Pavlovich vs Cortes-Acosta: UFC Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta Fight Analysis

Introduction

The Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta heavyweight showdown is set to ignite the octagon on Saturday, August 23, 2025, as part of the main card at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang. The action kicks off at 10:00 AM UTC at the storied Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Xuhui District, China. This meeting of two top-10 contenders will see #3-ranked Sergei Pavlovich take on #6-ranked Waldo Cortes-Acosta in what promises to be a clash of power, precision, and championship aspirations.

With both fighters entering this bout at 33 years of age, they represent contrasting styles and career trajectories. Pavlovich, the heavy favorite at -260 (BetOnline)⁠/⁠-265 (FanDuel), boasts a devastating 19-3 record, including 15 first-round finishes and a lightning-fast average fight time of 4 minutes, 47 seconds. In contrast, Cortes-Acosta arrives as the underdog at +220 (BetOnline)⁠/⁠+200 (FanDuel), carrying an unbeaten 14-1 slate into the cage. His mix of heavy hands and improving takedown prowess makes him a dangerous dark horse capable of springing an upset.

Why This Fight Matters

• Title Implications: A dominant performance by Pavlovich could cement his status as the division’s next title challenger.
• Momentum Swing: Cortes-Acosta has won five straight, including a unanimous decision over Serghei Spivac at UFC 301, and a crushing second-round KO of Ryan Spann. A victory here would propel him into immediate title contention.
• Stylistic Contrast: Pavlovich fights at a relentless pace, relying on volume and brutal power, while Cortes-Acosta blends a boxer-heavy approach with slick counter striking and improving grappling fundamentals.

The Favorite: Sergei Pavlovich

• Strengths: Explosive knockout power (15 KOs), exceptional first-round finishing ability, sturdy takedown defense (75%).
• Weaknesses: Two of his three career losses have come by decision or TKO, suggesting he can be out‐pointed if he fails to score early. His striking accuracy sits at 44%, slightly below the division average.

The Underdog: Waldo Cortes-Acosta

• Strengths: Well-timed power shots, solid striking accuracy (49%), and a 50% takedown success rate that can neutralize Pavlovich’s aggression.
• Weaknesses: Less one-punch stopping power (6 KOs in 14 wins) and a tendency to fade if pressured over three rounds—the average fight lasts 11 minutes, 50 seconds.

As fight night approaches, bettors and fans alike will be poring over every statistic, trend, and highlight reel. In this analysis, we’ll break down the critical factors—from striking exchanges and takedown battles to cardio and fight IQ—that will determine whether Pavlovich asserts his dominance or Cortes-Acosta stuns the MMA world with a career-defining upset.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Walker vs Zhang can be found on the Walker vs Zhang event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Matchup Overview

The heavyweight clash between Sergei Pavlovich and Waldo Cortes-Acosta pits two powerful finishers against each other in Shanghai. Both athletes, aged 33, bring distinct styles and career arcs to the Octagon. Pavlovich, the #3-ranked Russian MMA specialist, is heavily favored at -260/-265, while Cortes-Acosta, the #6-ranked Dominican striker, enters as the underdog at +220/+200. This section dives into their backgrounds, recent form, and the strengths and vulnerabilities that define their skill sets.

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Sergei Pavlovich

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: MMA (well-rounded with heavy emphasis on power striking)
• UFC Debut: Nov. 24, 2018
• Height/Reach: 75″ / 84″ arm reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Decision – Unanimous) – Feb. 1, 2025
2. Loss vs Alexander Volkov (Decision – Unanimous) – Jun. 22, 2024
3. Loss vs Tom Aspinall (KO/TKO) – Nov. 11, 2023
4. Win vs Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO, R1 – 3:08) – Apr. 22, 2023
5. Win vs Tai Tuivasa (KO/TKO, R1 – 0:54) – Dec. 3, 2022

Strengths

• Devastating Power: 15 knockouts in 19 wins; 15 first-round finishes.
• Fast Finisher: Avg. fight time 4:47, forcing opponents to react instantly or face early stoppage.
• Takedown Defense: 75%, effectively neutralizing wrestlers and keeping fights standing.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy: 44%, below elite heavyweight levels, which can lead to energy waste on missed shots.
• Cardio Vulnerability: Two decision losses (Volkov, Rozenstruik) suggest that if opponents weather the early storm, Pavlovich can be out-worked over three rounds.
• Susceptibility to Counters: His aggressive forward pressure has been punished by technical strikers (e.g., Aspinall KO).

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Dominican Republic
• Fighting Style: Striker with improving grappling
• UFC Debut: Oct. 29, 2022
• Height/Reach: 76″ / 70″ arm reach

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. Win vs Serghei Spivac (Decision – Unanimous) – Jun. 7, 2025
2. Win vs Ryan Spann (KO/TKO, R2 – 4:48) – Mar. 15, 2025
3. Win vs Robelis Despaigne (Decision – Unanimous) – May 11, 2024
4. Win vs Andrei Arlovski (Decision – Unanimous) – Jan. 13, 2024
5. Win vs Lukasz Brzeski (KO/TKO, R1 – 3:01) – Aug. 26, 2023

Strengths

• Balanced Striking: 49% significant strike accuracy and 56% defense, allowing him to land clean shots while minimizing damage.
• Grappling Threat: 50% takedown accuracy; can mix levels to break Pavlovich’s rhythm.
• Endurance: Avg. fight time 11:50, demonstrating ability to maintain pace into championship rounds.

Weaknesses

• One-Punch Power: Six KOs in 14 wins; less likely to finish Pavlovich in R1.
• Submission Game: Only one submission victory; if the fight hits the mat, he may struggle against a savvy grappler.
• Physical Disadvantage: Shorter arm reach (70″ vs. Pavlovich’s 84″) could force him to close distance under fire.

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This detailed profile highlights how Pavlovich’s explosive offense clashes with Cortes-Acosta’s well-rounded durability and improving takedown game. In the next sections, we’ll break down how these attributes manifest in key striking exchanges, grappling scrambles, and the fight’s potential turning points.

Odds & Betting Lines Analysis

Current Odds Snapshot

As fight night approaches, the Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta matchup has drawn clear action on both sides of the line. Here’s a breakdown of the current betting odds at two of the most popular sportsbooks:

• BetOnline.ag
– Sergei Pavlovich: –260
– Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +220

• FanDuel
– Sergei Pavlovich: –265
– Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +200

Sergei Pavlovich stands out as the heavy favorite, trading roughly at –260 to –265, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta remains the underdog at +200 to +220. The edge in pricing for an underdog wager goes to BetOnline.ag (+220), whereas BetOnline.ag also offers the slightly better price on Pavlovich (–260 vs. FanDuel’s –265).

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Line Movement & Odds History

Tracking the line movement gives insight into how betting public sentiment and sharp action have shaped this fight’s odds.

Sergei Pavlovich (–260 / –265)

• BetOnline.ag: opened at –255 → shifted to –265 → eased back to –260
• FanDuel: opened and remains at –265

Pavlovich saw an early drop from –255 to –265, indicating strong early money on the favorite. The slight pull back to –260 suggests balanced interest or minor sharp relief.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+220 / +200)

• BetOnline.ag: opened at +215 → drifted out to +225 → tightened to +220
• FanDuel: listed at +200 (steady)

Cortes-Acosta’s line experienced more fluctuation. The underdog price briefly softened to +225 before bettors latched back on at +220. FanDuel’s stable +200 figures reveal a more conservative market approach, but the higher payoff at BetOnline.ag speaks to better value for underdog backers.

No extremely large swings occurred, but the shifts of 10–15 cents on both sides reflect pockets of heavy action and strategic line adjustments by sportsbooks.

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Betting Scenarios & Payouts

If you’re considering a $1,000 wager, here’s what your payout would look like:

• $1,000 on Sergei Pavlovich at –260 (BetOnline.ag)
– Total Return: $1,384 (profit of $384)

• $1,000 on Waldo Cortes-Acosta at +220 (BetOnline.ag)
– Total Return: $3,200 (profit of $2,200)

Clearly, the underdog route offers a more enticing upside. However, Pavlovich’s status as the favorite means a higher likelihood of securing a smaller, steadier profit.

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Implied Probabilities & Best Sportsbook

Based on the current odds, implied win probabilities are approximately:

• Sergei Pavlovich: ~72% chance to win
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta: ~31% chance to win

(Note: These figures account for standard sportsbook vigorish and are rounded estimates.)

When weighing sportsbook choice:

• Best Favorite Odds: BetOnline.ag at –260
• Best Underdog Odds: BetOnline.ag at +220

BetOnline.ag emerges as the top destination for both sides of this heavyweight clash, delivering superior pricing compared to FanDuel’s –265/+200 offerings. Whether you’re chasing the safer route with Pavlovich or the upside scream with Cortes-Acosta, aligning with the book that maximizes your edge is paramount.