. 20), eased to -210 (Aug. 23), then to -200, -190, and now -180 (Aug. 25).
• Bolaji Oki mirrored that shift from +190 down to +155 over the same time frame.

These moves suggest steady betting support for both fighters:

• Sharp money initially made Jones an overwhelming favorite, then seesawed as underdog wagers on Oki gained traction.
• Recent softening on Jones’s line (a 45-cent swing from -225 to -180) indicates some bettors are looking for value on Oki’s wrestling and finishing upside.

No sudden shocks or overnight reversals have occurred; the trend has been a gradual narrowing of the gap, reflecting balanced action on both sides.

Payouts and Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a $1,000 wager:

• Betting Mason Jones at -180 (BetOnline.ag or BetUS)

  • Payout: $1,556 total (your $1,000 stake + $556 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~64%

• Betting Bolaji Oki at +165 (BetRivers)

  • Payout: $2,650 total (your $1,000 stake + $1,650 profit)
  • Implied Win Probability: ~37%

These figures highlight the risk/reward trade-off: the favorite is more likely to win but pays out less, while the underdog offers a richer payday if he pulls off the upset.

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By tracking the line movement, you can gauge where the market sees value and which sportsbooks offer the most attractive odds. Whether you side with Jones’ consistent technical output or Oki’s pressure-based finishing game, understanding the odds landscape is crucial for making an informed wager. Good luck!